All Blog Posts from Horserace

The Obama campaign has released a new TV spot that will air in the two biggest Nevada markets: Las Vegas and Reno. The ad hits John McCain over the Republican's position on storing nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain.

Yucca Mountain has been a controversial issue in Nevada for years, and it took on added urgency in June when the Bush administration filed a formal application for a construction license to build a nuclear waste dump.

The Obama ad highlights McCain's support of storing nuclear waste in at Yucca Mountain and accuses the Republican of not being "worried about nuclear waste in our state, only in Arizona."

It then shows a 2007 TV interview in which McCain was asked if he'd be comfortable with nuclear waste coming through Arizona.

"No, I would not," McCain says.

Watch the ad below:

The bad blood between the Clinton and Obama campaigns first reached a fevered pitch in the lead-up to Nevada's caucuses, and it appears the state will continue to serve as a battleground – not over votes, but over tactics.

The Obama campaign has asked the Nevada Democratic Party to investigate claims the Clinton campaign engaged in voter suppression on caucus day, including door closings, obstruction of voters, and improper handling of voter preference cards, according to the Associated Press. Obama's team says they aren't seeking a change in the outcome – Clinton won, 51 percent to Obama's 45 percent – so there may be other motives at play.

Both campaigns accused the other of dirty tricks in the days immediately before and after the caucuses. Clinton's side claims groups of Obama supporters tried to intimidate Clinton backers. And Obama's campaign has accused the Clinton campaign of distributing inaccurate instructions that resulted in registration at some caucus sites being cut off a half hour early.

With the race now firmly focused on South Carolina, why speak up about a past contest? Claims of voter suppression may strike a chord among African Americans, who make up a large part of the South Carolina electorate and endured widespread harassment and intimidation during the days of Jim Crow – some of which still continues today. And, on a larger scale, it could help back up the "they'll do anything to win" narrative the Obama campaign is trying to attach to Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Ron Paul's fervent supporters have something to crow about: With nearly all precincts reporting, the Texas representative is sitting in second place in the Nevada caucuses.

Now, a few caveats. First off, it's a pretty distant second. Paul only got 14 percent of the vote, far behind Mitt Romney's 51 percent. Secondly, Paul barely edged out John McCain, who didn't campaign in Nevada, whereas Paul ran ads in the state. And third, Paul is not looking like a factor in South Carolina, where voters went to the polls today.

Still, second place is second place, and the Paul campaign is celebrating.

“Ron Paul has once again topped multiple media-anointed ‘frontrunners’ with his poll-defying second place showing in Nevada,” Paul campaign chairman Kent Snyder said in a statement. “We’re in this race to win, and we’re going to battle for every delegate in this wide-open race for the Republican nomination.”

Ben Smith at our partner Politico reports that Bill Clinton has claimed to have personally witnessed voter suppression in Nevada.

The alleged suppressors: Representatives of the 60,000-strong Culinary Workers Union, which has endorsed Barack Obama.

"Today when my daughter and I were wandering through the hotel, and all these culinary workers were mobbing us telling us they didn’t care what the union told them to do, they were gonna caucus for Hillary," Clinton reportedly said.

Clinton continued: "There was a representative of the organization following along behind us going up to everybody who said that, saying 'if you’re not gonna vote for our guy we're gonna give you a schedule tomorrow so you can’t be there.' So, is this the new politics? I haven’t seen anything like that in America in 35 years."

Culinary Workers political director Pilar Weiss called Clinton's suggestion "ludicrous" and "technically impossible." Smith notes that "Vegas papers haven't found any evidence of the kind of straightforward voter suppression Clinton reports."

"We have found it shocking that President Clinton has gotten so engaged in promoting these accusations," Weiss told Politico.

In a campaign where the unexpected is the only certain bet, Nevada's caucuses tomorrow are a perfect illustration of this crazy political year. In what other year would an important nominating contest where the turnout estimates range from 20,000 to 100,000 seem so at home?

All bets are off in Nevada tomorrow as state Democrats gather in unfamiliar circumstances to add their voice to the fierce battle between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Like so much else in this campaign, the advantages for one candidate seem clear and the outcome appears a safe bet.

Even as he was suffering a stunning setback in New Hampshire, Obama was getting the endorsement of Nevada's influential Culinary union, widely seen as the state's premier organizational tool in the caucuses. The state's teachers union has not endorsed but is considered to be in the Clinton camp. They filed a lawsuit after Obama napped the Culinary support to try and stop party rules which allow voters to caucus in casinos – where plenty of those union members work and can participate even while on the clock.

That suit was thrown out yesterday, clearing the way for what appears on the face of it to be an Obama win tomorrow. But don't bet the ranch. Nobody, it seems, has a handle on just what the cards will look like when they're finally dealt.

Union members are furious at the attempt. In a radio ad yesterday, the Culinary union began running a Spanish-language ad calling Clinton "shameless" for allowing supporters to file the lawsuit. "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people," the ad says. "Hillary Clinton supporters went to court to prevent working people to vote this Saturday - that is an embarrassment. Hillary Clinton supporters want to prevent people from voting in their workplace on Saturday. This is unforgivable!”

But both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have invested heavily in organization in the state. Obama may have the most powerful union but Clinton and Edwards have influential labor support of their own. And polls in the state indicate any one of the three could emerge with a win.

