All Blog Posts from Horserace

CBS News this morning called the state of North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes for Barack Obama, bringing his electoral vote total to 364. John McCain's total stands at 163. The last time a Democrat won North Carolina was more than 30 years ago, when Jimmy Carter took the state in 1976.

The reason for the delay in calling the race was that the state was still counting the last of its ballots; at this point, however, all indications are that there are too few remaining ballots to overcome Obama's lead, according to the elections unit.

That leaves Missouri as the only state that has not been called. The state, where the vote is extremely close, is still tallying absentee and provisional ballots.

Incumbents all came out on top in congressional primaries held in Indiana and North Carolina yesterday, though there were a few close races and some interesting match-ups were set up for the fall.

The closest primary race was in the state's central 5th district where Republican Rep. Dan Burton defeated emergency room physician John McGoff, 52 percent to 45 percent. Burton, the state's longest-serving congressman, had come under fire during the campaign for missing House votes during a trip to a charity golf tournament. He will be heavily favored in the Republican leaning district in the fall.

Also in Indiana, Democratic Rep. Andre Carson defeated seven primary challengers with 46 percent of the vote in Indianapolis' 7th district. Carson won the seat in a special election held in March to replace his grandmother, former Rep. Rep. Julia Carson, who died in December. He will now have a rematch of that special election with Republican state Rep. Jon Elrod.

The most competitive House race this fall in Indiana may come in the 9th district in the southeastern part of the state. Democratic Rep. Baron Hill will face former Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel for a fourth consecutive time. Hill defeated Sodrel in 2002 and 2006, with Sodrel winning by 1,500 votes in 2004.

In North Carolina, the most closely watched House primary involved Republican Rep. Walter Jones in the third district, home to the Marine Corps' Camp Lejeune and other bases. Jones came to prominence for touting "Freedom Fries" in the run-up to the Iraq War, but has since has come to oppose the war and was among the few Republican House members to vote for timetables to withdraw U.S. troops. Jones defeated Joe McLaughlin, a former Army officer, by a comfortable 20-point margin, and he is heavily favored in the general election.

The closest House race in North Carolina this November could come in the 11th district in the Western part of the state, where freshmen Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler, the former NFL quarterback, won in 2006 with 54 percent of the vote. Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower won the Republican primary over two others with 48 percent of the vote.

North Carolina Democrats also held a primary for the chance to take on Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole in the fall. Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan beat Chapel Hill entrepreneur Jim Neal by a big margin. Dole is favored, but Democrats in the state believe they have a chance.

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Hillary Clinton may have gotten what she needed to keep her uphill quest for the Democratic nomination alive - but by the barest of margins. She is now running out of both the time, and chances she needs to stay alive.

A razor-thin victory in Indiana and a blowout loss in North Carolina is unlikely to immediately drive Clinton out of a race she has fought so long to win. But with just six contests remaining and more party superdelegates available now than winnable delegates, her path to the nomination has nearly vanished.

Barack Obama emerged from the contest with a net gain in delegates, and there are now more superdelegates up for grabs (267 according to CBS News estimates) than pledged delegates in the remaining contests (217). He will also log a big gain in the overall popular vote thanks to his big North Carolina showing. Clinton faces favorable terrain in upcoming states like West Virginia and Kentucky but can’t come close to winning enough delegates or votes to narrow those margins substantially.

Despite losing in Indiana, Obama put some questions to rest tonight. Most importantly, he demonstrated that he could weather the kind of firestorm created by his controversial former pastor Jeremiah Wright after two weeks of the more intense scrutiny he has faced thus far in the campaign. Obama also showed he could come back from a big loss in Pennsylvania in the middle of it all and right the ship.

The Clinton campaign was quick to point out that Obama had called Indiana a “tiebreaker” contest and claimed a victory there gives them an edge in that argument. But the failure to achieve anything more than a virtual “tie” in Indiana may not inspire the party leaders she now needs in overwhelming numbers to win.

In the wake of her Pennsylvania win, Clinton’s campaign claimed they had raised an impressive $10 million in just the next 24 hours. That - and probably more - has almost certainly been spent since then and a bare tonight’s near double-defeat is unlikely to fill the coffers again.

Democrats will be reading the results in the coming hours and days and, while there remain some troubling signs about Obama’s ability to win over white, blue-collar voters, it’s the hardening split between supporters of both candidates that may be most alarming. A third of Clinton voters in Indiana, and slightly more of them in North Carolina, told exit pollsters that they will support John McCain in general election over Obama should he win the nomination. Fewer of Obama voters said they would support McCain over Clinton but majorities of supporters for both candidates in both states said would be dissatisfied if the other won the nomination.

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Polls in Indiana close at 7:00pm ET and at 7:30 in North Carolina, check back with CBSNews.com for full coverage. In the meantime, here is a sneak peak at the early CBS News exit polls:

Most voters in both states made up their minds about who to support before the last week. Seventy six percent of voters in Indiana said they made up their minds before the past week as well as 81 percent of North Carolina voters.

