All Blog Posts from Horserace

Actress/comedian Tina Fey gained a lot of much-deserved attention (and ratings) for her spot-on impersonation of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin on “Saturday Night Live,” but in retrospect, it may have been another of the show’s creations that captured the true zeitgeist of the 2008 election.

In the weeks leading up to Election Day, Keenan Thompson played a “financial expert” for the show’s “Weekend Update” segments named Oscar Rogers, a not-so-subtle nod to the hoards of real such experts who have flooded TV screens throughout the current financial crisis. Nattily attired as if he just stepped off the market floor, this sage dispenser of financial advice had just one thing to say – somebody better “fix it!”

“How do we go about fixing it specifically?” he asked. “Take it one step at a time. Identify the problem -- fix it! Identify another problem -- fix it! Proceed as necessary until it is all fixed!” (You can watch the performance here, it’s about 2:10 into the clip).

A big part of the reason why President-election Barack Obama’s message of “change” resonated so powerfully was the sense among the electorate that things were broken and needed to be fixed, especially on the economy which voters consistently said was the most important issue by far. Less obvious is whether they voted for any specific remedy or simply a wholesale change to --- something.

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the son of a onetime GM president, takes to the op-ed pages of the New York Times today to voice his opposition to the proposed bailout of the automotive industry without some radical changes in the companies.

Romney, considered a potential aspirant for the White House in 2012, argues that in order to save the Big Three automakers, there will have to be changes in labor agreements, management and long-term investments in technology.

“It is not wrong to ask for government help,” Romney writes, “but the automakers should come up with a win-win proposition. I believe the federal government should invest substantially more in basic research — on new energy sources, fuel-economy technology, materials science and the like — that will ultimately benefit the automotive industry, along with many others. I believe Washington should raise energy research spending to $20 billion a year, from the $4 billion that is spent today. The research could be done at universities, at research labs and even through public-private collaboration. The federal government should also rectify the imbedded tax penalties that favor foreign carmakers. But don’t ask Washington to give shareholders and bondholders a free pass — they bet on management and they lost.”

Barack Obama has a new, two-minute ad out featuring the candidate speaking to camera about his economic plan. The ad will run in key states and nationally, according to the campaign.

Partial text: “I know that that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis. But not by driving down the very same path. And that's what this election's all about. On taxes, John McCain and I have very different ideas. Instead of giving hundreds of billions in new tax breaks to big corporations and oil companies, I'll cut taxes for small and startup businesses that are the backbone of our economy. Instead of more tax breaks for corporations that outsource American jobs, I'll give them to companies who create jobs here. Instead of extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest -- I'll focus on you. … If you make less than a quarter million a year, you won’t see your taxes raised one penny under my plan. And seniors making less than fifty thousand, who are struggling with the rising costs of food and drugs on fixed incomes, won’t pay income taxes at all.” Watch it:



Meanwhile, John McCain’s campaign is up with a new ad using former president Bill Clinton to bolster the campaign’s claim that McCain tried to push for more regulation of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The ad will run nationally.

“John McCain fought to rein in Fannie and Freddie,” an announcer begins. “The Post says McCain ‘pushed for stronger regulation’... while Mr. Obama was ‘notably silent.’ But, Democrats blocked the reforms. Loans soared. Then, the bubble burst. And, taxpayers are on the hook for billions. Bill Clinton knows who is responsible.” Clip of Bill Clinton, saying, “I think the responsibility that the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was President to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." Announcer: “You're right, Mr. President. It didn't have to happen.” Watch it:

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As the fallout begins to flood through the halls of Congress in the wake of the defeat of the bailout compromise in the House, CBS News’ chief political consultant Marc Ambinder looks at what it might mean to John McCain. The Republican candidate suspended his campaign momentarily last week to return to Washington to work on the crisis. His chief strategist, Steve Schmidt, yesterday touted the results. “What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all of the parties to the table,” Schmidt told NBC News, “including the House Republicans, whose votes were needed to pass this.”

The McCain campaign has released a statement on the vote:

“From the minute John McCain suspended his campaign and arrived in Washington to address this crisis, he was attacked by the Democratic leadership: Senators Obama and Reid, Speaker Pelosi and others. Their partisan attacks were an effort to gain political advantage during a national economic crisis. By doing so, they put at risk the homes, livelihoods and savings of millions of American families. Barack Obama failed to lead, phoned it in, attacked John McCain, and refused to even say if he supported the final bill. Just before the vote, when the outcome was still in doubt, Speaker Pelosi gave a strongly worded partisan speech and poisoned the outcome. This bill failed because Barack Obama and the Democrats put politics ahead of country.”

Now that the bill has been defeated with larger-than-expected GOP defections, Ambinder asks: “If McCain wanted credit for passage, should he share some of the blame for its defeat? Two thirds of half Republicans voted for its defeat...after a weekend of telephone call diplomacy from McCain.”

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After Barack Obama’s campaign unveiled a two-minute ad on the economy this morning, John McCain’s camp responded with one of its own. The 30-second ad mostly features the candidate talking straight to the camera, like Obama.

“You, the American workers, are the best in the world,” McCain says. “But your economic security has been put at risk by the greed of Wall Street. That's unacceptable. My opponent's only solutions are talk and taxes. I'll reform Wall Street and fix Washington. I've taken on tougher guys than this before.” An announcer then intones, “Change is coming. John McCain.” Watch it:

It’s one of the most universally recognized political slogans in modern history and when Bill Clinton told voters that he felt their pain, he made instant and lasting connections with voters who saw the economic good times of the nation slipping away.

