All Blog Posts from Horserace

This analysis was written by Anthony Salvanto, CBS News’ manager of surveys

Iowa and New Hampshire did more than kick off this year’s presidential races. Their contests this winter drew thousands of first-time voters, and spurred thousands more to switch party registration, in numbers that heavily favored the Democrats.

In a presidential election that may be close, they could play pivotal roles for the second time this year. Could new voters put these states - each of which was a toss-up in ’04 - squarely into the blue column now?

Here’s a look at how the changes have shaken up their electorates – and could make a difference this November. The challenge for Obama and the Democrats is whether they can capitalize on having won the “interest primary” by drawing and registering more of their voters last winter.

Read full post…

John McCain has a new ad running in Iowa, "Leads," which opens with a shot of the two Democratic presidential rivals side by side.

"While Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama argue and fight with each other, John McCain leads," an announcer says as the spot opens.

The ad then continues as a positive McCain spot, spotlighting, among other things, his plan for a gas tax holiday. "John McCain: Leadership, not politics," the announcer says as the spot closes. The McCain campaign didn't officially release the spot, which we've embedded via Politico:



Hillary Clinton's campaign also released three new spots today. You can see the two Kentucky spots, "Partner" and "Right Track," here and here. The ad in Oregon, "What's Right," is below. It opens with a shot of pundits discussing the – ahem – horserace nature of political coverage.

"In Washington, they talk about who's up and who's down," an announcer says as the spot opens with shots of TV pundits. "In Oregon, we care about what's right and what's wrong."

Starting Gate: Iowa Hangovers, New Hampshire Buzz

Congratulations, you just won the Iowa caucuses. Your prize: Five more grueling days of campaigning in New Hampshire! Some thoughts heading into the Granite State:

If your campaign has suffered a decisive loss and a near must-win contest looming in a matter of days, how should you respond? The lesson plan from campaign 101 class freshman year says the answer is clear – go negative. Barack Obama, John McCain and, to a lesser extent Mike Huckabee, should expect their opponents to increasingly seek to talk about the "real differences" between them.

Even before voters began streaming into Iowa caucus sites, Mitt Romney was on the air with a new ad attacking McCain on the issue of tax cuts. But that approach didn’t serve Romney well in Iowa. Despite millions spent criticizing Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor soared to a big victory. New Hampshire, the legend goes, is not "Iowa nice" and likes its politics a little rougher. Candidates like Romney and Clinton may have little choice. If they have some bullets left in the chamber, we may see them fired over the weekend.

Odd as it seems, there may be a silver lining in Clinton's loss in Iowa. The fact that she came in a very close third leave John Edwards hanging tight in the race. In interviews and comments after the results, Edwards signaled that he feels the time has come to perhaps engage Obama in a more direct manner. Arguing that the results demonstrated the mood for "change," Edwards then went on to insist there are differences between his brand and Obama's. Should Edwards begin to express those differences in an aggressive manner, Clinton could gain from the fight. At the very least, it puts her in a position to not be the only one criticizing Obama.

Nobody may be suffering a bigger hangover from Iowa than Romney. His strategy was largely based on gaining unstoppable momentum in the early contests and rolling into Super-Duper Tuesday on February 5th. Having lost the first one, winning the second suddenly becomes much more difficult. And a loss in New Hampshire could prove disastrous for a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts. While Michigan's primary looms shortly after New Hampshire, that contest has been largely ignored by both the candidates and the media. A win there does not necessarily translate into momentum and McCain has also been active there, a strategy that could bury Romney should the Arizona senator win there.

Read full post…

DES MOINES -- I just ran into a precinct captain for John Edwards near the hotel in downtown Des Moines where Edwards gave his post-caucus address. She described the "drunken" scene at the hotel amongst Edwards workers who have spent the last few months working on behalf of the candidate here, and talked about her relief that the Iowa campaign was finally over.

The precinct captain also said she "feels bad" for Joe Biden and Bill Richardson, who came in at just 1 and 2 percent support here. (Biden has since dropped out.) They were both polling higher in Iowa, but because of the Democratic viability threshold in Iowa – candidates must have a certain level of support at a caucus, usually 15 percent, or their supporters must caucus for another candidate – they ended up with nearly negligible vote totals.

After it was announced that Richardson was not viable, the precinct captain said she "went over and got a few of the Richardson people" to caucus for Edwards. It was one more small example of the odd nature of the caucuses: After months of campaigning, millions of dollars spent, and untold television ads and phone calls, garnering voters can come down to something as simple as a gentle nudge on caucus night.

DES MOINES -- Rudy Giuliani campaigned far less in Iowa than his opponents in the run-up to the caucuses, and he wasn't expected to do well here. And he didn't: With most precincts reporting, Giuliani had less than ten percent of the GOP vote on Thursday night. It was a poor showing for the onetime national frontrunner, even considering the diminished expectations.