The economy remained the dominant issue for voters in both states, as it has in contests throughout the primary process. Sixty five percent of the voters in Indiana and 60 percent in North Carolina said the economy was the issue they are most concerned with. And over 80 percent of the voters in both states said they have been affected by the slowing economy.

In Indiana, 50 percent of the voters said Hillary Clinton would be more likely to improve the economy as president. In North Carolina, 52 percent said Barack Obama would be.

And about half of voters in each state said the ability to bring change is the quality they are most looking for in a candidate, followed by just less than a quarter who cited experience.

More voters in both states said they believed Clinton attacked her opponent unfairly. Sixty three percent in Indiana and 67 percent in North Carolina said so while 43 percent and 40 percent respectively said they felt Obama had attacked Clinton unfairly.

Supporters of both said they would be unsatisfied with the other candidate as the nominee, but more of Clinton backers in both states said so than Obama supporters. Among Clinton voters in both states, 64 percent said they would be dissatisfied with Obama as the nominee. Fifty eight percent of Obama supporters in Indiana said they would not be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee, compared to 55 percent of his voters in North Carolina.

In both states, 48 percent of all voters said that the situation involving Obama’s former pastor Jeremiah Wright was something that was important in their vote.

Rep. Heath Shuler, a Democratic superdelegate, said last night that he will endorse whichever Democratic candidate wins the most votes in his western North Carolina district today.

The Associated Press reported the news, noting that Shuler's rural, conservative district "is comprised primarily of white, working-class voters -- a demographic that has long favored Hillary Rodham Clinton."

More than 488,000 votes have been cast already in North Carolina, where polls close at 7:30 tonight. As we noted in Starting Gate, North Carolinians John and Elizabeth Edwards have declined to endorse a candidate. North Carolina's governor, Mike Easley, is one of the two superdelegates backing Clinton, while six of the state's superdelegates have pledged support to Barack Obama.

After today’s results in Indiana and North Carolina have been combed through and pronouncements made about the state of the Democratic presidential contest, one fact will be very clear – this race is almost finished but may be nowhere near being over.

The overall picture may be no more obvious after tonight (although it possibly could be much clearer) but the primary clock is quickly winding down. There are 187 delegates up for grabs today. In the six contests remaining, there are just 217 pledged delegates left.

According to CBS News estimates, Barack Obama leads among delegates overall with 1,745 compared to 1,603 for Hillary Clinton. In pledged delegates (those won in state contests), Obama leads 1,488 to 1,332. Among those superdelegates, Clinton leads 271 to 257 with 267 left up for grabs.

Assuming that the two candidates split the remaining pledged delegates (and because of the proportional allocation system that is roughly what almost certainly will happen), Obama will finish the primary season about 80 delegates or so short of the nomination, meaning that the superdelegates will ultimately decide the race.

On that front, there is some good news for Obama. Despite losing Pennsylvania by 10 points and going through the Rev. Wright controversy, Obama has picked up 22 superdelegates since Pennsylvania according to CBS News. Clinton has gotten the support of 13 since her victory there. Barring a loss in both states, Obama can reasonably expect to have the upper hand going forward.

Even assuming that Obama will be well within striking distance of the magic number of 2,025, he won’t get there without a substantial number of those superdelegates who can taketh away as quickly as they gaveth. And let’s not even get started on the popular vote calculations and the Michigan/Florida messes.

The primaries are almost over, and today is the last big day in terms of what’s at stake. But the “winner” might not be decided until the convention in Denver. If you were either of these candidates would you even entertain the possibility of dropping our before then?

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This weekend’s caucuses in Guam pretty much summed up the Democratic race: Out of about 4,500 votes, Barack Obama edged Hillary Clinton by a grand total of seven votes. That’s about where the race is heading into the next round of all-important primaries -- Obama ahead just enough to be comfortably assured of finishing the race that way but not far enough to coast completely.

In fact, tomorrow’s contests in North Carolina and Indiana have the potential to end up as pivotal. A win in both would nearly allow Obama to claim victory and might well be enough to get those uncommitted superdelegates off of the fence. A split – with Clinton winning Indiana and Obama taking North Carolina, would keep the race going on to West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon and beyond.

But it’s the other scenario that he crept into the political discussion that could be the real game changer should it occur. What if Clinton manages to pull off a sweep? Unlikely as that seems, it’s not impossible to consider. Indiana, where Clinton has held a small lead in the past weeks, looks to be her best short for a win. North Carolina is much tougher. Among Democrats in the Tar Heel State, blacks make up about 37 percent of the party. Obama has consistently won around 90 percent or more of that vote throughout the primaries which means Clinton would have to carry a huge percentage of the rest of the Democrats and non-affiliated voters allowed to participate in the primary.

Obama has held a solid lead in most polls there but Clinton appears to have closed the gap – and caused enough concern within his campaign to spend some valuable time in North Carolina in recent days. Most worrisome to him is that in most recent polls, he is under 50 percent – and Clinton generally does better among those late-deciders.