In 2004, when the state was relegated to a basically meaningless contest, just 9,000 Democrats turned out for the nominating caucuses. As many as ten times that number may participate tomorrow in over 500 locations to take part in a process which is difficult for even Iowans to navigate – and they have decades of experience doing it. They'll be showing up at more than 5,000 sites across the state. High stakes with low odds of predicting a winner. Sounds kind of like the perfect description of campaign '08.

Read full post…

Fred Thompson's campaign, left for dead after a lackluster effort in last fall's run-up to Iowa and New Hampshire, is showing some signs of life in South Carolina. On the days of the New Hampshire primary, Thompson headed south and began digging in for what could be his last stand.

Is it paying off? Yes and no. According to the latest Palmetto Poll, conducted by the University of Clemson, Thompson remains in a distant fourth, garnering just 10 percent. John McCain leads the GOP race with 29 percent, Mike Huckabee gets 22 percent and Mitt Romney is third with 13 percent. In the August Palmetto Poll, Thompson led the field with 19 percent.

But while Thompson's poll numbers might not be soaring, his rhetoric has gotten sharper over these past ten days. Just yesterday, the former Tennessee senator took aim at each one of those currently ahead of him. Thompson accused Romney of pandering and said his approach to the economy is less-than conservative. "Romney was very effective in Michigan doing what he does best and that is tailoring his message to a particular audience," said Thompson. "He basically - as I could pick up with it - promised that the federal government was going to come in and bail out Michigan when he got elected president. Very conservative notion, don't you think?"

While taking it easier on his longtime friend McCain, Thompson still managed to get in a dig about his support for last year's failed immigration reform bill. "I knew that he was on the wrong track," he said of McCain. "And the American people said so and they rejected that bill." Thompson then took aim at Huckabee. "At least McCain's record's been out there for about 20 years. We've got some Johnny-come-latelies now that don't want to talk about their record and they're hoping there's not enough time for anybody to even to examine it, because where they've been in the past."

This is the feisty Thompson that has been on display at the most recent debates and it's made him a much different candidate than the laconic manner in which he carried himself throughout the fall and early winter. Despite the rejuvenation, it may be too little, too late even in an incredibly jumbled and unpredictable field.

But Thompson could prove to be a spoiler in the race. After finishing second in Michigan, McCain needs a win in South Carolina to reclaim the small burst of New Hampshire momentum which vaulted him to the top of national polls. Huckabee needs a victory in South Carolina to prove that his Iowa win was no fluke and that his claims of Southern appeal are solid. (Romney's win Tuesday takes some of the pressure off of him in a state that would be difficult for him under most circumstances). Between McCain and Huckabee, who does Thompson pull support from most?

Read full post…

Barack Obama has been piling up the endorsements lately: John Kerry, Nevada unions, and now, according to the Associated Press, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano and two-time presidential candidate and former Colorado Democratic Senator Gary Hart.*

The formal announcement concerning Napolitano is expected to come this afternoon. Napolitano is in her second-term and is well known in Arizona, and could help Obama in nearby Nevada, where caucuses will be held Jan. 19. The AP reports the pair will appear together in Las Vegas this evening.

Hart, who ran for president in 1984 and 1988, called Obama "the embodiment of what is best about our nation." He said in a release that ``Senator Obama's personal history uniquely qualifies him to restore America's standing in the world.''

Democratic Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, meanwhile, is now weighing an endorsement – one that could factor heavily with both African-Americans and South Carolinians. The New York Times reports that Clyburn, the highest-ranking African-American in Congress, had planned to remain neutral in the race but is now considering changing his mind over Hillary Clinton's comments on civil rights.

On Monday, Clinton said “Dr. King’s dream began to be realized when President Lyndon Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. ... It took a president to get it done.” She was trying to make a case for what she sees as the importance of her experience and competence compared to rival Barack Obama's uplifting rhetoric. Her advisors later said the comments did not capture her meaning.

“We have to be very, very careful about how we speak about that era in American politics,” Clyburn, a longtime civil rights activist, told the Times. “It is one thing to run a campaign and be respectful of everyone’s motives and actions, and it is something else to denigrate those. That bothered me a great deal.”

South Carolina Democrats go to the polls on Jan. 26th, and African-American voters are expected to be a major factor. “His influence would be extraordinary if he should endorse somebody,” South Carolina Democratic activist Don Fowler told the Times.

*This post has been updated with news of Hart's endorsement.

As expected, Barack Obama has secured endorsements from the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union in Nevada and the Nevada chapter of the Service Employees International Union, the Associated Press reports.

With Obama having won the Iowa caucuses and Hillary Clinton taking the New Hampshire primary, Nevada's caucuses take on an added importance. The Nevada SEIU claims to have 17,500 members, and the support of both unions could be a boost to Obama in the Jan. 19th caucuses.

"The culinary union, representing hotel, restaurant and laundry workers in Nevada's casino industry, is the largest and best organized labor group in the state," AP writes. "It has the ability to steer thousands of voters to the state's Jan. 19 caucus and turn an already competitive three-way scramble for supporters into an all-out ground-level frenzy."

In a statement, SEIU Executive Director Jane McAlevey said this:

"Nevada is a caucus state, and as Obama showed in Iowa, organization of every precinct is key to winning. SEIU Nevada members from Reno to Elko to Las Vegas are ready to make a difference in this state for our candidate."

The endorsement means that SEIU unions in other states are permitted to work with their Nevada counterpart on Obama's behalf in the state.

*This post has been updated with news of the Culinary Workers Union endorsement.