But there was some upside for Giuliani tonight: Mike Huckabee beat Mitt Romney. And that means that the Republican field continues to have no real frontrunner. It's good news for Giuliani, whose strategy depends on the field remaining fluid until the larger, delegate rich states vote.

"We congratulate Mike Huckabee on a hard-fought victory in Iowa," Giuliani Campaign Manager Michael DuHaime said in a statement. "This race is wide open and we will continue to run a national primary campaign designed to win the number of delegates necessary to become the Republican nominee."

Romney outspent Huckabee 20-1 here, and his loss severely diminishes his standing in the Republican field. He now goes to New Hampshire to battle John McCain, with whom the former Massachusetts governor is neck-in-neck in state polls. Despite his win here, Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, has fewer campaign funds than his rivals, and he may have less appeal nationally than he does in Iowa, which has a relatively high-percentage of religious GOP caucus-goers.

Ron Paul's campaign, meanwhile, didn't have the breakthrough here it had hoped. But with roughly 10 percent support, and a win over Giuliani, Paul's campaign is spinning his showing as a victory.

"I think it's a pretty big statement that we finished substantially in front of the national frontrunner," said Paul spokesman Jesse Benton. "This was a difficult environment and we did not have a lot of time, but we were able to build to double-digit support. It speaks to the grassroots support Dr. Paul enjoys."

One of the most-chased angles going into tonight’s caucuses is whether some of the lower-tier candidates might strike a deal with one of the front-runners to urge their non-viable supporters to caucus with a Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. In caucus locations where supporters of a candidate do not meet a threshold level (usually 15 percent), they must either organize with another candidate or remain in a group of uncommitteds. In 2004, Dennis Kucinich prodded his non-viable supporters toward John Edwards. This year, he’s publicly asked them to support Barack Obama.

In an attempt to put to rest some of that speculation, Joe Biden’s Iowa State Director Danny O’Brien released the following statement this afternoon: “There are no discussions underway and there will be no deal with any campaign. We believe Sen. Biden is strong enough on his own. Everyone knows that Sen. Biden is a popular second choice for the supporters of all the other campaigns. We remain confident that Sen. Biden will surprise folks this evening.” Yesterday, Chris Dodd voiced a similar sentiment, telling reporters, “I want every other campaign in this state to know: Don't make the call, I won't listen. Iowans ought to be offended by it. This is not an auction block; it's not a bidding war going on here. This is a very serious process that Iowans take very seriously.”

The Biden campaign statement followed this report in the Washington Post about a possible deal between the Delaware Senator and the Obama campaign.

URBANDALE, IA – John McCain was running late, but the Iowans who had assembled at the Arizona senator’s campaign headquarters here last night seemed happy with the warm up act: A media scrum including Tim Russert, George Stephanopoulos, Tucker Carlson, and Brian Williams, many of whom signed autographs in the cramped, hot room until McCain arrived.

“The last McCain event I came to there were 25 people,” a reporter said as he was being jostled to make room for more people, more media, more cameras. The too-small space suggested a last minute decision to come to Iowa from New Hampshire, one that might be explained by the fact that McCain is now sitting at a surprising (though distant) third in many Iowa polls.

When McCain did finally arrive, he was introduced by Senators Sam Brownback, John Thune and Lindsey Graham, the last of whom, this reporter noted for the first time, bears something of a resemblance to comedian Ricky Gervais. (The impression was only enhanced by Graham’s occasional eye rolling and joke telling: Standing in the sweltering room, he quipped that he might have changed his position on global warming.) Brownback, meanwhile, told the crowd that McCain would appoint “strict constructionist” judges to the bench.

McCain himself, clad in a brown leather jacket, was relatively upbeat while making what amounted to a standard stump speech. He took out a pen and promised to veto pork-barrel bills. He talked about “the transcendent challenge” of “radical Islamic extremism.” He said the surge in Iraq is succeeding and discussed how he stood by the strategy even as his campaign was being declared dead.

On McCain's way out, Nichole McDowell, who had come to the event with her infant son Wesley, asked the senator for a picture. McDowell’s husband Zac is an army sergeant whom, she said, McCain had met in Iraq. McCain, she said, had her vote.

“The man is amazing,” said McDowell, cradling her son in her arms. “He is the only man who has made an effort to see our troops and see this thing through.”

Happy Iowa Caucus Day everyone, who says the holidays are over just yet? Even as the day dawns on the most anticipated primary season ever, no one can say with any amount of certainty just who is going to come out of tonight’s caucuses as winners and losers. But regardless of what happens tonight, we’ve already learned plenty about campaign 2008.

We’ve learned that Hillary Clinton is not the inevitable Democratic nominee. Not only has her air of invincibility been punctured on the cold plains of Iowa, there are even more troubling signs for the former First Lady. That she would face a formidable challenge from a primary opponent – particularly from Barack Obama, a rising political superstar selling revolutionary change – is not in and of itself surprising. It could even turn out to be a net positive should she eventually win the nomination, providing evidence of her claim that she is battle-tested enough to take on Republicans in the general election.

