All Blog Posts from Horserace

Former Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani has recorded a robocall knocking Barack Obama for opposing "mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers."

"It's true," Giuliani says. "I read Obama's words myself."

CBS News has confirmed that the call, which you can listen to here, is being deployed in battleground states. It is being paid for "by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008."

The script:

Hi, this is Rudy Giuliani, and I'm calling for John McCain and the Republican National Committee because you need to know that Barack Obama opposes mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers. It's true, I read Obama's words myself. And recently, Congressional liberals introduced a bill to eliminate mandatory prison sentences for violent criminals -- trying to give liberal judges the power to decide whether criminals are sent to jail or set free. With priorities like these, we just can't trust the inexperience and judgment of Barack Obama and his liberal allies.

The Republican Party has released advance excerpts from several of the big speakers tonight, including vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and three of McCain's former rivals for Republican nomination -- Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

You can watch the video and read the text from more speeches at the convention here.

Sarah Palin

On her experience as a public servant:

"I had the privilege of living most of my life in a small town. I was just your average hockey mom, and signed up for the PTA because I wanted to make my kids’ public education better. When I ran for city council, I didn’t need focus groups and voter profiles because I knew those voters, and knew their families, too. Before I became governor of the great state of Alaska, I was mayor of my hometown. And since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involves. I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities."

On why she is going to Washington, D.C.:

"I’m not a member of the permanent political establishment. And I’ve learned quickly, these past few days, that if you’re not a member in good standing of the Washington elite, then some in the media consider a candidate unqualified for that reason alone. But here’s a little news flash for all those reporters and commentators: I’m not going to Washington to seek their good opinion - I’m going to Washington to serve the people of this country."

On energy policies that the McCain-Palin administration will implement:

"Our opponents say, again and again, that drilling will not solve all of America’s energy problems - as if we all didn’t know that already. But the fact that drilling won’t solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all. Starting in January, in a McCain-Palin administration, we’re going to lay more pipelines...build more nuclear plants...create jobs with clean coal...and move forward on solar, wind, geothermal, and other alternative sources. We need American energy resources, brought to you by American ingenuity, and produced by American workers."

On John McCain:

"Here’s how I look at the choice Americans face in this election. In politics, there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers. And then there are those, like John McCain, who use their careers to promote change."

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Former New York City mayor and presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani will be the keynote speaker at the Republican National Convention, which begins Monday, September 1st. His Tuesday night address will follow primetime speeches from Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who are seen as two of the most likely candidates to become John McCain's running mate, were not granted primetime speaking slots. Romney is currently slated to speak on Wednesday, Sept 3rd, while Pawlenty is scheduled to join Charlie Crist, Sam Brownback and Mel Martinez to address the convention on Thursday, Sept. 4th, before McCain's convention-closing address.(The schedule could change.)

Whomever McCain selects as his running mate will give an address in primetime on Wednesday, along with Cindy McCain and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindel.

Former Democrat Joe Lieberman and Vice President Dick Cheney will speak on the convention's first day. They will be followed in primetime by California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and President Bush and First Lady Laura Bush.

Full schedule below.

Monday 9/1:
Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.
Vice President Dick Cheney

Monday primetime (10-11pm Eastern Time)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, R-Calif.
President Bush and First Lady Laura Bush

Tuesday 9/2:
Fmr. Gov. Tom Ridge, R-Pa.
Former CA Secretary of State Rosario Marin
Fmr. Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn.
Gov. Linda Lingle, R-Hawaii
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, R-Md.

Tuesday primetime (10-11pm Eastern Time)
Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark.
Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani, R-New York City ***KEYNOTER***

Wednesday 9/3:
Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn.
Meg Whitman, Ebay CEO
Carly Fiorina, former HP CEO
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass.

Wednesday primetime (10-11pm Eastern Time)
Cindy McCain
Vice Presidential nominee
Gov. Bobby Jindal, R-La., will speak after the VP nominee

Thursday 9/4:
Gov. Tim Pawlenty, R-Minn.
Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla.
Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas
Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla

Thursday primetime (10-11pm Eastern Time)
Sen. John McCain (video before his speech)

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani said on Thursday that Barack Obama's campaign is capturing an "anti-American feeling," The Hill reports.

"Well this is why he is a popular candidate in Europe, because there is such an anti-American feeling and he is sort of capturing that," Giuliani said on MSNBC.

