All Blog Posts from Horserace

(NEW YORK) After grinding through 18 months on the presidential campaign trail, Hillary Clinton was ready to let off some steam at a party in New York City tonight. Mayor Michael Bloomberg threw the “welcome back” celebration for the woman who is now readjusting to life as the junior senator from New York.

Chevy Chase may have been the professional comedian in attendance, but it was one of Sen. Clinton’s jokes about Mayor Bloomberg—which had a particularly long setup—that had the crowd laughing the hardest.

“I was very touched by Mike’s concern for me over these last months, every since the campaign ended, and you know I was really moved that he wanted to talk about the campaign,” Clinton deadpanned. “What happened, how it happened, how you did it, what was the reaction that you got, what was effective and what wasn’t effective, you know, what worked in advertising and in direct mail, and I mean he was so interested in me that I was just transformed.”

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(NEW YORK) After grinding through 18 months on the presidential campaign trail, Hillary Clinton was ready to let off some steam at a party in New York City tonight. Mayor Michael Bloomberg threw the “welcome back” celebration for the woman who is now readjusting to life as the junior senator from New York.

Chevy Chase may have been the professional comedian in attendance, but it was one of Sen. Clinton’s jokes about Mayor Bloomberg—which had a particularly long setup—that had the crowd laughing the hardest.

“I was very touched by Mike’s concern for me over these last months, every since the campaign ended, and you know I was really moved that he wanted to talk about the campaign,” Clinton deadpanned. “What happened, how it happened, how you did it, what was the reaction that you got, what was effective and what wasn’t effective, you know, what worked in advertising and in direct mail, and I mean he was so interested in me that I was just transformed.”

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As CBS News' Steve Chaggaris noted Wednesday, political junkies this week planned to closely watch independent New York mayor Michael Bloomberg's address this morning to the Independence Party of Minnesota, where some thought Bloomberg might endorse a candidate. John McCain met with the party's chairman, Craig Swaggert, two weeks ago; along with his party, Swaggert is generally pro-McCain.

Bloomberg has now given that address – and, perhaps unsurprisingly, he is keeping whatever leanings he might have close to the vest. As the Associated Press reports, "Bloomberg praised both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain. He says both are capable of acting independently and standing up to partisan special interests." No endorsements here.

The billionaire, who reportedly considered a presidential run of his own, complimented Obama for his stances on background checks at gun shows and on the federal gas tax. He praised McCain for his positions on immigration, campaign finance reform and global warming.

New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg famously flirted with a presidential run before apparently concluding that it wasn't a good idea. Now he is being discussed as a possible vice presidential candidate – if not by the likely nominees themselves, at least in the media.

The latest what-about-Bloomberg speculation comes from New York Magazine's John Heilemann, who suggests that the mayor could be a plausible choice for either Barack Obama or John McCain. (Incidentally, when was the last time it was even possible to imagine that the same man could potentially fit the bill for either major party candidate?) Bloomberg, Heilemann notes, would give both candidates more credibility when it comes to handling the economy, potentially the defining issue of the election. Here's his case for McCain/Bloomberg:

He would bolster McCain in critical swing states such as Florida, New Jersey (a state the Republicans have hopes of putting into play), and Pennsylvania—and also in California, where the McCain–Bloomberg–Arnold Schwarzenegger troika might compel Obama to spend time and money in a state that should be a gimme. He would enhance McCain’s image as a moderate, a maverick, and provide him with a riposte to the charge that he’s a clone of George W. Bush. (Is there any human being on Earth less like Dick Cheney than Bloomberg?) And if the mayor were willing to plow some of his fortune into the race—assuming election law allows it—he would let McCain close or, if he were feeling generous, eradicate completely the vast disparity between the two sides when it comes to moola.

And Obama/Bloomberg:

If the central doubt about Obama is his lack of experience (and, in particular, executive experience), Bloomberg would provide a degree of reassurance. Picking him would substantiate and reinforce Obama’s message of pragmatism and post-partisanship. And he would go a long way toward mitigating Obama’s problem with Jewish voters, a dilemma brought on by a combination of his association with the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the nuthouse rumors that he is a closet Muslim, and his willingness to talk to anti-Israel crackpots such as Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

A necessary disclaimer: Bloomberg on either ticket remains something of a long shot, as there are plenty of reasons he wouldn't be a great idea for either candidate. (Starting, for McCain, with the mayor's positions on gun control and abortion.) See here for more.

