All Blog Posts from Horserace

The attention last night was on Hillary Clinton's win over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary, but that was not the only contest to be decided. Voters across the state also voted in primaries for House candidates to run in the fall.

Of the state's 19 congressional districts, there were competitive primaries in four. The most competitive was the Republican primary in District 10, where businessman Chris Hackett beat businessman Dan Meuser 52 percent to 48 percent.

Hackett won in the Northeastern Pennsylvania district despite being heavily outspent by Meuser. Both candidates used their personal wealth in the campaign, totaling $2.6 million.

Hackett will face freshmen Democratic Rep. Chris Carney in November. In 2006, Carney was the first Democrat in four decades elected to Congress from the district when he beat scandal-ridden former Rep. Don Sherwood. Republicans will now be counting on Hackett to put the seat back in the Republican column.

Elsewhere in the state, Centre County GOP chairman Glenn Thompson won a nine-way race for the Republican nomination in the state's 5th district in Central Pennsylvania with 19 percent of the vote. Thompson will face off against Democratic primary winner Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken. Thompson will be heavily favored in the race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. John Peterson.

Also, businessman Steve O'Donnell won the Democratic primary in the 18th district outside Pittsburgh for the chance to run against Republican Rep. Tim Murphy. And Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, the director of the Lake Erie Arboretum, won the right to challenge Republican Rep. Phil English in the 3rd district in northwest Pennsylvania.

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The attention last night was on Hillary Clinton's win over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary, but that was not the only contest to be decided. Voters across the state also voted in primaries for House candidates to run in the fall.

Of the state's 19 congressional districts, there were competitive primaries in four. The most competitive was the Republican primary in District 10, where businessman Chris Hackett beat businessman Dan Meuser 52 percent to 48 percent.

Hackett won in the Northeastern Pennsylvania district despite being heavily outspent by Meuser. Both candidates used their personal wealth in the campaign, totaling $2.6 million.

Hackett will face freshmen Democratic Rep. Chris Carney in November. In 2006, Carney was the first Democrat in four decades elected to Congress from the district when he beat scandal-ridden former Rep. Don Sherwood. Republicans will now be counting on Hackett to put the seat back in the Republican column.

Elsewhere in the state, Centre County GOP chairman Glenn Thompson won a nine-way race for the Republican nomination in the state's 5th district in Central Pennsylvania with 19 percent of the vote. Thompson will face off against Democratic primary winner Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken. Thompson will be heavily favored in the race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. John Peterson.

Also, businessman Steve O'Donnell won the Democratic primary in the 18th district outside Pittsburgh for the chance to run against Republican Rep. Tim Murphy. And Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, the director of the Lake Erie Arboretum, won the right to challenge Republican Rep. Phil English in the 3rd district in northwest Pennsylvania.

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In a campaign where the unexpected is the only certain bet, Nevada's caucuses tomorrow are a perfect illustration of this crazy political year. In what other year would an important nominating contest where the turnout estimates range from 20,000 to 100,000 seem so at home?

All bets are off in Nevada tomorrow as state Democrats gather in unfamiliar circumstances to add their voice to the fierce battle between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Like so much else in this campaign, the advantages for one candidate seem clear and the outcome appears a safe bet.

Even as he was suffering a stunning setback in New Hampshire, Obama was getting the endorsement of Nevada's influential Culinary union, widely seen as the state's premier organizational tool in the caucuses. The state's teachers union has not endorsed but is considered to be in the Clinton camp. They filed a lawsuit after Obama napped the Culinary support to try and stop party rules which allow voters to caucus in casinos – where plenty of those union members work and can participate even while on the clock.

That suit was thrown out yesterday, clearing the way for what appears on the face of it to be an Obama win tomorrow. But don't bet the ranch. Nobody, it seems, has a handle on just what the cards will look like when they're finally dealt.

Union members are furious at the attempt. In a radio ad yesterday, the Culinary union began running a Spanish-language ad calling Clinton "shameless" for allowing supporters to file the lawsuit. "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people," the ad says. "Hillary Clinton supporters went to court to prevent working people to vote this Saturday - that is an embarrassment. Hillary Clinton supporters want to prevent people from voting in their workplace on Saturday. This is unforgivable!”

But both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have invested heavily in organization in the state. Obama may have the most powerful union but Clinton and Edwards have influential labor support of their own. And polls in the state indicate any one of the three could emerge with a win.

In 2004, when the state was relegated to a basically meaningless contest, just 9,000 Democrats turned out for the nominating caucuses. As many as ten times that number may participate tomorrow in over 500 locations to take part in a process which is difficult for even Iowans to navigate – and they have decades of experience doing it. They'll be showing up at more than 5,000 sites across the state. High stakes with low odds of predicting a winner. Sounds kind of like the perfect description of campaign '08.