Giuliani's comments came in response to Obama's suggestion at a town hall meeting in Georgia that American children should learn how to speak Spanish. The former Republican presidential candidate said that while it is beneficial for English-speaking children to learn a second language, Obama wrongly assumed that immigrant families are learning English.

"The reality is that this is a country that should speak English…and if we can learn an extra language or two that would be terrific," Giuliani said.

The president and first lady may be solidly behind John McCain's candidacy, but one of their daughters isn't backing any candidate at the moment and even hinted at the possibility that she could even defy the family name by considering one of the Democrats.

"I don't know," she told CNN's Larry King when asked if she had a favorite between the Democratic candidates, reports the AP. "I mean, who isn't open to learning about the candidates? But, I mean, and I'm sure everybody is like that. But I really — I honestly have been too busy with books to really pay that much attention."

Jenna Bush was appearing with her mother on "Larry King Live" to promote their new book, "Read All About it."

This isn't the first time the child of a prominent politician has made headlines due to his or her allegiance—or lack there of—during the 2008 presidential campaign.

Last August, then GOP candidate Rudy Giuliani's daughter Caroline made news by posting on her Facebook profile that she was an Obama supporter.

And back in February, while Mitt Romney's son Josh was contemplating his own run for Congress, he said that he could not envision himself campaigning for John McCain.

"It's one thing to campaign for my dad, someone whose principles I line up with almost entirely," he told the Deseret News. "I can't say the same thing for Sen. McCain."

Ronald Reagan's presence once again filled a Republican presidential debate but, as has been the case in this year's campaign, his 11th commandment was largely ignored as John McCain and Mitt Romney found plenty of ill to speak about one another.

Behind all of Romney's talk about who McCain has done shady and liberal legislative business with in the past (names like Feingold, Kennedy and Lieberman) and his position that anyone endorsed by the New York Times can’t be a true conservative (although he seemed to think that paper was a legitimate defender of his own campaign against McCain's charges), there lay a clear message to conservatives: This is your last chance to deny McCain the nomination.

McCain's sometimes stiff, sometimes stumbling, defense of his record and continued insistence that Romney did at one point support timetables for withdrawing troops from Iraq (or, in the rather tortured reasoning, at least was willing to give politically safe non-answers on the topic) held a similar message to the same audience: You might want to think twice before deciding that this former Massachusetts governor is a conservative.

Romney's attacks on McCain are more straightforward and transparent, and are the same made by many conservative leaders and opinion-shapers. They are based on his record, on his publicly-stated positions and statements. McCain's arguments are more, well, subtle. Romney correctly pointed out that many media fact-checkers have largely debunked the idea that Romney supported timetables.

But McCain stuck to his guns which did two things that favor him: First, it keeps the topic on the friendly ground of Iraq and national security and, second, he was able to tie it to Romney's reputation for taking positions that are convenient at the moment. "Your answer should have been 'no,'" McCain said. Not, that timetables should be discussed but not announced, simply, "no."

McCain's tactic on the question may not do him much good among conservatives already predisposed to find an anyone-but-McCain candidate to back. But it’s kept a bit of the heat off himself and put Romney on the defensive at a key moment in this campaign. With a favorable calendar on Super Tuesday and big endorsements coming in by the day (he gets Gov. Schwarzenegger's backing today), McCain is smelling the nomination he has long sought and doesn't appear ready to back off now.

McCain appeared to justify his line of attack by blaming Romney for the millions of dollars of attack ads he's run in this campaign. "Your negative ads, my friend, have set the tone, unfortunately, in this campaign," he told Romney. McCain is not about to change that tone with the big prize seemingly in reach.

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Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBSNews.com offers her analysis of what might happen to John Edwards’ supporters now that he is dropping out:

On the Republican side, we can make the assumption that many of those who favored Rudy Giuliani will now support John McCain – he’s tough on terrorism, he appeals to independent voters, much as the former Mayor of New York hoped to. But trying to figure out what the Edwards supporters will do is not so easy.

The Florida Democratic primary may not have mattered in terms of delegates, but it can tell us what a lot of voters do without a real campaign in their state. Edwards voters in Florida were very different from those favoring Barack Obama and those voting for Hillary Clinton.

First of all, Edwards had almost no minority support. One percent of African-Americans and only 8 percent of Hispanics voted for him. He ran best with white men, getting one in four of their votes (about the same share that Obama received). One in four Edwards voters called themselves conservatives – and just a third said they were liberal. Majorities of Clinton and Obama voters called themselves liberals.

