All Blog Posts from Horserace

This analysis was written by Anthony Salvanto, CBS News’ manager of surveys

Iowa and New Hampshire did more than kick off this year’s presidential races. Their contests this winter drew thousands of first-time voters, and spurred thousands more to switch party registration, in numbers that heavily favored the Democrats.

In a presidential election that may be close, they could play pivotal roles for the second time this year. Could new voters put these states - each of which was a toss-up in ’04 - squarely into the blue column now?

Here’s a look at how the changes have shaken up their electorates – and could make a difference this November. The challenge for Obama and the Democrats is whether they can capitalize on having won the “interest primary” by drawing and registering more of their voters last winter.

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Is Mike Gravel throwing in the towel?

The Associated Press reports on Gravel's frustrating day yesterday: Not only did the Democratic presidential hopeful and former Alaska senator earn just a fraction of 1 percent in the polls, he "spent Tuesday morning undergoing tests at a hospital for what turned out to be a respiratory infection."

Gravel says he is now going to take time off from campaigning, telling AP he needs to get healthy. But with the race in full-gear and those debate invitations not hitting his mailbox any longer, Gravel's moment has already passed.

At least we'll always have that rock.

There are a lot of red-faded journalists and sideline pundits waking up with crow on their upper-lips from the large amounts of the dish they were served up by Democratic voters in New Hampshire yesterday. Present company included.

When we get it wrong, we really get it wrong. Barack Obama was supposed to cruise to a big victory in the first-in-the-nation primary after his Iowa bounce and launch a nearly unstoppable movement into the political stratosphere. Hillary Clinton's campaign was supposed to be on life-support, awaiting a long-shot emergency transfusion of new brain-trust and message surgery.

Not exactly. While predictions of a McCain win held, that's little solace for the otherwise shaken prediction business. It's nine long days into this new year but maybe we should all resolve to try and not project so much before the voters have actually spoken. How and why did it happen the way it did in New Hampshire yesterday? Still a lot of those questions left to be answered but here's a good starter menu:

CBSNews.com political consultant Monika L. McDermott has taken a trip through the network exit polls. Among other insightful digging, she has this to say about the Democratic race: Clinton held her own among late deciders, beating back the Obama surge and winning courtesy of a significant Granite State gender gap and support from other traditional wings of the Democratic Party.

And CBSNews.com Editorial Director Dick Meyer dissects the Clinton win this way: "The voters of New Hampshire hadn't written Clinton off at all. With drama worthy of New Hampshire's flamboyant political history, Senator Clinton repeated the epic comeback that sent her husband on his way to the White House in 1992. It was a squeaker, but it was a win."

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It's not just the Democrats who can't stop talking about change. On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Mitt Romney has made it his closing argument.

In a two-minute spot to air tonight on New Hampshire and Massachusetts television, Romney says "those who’ve spent their careers in Washington can’t change Washington" – a not-so-veiled attempt to highlight John McCain's many years in the Senate.

They've failed at fixing schools, at fixing health care, and at securing borders, Romney says. "We need new energy, we need new ideas, and we need new leaders," he continues. "We need people who can turn around Washington. I’m the only candidate for President who’s done that in the real world."



Romney's campaign strategy has long been to build momentum by winning the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. But Romney lost to Mike Huckabee in Iowa, and a New Hampshire loss would be another significant blow to his campaign. Recent polls show the former Massachusetts governor trailing McCain by about 5 points in the Granite State.

The gang-up on Mitt Romney and the ongoing “change” debate among the Democrats were the dominant storylines coming out of last night’s debates, and they were also the leading topics of questions in the post-debate spin room, where the surrogates, aides and operatives of the candidates put themselves in front of hordes of journalists.

The Romney campaign set out to portray the wisecracks about his shifts on several issues – a floodgate that seemed to open after Mike Huckabee’s “Which one? – as a series of personal attacks that were proof the GOP field still views the former Massachusetts governor as a threat, even though most evidence indicates his campaign is still reeling from the loss in Iowa.

“Of course, that’s been a continual criticism of almost everyone on that stage, on the issue of illegal immigration in particular,” said Rep. Tom Tancredo, a former candidate who has since backed Romney. “Some of them were cheaper shots than others, I suppose, but the reality is, now, who’s got the best plan and who can go the distance. It is Gov. Romney in my point of view.

Tancredo also offered praise for Sen. Barack Obama, using words not unlike those that got Joe Biden in trouble last January.

“I tell ya, I actually hope he wins the Democratic nomination,” he said. “Because, No. 1, I think we can beat him. No. 2, if that happened, the Democrats nominated Barack Obama, what they’re doing is showing a really good role model, I think, for black youngsters, especially young men in this country. Here’s somebody who’s a good family man, well-spoken, a good individual who’s achieved this great goal of winning the nomination.”

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After a decisive Iowa loss, Hillary Clinton needs a win in New Hampshire to replicate her husband's 1992 "comeback kid" performance. It seems like the time to take an underdog approach, to downplay expectations and try to make even a slim win appear like a huge victory. After all, Bill Clinton didn't even win New Hampshire in 1992, but his better-than-expected finish gave him the headlines.