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Fred Thompson's campaign, left for dead after a lackluster effort in last fall's run-up to Iowa and New Hampshire, is showing some signs of life in South Carolina. On the days of the New Hampshire primary, Thompson headed south and began digging in for what could be his last stand.

Is it paying off? Yes and no. According to the latest Palmetto Poll, conducted by the University of Clemson, Thompson remains in a distant fourth, garnering just 10 percent. John McCain leads the GOP race with 29 percent, Mike Huckabee gets 22 percent and Mitt Romney is third with 13 percent. In the August Palmetto Poll, Thompson led the field with 19 percent.

But while Thompson's poll numbers might not be soaring, his rhetoric has gotten sharper over these past ten days. Just yesterday, the former Tennessee senator took aim at each one of those currently ahead of him. Thompson accused Romney of pandering and said his approach to the economy is less-than conservative. "Romney was very effective in Michigan doing what he does best and that is tailoring his message to a particular audience," said Thompson. "He basically - as I could pick up with it - promised that the federal government was going to come in and bail out Michigan when he got elected president. Very conservative notion, don't you think?"

While taking it easier on his longtime friend McCain, Thompson still managed to get in a dig about his support for last year's failed immigration reform bill. "I knew that he was on the wrong track," he said of McCain. "And the American people said so and they rejected that bill." Thompson then took aim at Huckabee. "At least McCain's record's been out there for about 20 years. We've got some Johnny-come-latelies now that don't want to talk about their record and they're hoping there's not enough time for anybody to even to examine it, because where they've been in the past."

This is the feisty Thompson that has been on display at the most recent debates and it's made him a much different candidate than the laconic manner in which he carried himself throughout the fall and early winter. Despite the rejuvenation, it may be too little, too late even in an incredibly jumbled and unpredictable field.

But Thompson could prove to be a spoiler in the race. After finishing second in Michigan, McCain needs a win in South Carolina to reclaim the small burst of New Hampshire momentum which vaulted him to the top of national polls. Huckabee needs a victory in South Carolina to prove that his Iowa win was no fluke and that his claims of Southern appeal are solid. (Romney's win Tuesday takes some of the pressure off of him in a state that would be difficult for him under most circumstances). Between McCain and Huckabee, who does Thompson pull support from most?

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Fred Thompson has a new ad out in South Carolina, "Always."

"Friends, we're in a fight for our conservative values," Thompson says in the spot, staring directly into the camera. "I'm a conservative. Always have been. Always will be."

"I'll fight against amnesty and benefits for illegals," Thompson continues. "I'll work to keep your taxes low and keep a prosperous economy. I'm 100% pro-life, that's why South Carolina Citizens for Life endorsed me. And you can trust me to protect our security against Islamic radicals."

You can watch the ad here.

Thompson is widely seen as needing to win in South Carolina, where GOP voters go to the polls on Saturday, to have any chance at winning the Republican presidential nomination. Recent polls show Thompson in fourth place in the state, behind Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and Mitt Romney.

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If you want a clear snapshot of the strategies the Republican presidential candidates are pursuing in this wide-open race, just watch or read a transcript of last night's debate in South Carolina. Just about every one laid out their road maps for the next week.

First, Mitt Romney, who was speaking more to primary voters in Michigan than the Palmetto State, quickly jumped on the opening question about the state of the economy to bring up a quote by John McCain about jobs. The Romney camp is putting just about all its chips on winning that state's primary next Tuesday and has been eager to point out the fact that some of McCain's "straight talk" of late has included a contention that some jobs lost in Michigan won't be coming back.

Trying to cast McCain as a pessimist on jobs in the economically depressed state is certainly understandable and when McCain was asked whether he had any immediate economic stimulus plans, the Arizona Senator fell back on his litany of the importance of spending cuts and fiscal discipline. Mike Huckabee is also competing in Michigan but it's McCain and Romney who are vying for the same pool of voters. Give a slight edge to Romney in the exchange.

But there was another contest happening within the debate, this one between Fred Thompson and Huckabee and aimed directly at South Carolina primary voters. Thompson was far livelier than he has been in the entire campaign, playing the part of a political Rip Van Winkle waking up after a year-long nap. The former Tennessee senator, who is making South Carolina a make-or-break moment, not only woke up, but leaped out of bed roaring and ready to go.

His strategy was clearly to fire away early and often at Huckabee, with whom he is competing for social conservatives in the state. It didn’t take long for Thompson to declare the nomination contest a "battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party" and let loose a litany of charges against Huckabee's record, claiming the former Arkansas governor would "bring about liberal economic policies, liberal foreign policies." Huckabee defended himself adequately with his customary good humor and likeable persona and later on in the debate scored the biggest ovation of the evening with a stirring defense of his religious beliefs. But Thompson may have made some inroads if for no other reason than he simply woke up.