But the very fact that nearly two-thirds or more of her party appear poised to vote for another candidate in the caucuses has to concern the one-time prohibitive front-runner. Iowa was never positioned to be Clinton’s best state, in part because of the process and in part because of her unfamiliarity with campaigning in the state. The unpopularity of the Iraq war among core activists combined with Obama’s message of change and John Edwards’ populist rhetoric has made it an even more uphill battle. It appears more and more that should Clinton end up with the nomination, it won’t be by coronation.

We’ve learned that change is a tough sell. Even against a candidate with heavy establishment backing, Obama has enjoyed spectacular advantages. But star power and largely glowing press coverage hasn’t been enough for Obama to break away from the pack in Iowa it appears. Should he win by a sizable margin, say 5 to 10 points, he may get the kind of momentum that will shoot him into New Hampshire, South Carolina and eventually the nomination. But a close 1-2-3 finish could well leave the race as undecided tomorrow as it is today.

Perhaps most instructive to future presidential hopefuls (presuming that Iowa retains its traditional place in the calendar), we’ve learned that doing things the old-fashioned way still pays off. All those campaigns that put in the time, energy and resources into building strong organizations in Iowa are likely to benefit, none more so perhaps than Edwards. He has retained a great deal of the support which thrust him into second place in the 2004 caucuses and expanded it. The work may well keep him in the race heading to New Hampshire. Mitt Romney, the only Republican with the money and strategy to build a traditional Iowa organization will benefit greatly should he win tonight, even by a slim margin.

Read full post…

Iowa is home to the Field of Dreams, the location of the 1989 movie of the same name. The film introduced the phrase “build it, and they will come” into the nation’s lexicon and, while sometimes over-used, it’s as good an explanation as any for what’s happening in the state as the 2008 caucuses loom.

Build it the candidates have, at least most of them. While some of the big names like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain made strategic decisions to basically skip the state, or at least de-emphasize its importance to their campaigns, most have put their all into it. Months filled with stump speeches, question and answer sessions and the ingestion of just about any kind of food you can think of that could possibly be served on a stick at the state’s fairs, they have “built it.”

But will “they” come? Campaign operatives and political observers of all stripes have spent the better part of the last two days chewing over the results of the Des Moines Register poll which, if accurate in its findings on turnout, signals a dramatic shift in voting behavior in the state. The most striking findings were among likely Democratic caucus goers. The poll showed that, among those who said they were likely to caucus, 60 percent would be attending one for the very first time and 40 percent were identified as Independents.

For a process in the past dominated by a relatively small core of party activists, having so many first-timers and independents would be nothing less than shocking. Campaign operatives quickly questioned the poll’s turnout predictions, with even the Barack Obama campaign sounding cautious about a poll which showed their candidate with a sizable lead. Pundits are quick to point out that other polls, taken around the same time, show the race much closer.

Much of the debate has been about the intricate details of polling – which lists are used, how independents are identified, etc. But those arguments may be missing the bigger picture, which is that it is not inconceivable that the presidential campaigns have “built” something unique in Iowa.

For Obama, first-time Independents have been a focus of his outreach efforts, for Clinton, it’s been first-time women. With the unprecedented micro-level of targeting individuals for the caucuses – and more time spent at it than ever before – it shouldn’t be a shock to anyone that this year’s voters would look quite a bit different than they have in the past.

“Iowa? I could have sworn this was Heaven,” said Ray Kinsella’s ghostly father in the movie. It may be a line that ends up in someone’s victory speech tomorrow night.

Read full post…

Long-shot Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich may have just done Barack Obama a favor, publicly telling his supporters that, if he doesn't reach the "viability threshold" at any caucus site, his supporter should regroup under Obama's banner.

CBS News political consultant Marc Ambinder passes along Kucinich's statement: "I hope Iowans will caucus for me as their first choice this Thursday, because of my singular positions on the war, on health care, and trade," Kucinich said. "This is an opportunity for people to stand up for themselves. But in those caucus locations where my support doesn't reach the necessary threshold, I strongly encourage all of my supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice. Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change."

Democratic Party rules require a candidate to meet a certain support level, usually 15 percent, from those attending a caucus meeting for it to count in determining delegates. Supporters for candidates who don't meet that threshold are required to switch to a more viable contender.

This isn't the first time Kucinich has arranged for his supporters to go elsewhere -- in 2004, the Kucinich and John Edwards campaigns arranged for their supporters to join each other's groups if one of them didn't hit the viability threshold.

In the latest Des Moines Register poll, Kucinich had the support of only 1 percent of likely caucus-goers, so the impact of this announcement is hard to determine, especially since smaller, rural caucus sites -- where one Kucinich supporter could compose a large percentage of the crowd -- have a disproportionate impact on the overall results.