But Clinton's campaign has been busy touting its organization, arguing that Iowa is an anomaly and detailing the machinery in motion in New Hampshire. In a release today, the campaign detailed its "unprecedented grassroots efforts" in the Granite State, including: The existence of 17 offices in the state, 200 staff, "thousands" of volunteers knocking on "over 100,000 doors," 1.4 million phone calls made in the past months and over 100,000 "neighbor-to-neighbor" letters.

The campaign has also unveiled nine billboards along the state's major arteries and will run seven full-page ads in tomorrow's newspapers. Surrogates fanning out across the state will include Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villagairosa, Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, General Wesley Clark, Senators Evan Bayh and Barbara Mikulski, New Hampshire First Lady Susan Lynch, New Hampshire Speaker of the House Terie Norelli and "many more."

In a conference call with reporters on Friday, campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe and various state directors detailed similar organizational efforts in New Hampshire and other early states. A campaign machine worth touting, no doubt, but doing so could make a failure to win in New Hampshire that much more devastating.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg continues to insist he has "no plans" to run for president. But residents of Iowa and New Hampshire are likely to see him only days before they vote, thanks to a full-page ad Bloomberg and other big-city mayors are placing in the states' largest newspapers to highlight the issue of illegal guns.

Bloomberg's face is prominent in the ad, where he's joined by other members of Mayors Against Illegal Guns, which he co-chairs. The ad, now running in the Des Moines Register and the New Hampshire Union Leader, urges both candidates and voters to focus on the spread of illegal firearms, and challenges those seeking the White House to address the issue.

If Bloomberg were to run, he would do so as an independent, so it's not as though he could have any impact on the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. But his mere appearance in newspapers in both states -- in an ad he was presumably OK with -- is going to remind people of his presence just when the election is heating up and draw national media attention.

Reports indicate that Bloomberg won't decide on running until after the nominees of both parties are known, a circumstance that is likely only about a month away. In other words, now is a pretty good time for Bloomberg to be in the spotlight -- something the new ad could accomplish.

The Edwards campaign has a new ad running in New Hampshire that looks somewhat like a closing argument spot, with the candidate speaking to camera and a snowy landscape in the background. Script:

John Edwards: "What will our next president do with the enormous power that comes with the office? I will restore America’s moral authority in the world, confront people who exploit their power for personal advantage, stand up for people whose voices are ignored – just like I’ve done all my life – be honest about the challenges we face and the choices we have, keep the promises I make, work every day to restore the American Dream. Because I know that the power that comes with the presidency comes from you."

The recent run of ads featuring sweater-clad candidates wishing Iowans happy holidays may be enough to prove that the presidential campaigns think it’s possible to score political points at Christmastime.

But is that actually the case? Two leading pollsters in Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t totally sure – though they say that even if the candidates can do little to sway voters this time of year, that doesn’t mean the winter holidays cause public opinion to freeze like an ice pond.

“My guess is that caucus attendees are highly engaged politically and conversations will continue,” said Ann Selzer, whose firm conducts The Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register. “Are they going to candidate’s events? Probably not. Do they have less time for reading or Web surfing? Probably. But they are still talking to people.”

Selzer said the wide-open nature of this year’s race, in both parties, makes the presidential race an irresistible topic, even as Iowans rush to buy Christmas presents.

Dick Bennett, head of the New Hampshire-based American Research Group says that while politics still might be off-limits for Christmas dinner conversation, Granite State voters aren’t taking any sort of electoral vacation with their primary only a couple weeks away.

“The 24th and the 25th, they want that time [to themselves],” he said. “But I think beginning on the 26th and through New Year's, suddenly this is an important decision and it gets put back on the front burner, like anything else.”

Bennett said the holiday rush hasn’t made people any less willing to talk to pollsters, indicating an excitement about the election – and an electorate that still hasn’t made up its mind. Once voters have settled firmly on a candidate, he said, their desire to stay on the phone for a poll drops off.

But it’s still difficult to gauge the effects of the holidays on public opinion because there’s no previous example for comparison. In 2004, the Iowa caucuses were in mid-January, meaning the mad dash of the final two weeks came after New Year’s Day.

“We just have nothing to go on,” Selzer said. “Anything is speculation based on nothing. I try to base my speculation on data or experience.”

John McCain's campaign has unleashed a direct-mail piece criticizing Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, reports the Nashua Telegraph. The mailing criticizes Romney on illegal immigration, pointing to a news report stating that Romney once supported allowing illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship and notes that a firm re-hired by Romney to work around his home employed illegal workers even after the issue came up previously.

"Like so many times before, Mitt Romney advocated totally inconsistent, policy positions,'' the mailing states. That's why voters don't trust Mitt Romney. No wonder why Mitt Romney is trying to cover up his own mixed-up record by smearing straight-talking John McCain," the mailing says. It also claims Romney has "flip-flopped" on a number of issues, including immigration, taxes and campaign finance reform. Romney New Hampshire director Jim Merrill responded, "Senator McCain's weak approach to illegal immigration should be the last issue he tries to use when attacking and distorting the record of Governor Romney."