"Something is happening in America," is how Rep. John Lewis explained his decision to cast his super delegate vote for Barack Obama over the candidate he had previously endorsed, Hillary Clinton.

Whatever is happening, New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is hearing it too. Rather than spend up to $1 billion of his own money on an independent presidential bid, Bloomberg tells the world in a New York Times op-ed today that he will not be a candidate. "I have watched this campaign unfold, and I am hopeful that the current campaigns can rise to the challenge by offering truly independent leadership," he writes.

The Bloom boom is bust. Not for a lack of ambition, to be sure. Bloomberg has spent the past year largely denying any aspirations while his aides and advisers were busy preparing the strategic groundwork for a run. Had there been an opening, the mayor could have launched a full-fledged campaign with the snap of his fingers and a stroke of his pen on a check.

In citing the "current campaigns," Bloomberg is acknowledging there is no opening for a candidate who would seek a plurality of voters in the broad middle of the political spectrum. His bid hinged on the parties nominating candidates from their left and right bases, not those who attracted the support of moderates, independents and cross-over voters from the opposing party.

With presumptive GOP nominee John McCain and Democratic front-runner Barack Obama, there is no void in the center for him to fill. If this is the matchup we'll see in the fall, those independents and moderates will likely be the swing voters who will decide the race and both candidates have an established track record of attracting their support. Moreover, those voters are likely to be more openly courted than in past elections.

McCain has a problem with his base. Conservatives are slowly warming to him but the uneasiness remains. Obama would have the seeming luxury of a united Democratic party behind him, a party hungry and optimistic about their chances in November. But both will face pressures to stiff-arm the more vocal and extreme figures in their party if they want the center. McCain has a head start on that. It may not be the worst thing for him to face the opposition of the Ann Coulters of the GOP. After some prodding, Obama both rejected and denounced Louis Farrakhan's support. He may need more "Sister Souljah" moments in the future.

Having had "lesser of two evils" choices in recent elections that revolved around the polarization of the two parties, independents may get their moment in the spotlight this time around. It may be a campaign that's just as close, but it may also be one that isn't dominated by issues important to the wings of the parties. As Lewis and Bloomberg acknowledge, something is happening.

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New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, whose aides and advisers have openly discussed plans for a possible independent candidacy for the billionaire, dismissed suggestions that third-party candidates could play a spoiler role in November.

Asked about fears among some Democrats that a candidacy by Ralph Nader could harm their party's nominee in the fall, Bloomberg told reporters, "this business of Ralph Nader being a spoiler -- you know, in any three-way race, two of the three are going to be spoilers. … Everybody's got a right to do it -- you're not spoiling anything. … If people want to vote for you, let them vote for you, and why shouldn't they?" he added, according to the AP.

Bloomberg publicly says he is not a candidate but he – and his ability to pour the kind of money such a campaign would require – have spurred constant buzz over the past months about his plans. Asked if it was too late to launch such a candidacy, Bloomberg displayed some deep knowledge of the ballot access process, saying, "it's getting close to being too late. It would take a lot of money, which Ralph Nader doesn't have, to get on all the ballots ... some states make it difficult, some states make it easier."

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg continues to evade questions about whether he'll launch an independent run for the White House, but today the group of people urging him to enter the race grew just a bit larger.

Two founding members of Unity08, an effort to field a bipartisan "unity ticket" nominated via the Internet, announced today they're establishing an online petition drive to encourage Bloomberg to enter the race. Former Republican consultant Doug Bailey and Gerald Rafshoon, who served in the Carter administration, praised Bloomberg as a competent, non-ideological leader who could bring people together and solve the country's problems.

"After seven years, this country is ready for a competent leader," Rafshoon said at a press conference in Washington. "It's ready for a non-ideological approach to our problems, and it's ready to stop the partisan bickering that goes on between parties and within parties."

Bailey and Rafshoon said their draft campaign is totally separate from Unity08, which has effectively shut down due to fundraising issues and a dispute with the Federal Election Commission. They also said their new project isn't connected to Bloomberg in any way, though they have told one of the mayor's top aides -- Kevin Sheekey, who's reportedly laying the groundwork for a Bloomberg bid -- what they're up to.