Rudy Giuliani, not a factor in either Michigan of South Carolina, at one point seemed to defend his rope-a-dope strategy (which he has been talking about too much) by pointing out Ronald Reagan's 50-state strategy. The former New York City mayor has perhaps benefited more than anyone except Huckabee from the dozens of debates. His presence in the race may have faded without them. Ron Paul … well, he was Ron Paul and the rest of the field is damn glad to have him up on stage with them.

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Republicans Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney both unveiled new ads today as part of their last-minute push in Iowa, but that's about where the similarities end: While Thompson has taken the standard end-of-the-campaign route with a spot summing up his principles, Romney's ad is only the latest to claim that rival Mike Huckabee's record is inferior to his own.

Thompson's ad is basically a roundup of various endorsements and plaudits from conservative publications and organizations, and it includes praise for his tax plan, his immigration policy (oddly enough, from National Review, which has endorsed Romney), his plan to rebuild the military, and, finally, his support from the anti-abortion National Right to Life Committee.

It then repeats what has been the Thompson campaign's mantra of late – "the clear conservative choice."

On the other hand, the Romney campaign continues to cast Huckabee in a negative light in an ad that's visually similar to past efforts. Some of the contrasts are repeats, too, including mention of Huckabee's support for granting in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. It also quotes Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who said Huckabee's recent critique of President Bush's foreign policy was "ludicrous."

Conventional wisdom is that Iowans don't care for ads like Romney's especially this late in the game. Then again, some polls indicate Romney has been gaining on Huckabee ever since he started drawing comparisons on air. Only six days until we'll know if his plan actually works.

Christmas may bring a short break for the candidates, but it doesn't mean they won't be thinking, worrying or strategizing about the campaign. With the holiday coming up, CBS News senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield has a list of the gifts the candidates should be wishing for under the tree. He shared the list on The Early Show this morning.

Mike Huckabee: WEIGHT — Not the weight he lost, the 110 pounds… political weight, gravitas. People know him as an agreeable charismatic guy, but he has to convince people he's actually the right guy in the Oval Office.

Rudy Giuliani: LONG DIVISION — Which means he needs the Republican field to stay divided for as long as possible. It looks less and less likely he can win an early contest. But if the early contests are split, then his strategy of waiting til Florida and February 5 has more resonance than if one guy emerges.

Mitt Romney: A CASE OF BUYER'S REMORSE — He needs the social conservatives in Iowa to take a look at the guy they flocked to, Mike Huckabee, and say you know what, 'I don't think so, he's got too many problems.' A second gift for Mitt Romney is somebody to muss his hair. It's too perfect. A lot of people have noticed the startling resemblance between Mitt Romney and that of the Muppet game show host Guy Smiley. He's got to have a mussed-up hairdo soon.

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Here’s a quick rundown of what's shaking in the campaign world this afternoon:

Fred Thompson gets in on the endorsement game, nabbing the backing of Iowa Rep. Steve King (R), according to CBS News Chief Political Consultant Marc Ambinder, who notes that the decision was a surprise to Mitt Romney's campaign which had figured to get King's endorsement. Also, Iowa Rep. Dave Loebsack (D) has endorsed Barack Obama.

John McCain has launched his first radio ads in South Carolina, featuring Senator Lindsay Graham, whose message to GOP primary voters is: "John McCain is the only candidate for president prepared to be Commander-in-Chief on day one. No candidate can match his record of service. And as all the polls indicate, he's the only Republican who can beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. So our party and our nation need John McCain."

The scrutiny of Mike Huckabee continues with Newsweek reporting on allegations that the former governor's so, David Huckabee, was implicated in the hanging of a dog at a Boy Scout camp in 1998. No charges were filed but a former director of the Arkansas state police tells the magazine that Huckabee and others pressured him not to investigate complaints from animal rights activists. Huckabee denies doing so and the campaign said David Huckabee regrets the incident.

From CBS News' John Bentley, on the campaign trail with Fred Thompson:

Fred Thompson had more harsh words for the National Intelligence Estimate report on Iran today.

“It's awfully convenient for a lot of people: the administration gets to say its policies worked; the Democrats get to claim we should have eased up on Iran a long time ago; and Russia and China can claim sanctions on Iran are not necessary,” said Thompson in Anderson, SC, today. “Who does it help out most of all? Iran.”

He went to say that sanctions against Iran are still necessary, and told the crowd to keep one thing in mind: “Remember what your mama told you – if something appears to be too good to be true, it probably is.”

Thompson also repeated his stance that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) area of Alaska should be opened for drilling “so we’re not so reliant on bad parts of the world,” but admitted that it is “a relatively small part of the solution.”

And since he was left out of the “don’t ask, don’t tell” discussion concerning gay servicemembers at the last debate, Thompson said he was in favor of the program. He explained that he supported it because it is a military issue, not a social issue.

“I depend on those who’ve spent a lot of time in the military and the people that I’ve talked to say it is a policy that is working,” he said.