If she were to pull that upset, it could be devastating to Obama. A Clinton sweep would raise serious concerns about Obama’s ability to win in the general election and inevitably lead to some discussion about the on-the-ground impact of the Rev. Wright controversy. (A news CBS News/New York Times poll has encouraging news on that front for his campaign). And with the race heading into states like West Virginia and Kentucky, perceived Clinton-friendly states, the one-time front-runner would face the possibility of winning the nomination despite having lost a series of contests to end the race.

Such a course of events still might not be enough for Clinton to win the nomination but it wouldn’t exactly help Obama to head into the general election with a lot of momentum.

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A week’s worth of drama and polling leads into a weekend of expectations-setting for the political pros. That might have more impact on how the results in Indiana and North Carolina primaries are judged than anything else. And strangely at this juncture, it’s Barack Obama who may have the biggest opportunity.

Suddenly, the hopes are high in the Hillary Clinton camp. Polls throughout the week, both nationally and at the state level, give her reason for hope – in Indiana, among superdelegates and even in North Carolina, where Obama should be a prohibitive favorite. What better time for a comeback?

Despite a week of Rev. Wright talk and polls indicating that Clinton may be the stronger candidate for the general election (at the moment), Obama remains in a very strong position to win the nomination and a sweep of Tuesday’s primaries could seal it. Can it happen? You bet.

While Clinton has shown a slight lead in Indiana, the state appears to be ultra competitive. It’s a neighboring state to Obama’s Illinois and he’s demonstrated strength in such situations throughout the campaign. A week ago, a win in Indiana for Obama would have gone a long way towards putting to rest concerns about his ability to win over blue-collar voters. Now a win there would say so much more – it would soothe Democratic worries about Wright and electability issues.

Should Clinton manage a sweep, it would be a heavy blow to the Obama campaign but not a fatal one. He would still almost certainly finish the primary season ahead in elected delegates. An Obama sweep, even by the slimmest of margins, would pretty much wrap the race up. In keeping with this primary contest, the most likely outcome is a split, with Obama carrying North Carolina and Clinton winning Indiana. But since when has this race played to type?

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Hillary Clinton's campaign has released a pair of new ads, one of which takes direct aim at her Democratic rival, Barack Obama.

In that ad, called "Trouble," an announcer says, "The economy’s in trouble. When the housing crisis broke, Hillary Clinton called for action. A freeze on foreclosures. Barack Obama said no."

He continues: "Now, gas prices are skyrocketing and she’s ready to act again. Hillary’s plan: Use the windfall profits of the oil companies to pay to suspend the gas tax this summer. Barack Obama says no – again. People are hurting. It’s time for a president who’s ready to take action now."

(Here's a good Washington Post fact check on the gas tax debate.)

The spot prompted a rebuttal from the Obama campaign, which called it the "First TV Attack Ad of the Indiana Primary."

The campaign writes: "Picking up where they left off in Pennsylvania, the Clinton campaign today launched 'Trouble,' a misleading attack ad that’s emblematic of why Washington has failed to make progress on the tough issues that face Indiana families: It puts political point-scoring ahead of progress."

You can read the entire point-by-point rebuttal here, and watch the ad below:



The other new spot from the Clinton campaign, which is airing in North Carolina, features Maya Angelou discussing why she is supporting Clinton.

"Hillary Clinton is a prayer of every American who really longs for fair play," Angelou says in the 60-second spot, "Maya."

"She intends to help our country become what it can become," Angelou adds. "She dares to say human beings are more alike than we are unalike. I watched her become interested in public health and in education for all the children. And I watched her stand."

Watch it:

Five straight days of Rev. Wright headlines have undoubtedly taken a toll on Barack Obama’s campaign. After another disappointing loss in another large state, he was already laboring under the pressure of proving that he has what it takes to deliver that knockout punch in North Carolina and, more importantly, Indiana on May 6th.

At the moment, it seems as though he’s locked in a battle with at least four different opponents – Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Jeremiah Wright and the media. What better time for a stunning blow?

For the first time in a long time the expectations game may be working in Obama’s favor. Although expected to win comfortably in North Carolina next Tuesday, Indiana is where most of the attention will likely be focused. Polls show the race there to be a near dead-heat, with Clinton claiming a lead most recently. But the state is hardly a slam-dunk for either candidate. And Obama has perhaps as many things going for him in the state that borders his own as he has going against him.

Next Tuesday is yet another in a series of critical days for both Democrats but for once, it’s Obama who’s operating with the burden of expectations – can he finish this race off? After the loss in Pennsylvania, all the discussion about his failure to attract those blue-collar voters and, now, the re-emergence of Wright as an issue, he looks to be the underdog, at least in Indiana.

But a win in the Hoosier state would be the ultimate remedy for what is ailing his campaign. It would all but knock Clinton out of the race, put questions about his ability to attract support in the heartland to rest and demonstrate to the party’s superdelegates that the Rev. Wright controversy doesn’t render him unelectable. A Hoosier State victory isn’t out of reach and in this race, almost seems like a fitting ending. Stay tuned.