"I think it's fair to say he smiled," Bailey said when asked about Sheekey's response.

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New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg continues to insist he has "no plans" to run for president. But residents of Iowa and New Hampshire are likely to see him only days before they vote, thanks to a full-page ad Bloomberg and other big-city mayors are placing in the states' largest newspapers to highlight the issue of illegal guns.

Bloomberg's face is prominent in the ad, where he's joined by other members of Mayors Against Illegal Guns, which he co-chairs. The ad, now running in the Des Moines Register and the New Hampshire Union Leader, urges both candidates and voters to focus on the spread of illegal firearms, and challenges those seeking the White House to address the issue.

If Bloomberg were to run, he would do so as an independent, so it's not as though he could have any impact on the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. But his mere appearance in newspapers in both states -- in an ad he was presumably OK with -- is going to remind people of his presence just when the election is heating up and draw national media attention.

Reports indicate that Bloomberg won't decide on running until after the nominees of both parties are known, a circumstance that is likely only about a month away. In other words, now is a pretty good time for Bloomberg to be in the spotlight -- something the new ad could accomplish.

How easy is it to get nearly unlimited press attention for doing nothing? If you happen to be a billionaire mayor of New York City, it appears to be a snap. Every few weeks or so, the media breathlessly reports on the possibility that Mike Bloomberg may decide to spend a chunk of his vast fortune on an independent bid for the White House.

Forget the fact that the mayor himself has repeatedly played the reluctant warrior and has in fact said he wants to spend that money on philanthropic causes instead of television ads, he – or those surrounding him – keep the dream alive. Forget that we're locked in the most exciting and unpredictable campaign in memory. Forget the possibility that we could already have two New Yorkers as the nominees of the two parties, both of whom occupy the center of the political spectrum that Bloomberg would supposedly enter the race for. And forget the fact that over a dozen very serious candidates have spent a year honestly subjecting themselves to the political process -- meeting voters, refining policy positions and exposing themselves to media scrutiny. Money, it's said, trumps all.

Whether it's covers of national magazines (remember the one where he and Arnold Schwarzenegger were touted as some sort of "dream" team?), breathless reports of what someone told someone else that Bloomberg had said to yet another person or the endless talk of strategy, Bloomberg has nearly managed to become a candidate without lifting so much as a finger.

The New York Post reports today that Bloomberg aides have "reached out" to political consultants inquiring about their availability for a presidential campaign. It has been suggested that such an effort would rest primarily on television ads financed by his fortune. With the mayor's track record of earning loads of free media by doing nothing, it doesn't appear he would need to spend much at all.

Every couple of weeks, we're subjected to stories about some Bloomberg's machination – such as his trip to New Hampshire (relatively meaningless in a general election), his speech to Google or his highly public meeting with Barack Obama. And every time, the mayor says he's not running. Actually, he more often says he has no "plans" to run. But his close aides do and haven't been at all shy about sharing them. Maybe we should take the mayor at his word, at least until he changes it.

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New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg was on CBS News' The Early Show this morning to talk about his call for a national carbon tax, but of course the conversation soon turned to his possible presidential aspirations.

Speculation over whether the popular billionaire mayor would run next year as an independent candidate heated up over the summer when Bloomberg announced he had changed his party affiliation from Republican to independent. But since then he has repeatedly denied that he was going to run.

Today on the Early Show was no different.

Co-anchor Harry Smith brought in this week's "Newsweek" cover story, in which Bloomberg's political adviser, Kevin Sheekey, says he has a plan for Bloomberg to run. In the article, Sheekey says that Bloomberg will run only if he can convince the mayor he can win the Electoral College.

Harry Smith then asked: "Why won't you announce now?"

Bloomberg then gave his standard answers to the question -- "Because I have 787, 86 days left… I have the greatest job in the world."

Smith pushed Bloomberg again, but he wouldn't take the bait.

"Look, I'm not a candidate for president," he said.

So will Bloomberg run? Perhaps only the mayor himself really knows the answer to that question. However, speculation was on the rise this week with the "Newsweek" article and the mayor on the cover. The headline: The Billion Dollar Wildcard.