Fifteen years later, the presidential campaign is in a similar situation, this time with both candidates seeking to make that visceral sell to convince voters that they “get it.” John McCain has had a tough couple of days trying to get his message apart. He spent the better part of the past 48 hours seeking to erase the perception that he doesn’t understand the perilous situation most Americans perceive themselves to be in.

Having said that the “fundamentals” of the economy are strong on Monday, the Republican candidate quickly shifted into populist mode, blaming Wall Street fat cats for betraying their social contract and getting religion on financial regulation. Nobody wants to look at their 401K statements these days but outside of the mess on Wall Street, the underpinnings of the economy are not deteriorating – at least not yet. Energy prices are creeping down, unemployment is up but historically not at unhealthy levels and the vast majority of homeowners continue to pay their mortgages each month.

But McCain can hardly point those things out lest he come off as looking insensitive to the concerns that even those economically healthy voters may “feel.” It’s not about some cold, statistical analysis, this is about underlying fear that what is happening on Wall Street is coming to Main Street. So, he dropped the talk of a fundamentally sound economy and went with outrage about a system run amok.

Barack Obama, of course, has been in outrage mode since the beginning of the current financial crisis, blaming the Republican administration, and by extension McCain, for fiddling while the big banks burned.

Today, Obama is out with a two-minute ad, running nationally, in which he tries to pivot from outrage to optimistic solutions. Speaking directly to the camera, Obama lays out his agenda, including a $1000 tax break for the middle class, lobbying reform and an end to the war in Iraq.

What’s most interesting about the ad is that Obama voices the kind of bright outlook that McCain did when he vouched for the fundamental soundness of the economy. “Doing these things won’t be easy,” Obama said. “But we’re Americans. We’ve met tough challenges before. And we can again.”

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Barack Obama today is launching a two minute ad in which he talks about his plans for the economy. The ad will run “nationally and in battleground states,” according to the campaign. Watch it and see below for the full transcript:

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The McCain campaign has released a new ad, "Enough Is Enough," that suggests John McCain will provide "experience and leadership" on the economy "in a time of crisis."

The campaign says the spot will air nationally. It comes on the heels of the Obama campaign's criticism of McCain for suggesting "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" on the day that two Wall Street companies effectively collapsed.

"The economy is in crisis," McCain says as the spot opens. "Enough is enough. I'll meet this financial crisis head on."

"Reform Wall Street," he continues. "New rules for fairness and honesty. I won't tolerate a system that puts you and your family at risk. Your savings, your jobs – I'll keep them safe."

Adds an announcer: "Experience and leadership in a time of crisis."

“Senator, what economy are you talking about?” It was the rhetorical question of the day thrown at John McCain Monday by Barack Obama after the Arizona senator said he believed that the “fundamental” underpinnings of the U.S. economy remain sound.

Coming on a day the saw the Dow Jones close down over 500 points, a complete collapse of a major financial institution and fears of more eminent crisis, it was a pretty good line to throw at McCain. The Republican candidate is laboring under the yoke of an unpopular administration at a time when voter’s feelings about the overall economic situation of the country is anything but strong or sound.

As Democratic consultant Joe Trippi told CBSNews.com yesterday, both candidates are in a bit of a bind on the current crisis. "You can make an alarmist statement and trigger an even bigger fall than is occurring," Trippi said of the potential candidate responses. “Or you can go the way McCain did, which is try to help calm the markets, and be accused of not understanding how perilous the times are."

That tricky balance is much more pronounced for McCain, whose Republican Party has controlled the federal government for the bulk of the past eight years and receives much of the blame for just about anything that voters are unhappy with. Although he is calling for greater oversight over financial markets in response to the crisis, McCain and his party have long favored less regulation, as the New York Times points out today.

So it’s no wonder that the Obama campaign is hammering away at McCain’s characterization of the economy as fundamentally sound. They even have a new ad out today asking the question, “how can John McCain fix our economy … if he doesn’t understand it’s broken?”

A “broken” economy may make a good soundbite but is it accurate? More importantly, does if reflect how voters feel about their own economic condition? While voters universally say that the economy is bad, there’s little evidence to suggest that they think it is “broken” altogether.

Obama’s campaign is striking while the iron is hot on this issue. Each day spent on discussing the economy, the better it is a very good day for Obama. But in “talking down” the economy, does his campaign risk running up against some pushback among voters who don’t agree that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are broken? Or is it a winning political hand all the way around?

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As the struggles of the financial markets top the news agenda today, the McCain campaign has released a new ad, "Crisis," that takes a dim view of the economy. The spot suggests only Republican presidential nominee McCain and running mate Sarah Palin can "fix" what has gone wrong on Wall Street. The campaign says the ad will air on national television.

"Our economy in crisis," says an announcer as the spot opens. "Only proven reformers John McCain and Sarah Palin can fix it. Tougher rules on Wall Street to protect your life savings. No special interest giveaways. Lower taxes to create new jobs. Offshore drilling to reduce gas prices. McCain - Palin. Leadership, experience, for the change we need."



The Obama campaign released a statement in response to the spot which reads in part, “John McCain has been in Washington for twenty-six years and hasn’t lifted a finger to reform the regulations that could’ve prevented this crisis. In fact, his campaign is run by some of the very same lobbyists who fought against these regulations and worked to put special interest giveaways in our federal budget."

On the stump today, McCain said that while the fundamentals of the economy are strong, these are "very, very difficult times."