[By the way, Clinton received 25 percent of African-American votes in Florida, and Obama 23 percent of white votes.]

Second, the Edwards supporters were the most likely to say that they would be dissatisfied if either of the other candidates won the nomination. Fifty-three percent of them would be dissatisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 52 percent if Obama won (most of Clinton’s and Obama’s voters said they’d be satisfied whatever the final outcome). Edwards voters were also much less likely to think that the country overall was ready to elect a black or a female president than other voters were – 59 percent versus 82 percent of all Florida Democrats in the case of a woman, 57 percent versus 71 percent in the case of a black.

This isn’t a white male feeling – men and women who voted for Edwards answered these questions pretty much the same way.

So Edwards might not be able to move his voters to either of the other candidates en masse. Some of his supporters will clearly opt not to support either Clinton or Obama.

"The winner of Florida will win the nomination" said Rudy Giuliani on the eve of yesterday's primary. He did not win and is now, or soon will be, out of the running. Mitt Romney did not win and now faces the prospect of sinking millions more of his own fortune into an uphill fight for the nomination.

John McCain did win Florida – along with every single one of the state's 57 delegates – and is in the pole position as the race heads into what could be the final turn. Should he turn Giuliani's prediction into reality and win the GOP nomination, he will have done it the old-fashioned way, the way Republican candidates have long done it, he will have earned it -- and, because it's his turn.

The GOP has a habit of passing over those rhetorical sparkplugs who, though touch a cord with a key part of their party, end up marginalized or deemed unfitting for the nomination. The party has a tendency of turning back wealthy newcomers who flash their cash, not because it's a party distrustful of those who succeed in that way but because they are not the party of upstarts. The GOP usually nominates those who have waited their turn. And, even in this topsy-turvy campaign season, it's McCain's turn.

Should the Arizona senator, as reported by CBS News among others, get the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani today – and perhaps the public support of his close friend and former candidate Fred Thompson before Super Tuesday – it will be a visible signal of a coming together of the party around McCain.

Alongside of his failure to win one of the four major primary contests, such images will put Romney on the outside looking in – rarely a good position in the GOP.

To be sure, there are plenty of informal allies for Romney to band together with – conservative power brokers in Washington, radio talk-show hosts and rank-and-file believers across the country who remain distrustful, in some cases flat-out antagonistic about McCain. And Romney has deep pockets to dig into for a Super Tuesday ad blast.

But it says much about how Romney is perceived by those who shared the campaign trail and debate stages with him over the past year that they would begin to coalesce around McCain. It's no secret that the former Massachusetts governor would not win a popularity contest amongst the once-large field. Some of that may be because McCain and Mike Huckabee recall all-too clearly the millions of dollars in attack ads Romney ran against them in Iowa and New Hampshire. Some of it may be a feeling among the group that Romney simply has tried to buy this nomination – and has been rather blatant in shifting his positions to do it.

But mostly, it's McCain's turn – we may know a week from now if Republican voters agree.

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We've seen some big moments on this primary campaign over the past several days but don't let yourself be fooled – the biggest is yet to come. Each day brings some new moment assured to "change the course of the campaign."

An endorsement here, harsh comment or negative ad there, each instance is elevated to great importance. Then, as they have done in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, the voters actually speak. Today Florida votes at moment which should help bring some clarity to the race but only serves to further set the stage for next week's big Super Tuesday blowout.

It looks like the end for Rudy Giuliani, who declared this his must-win state and predicted whoever wins Florida will win the nomination. It appears only a miracle would provide Giuliani the ability to go forward and, while he has publicly said he will join the remaining Republicans in tomorrow's televised debate in California, there are also signals that today might well mark the end of his campaign.

Conventional wisdom appears to be meshing with Giuliani in that there is a lot of talk about Florida being the end-game for the GOP. Whoever wins here between John McCain and Mitt Romney will have the edge heading into next week's Super Tuesday (really, can we get past trying to come up with catchier names and just stick with what works?). Maybe, especially since the winner will walk away with a huge chunk of delegates. But unless there's a blowout one way or another it seems likely to simply set up a two-way battle that might grow even more contentious over the next seven days.

Florida is also playing a lesser role among Democrats. Hillary Clinton is drawing more catcalls and criticism from the Obama campaign and the media for what is being cast as a stunt. Showing up to claim what is probably a meaningless victory does have the scent of a politician wishing to change the subject from losing both the South Carolina and Ted Kennedy primaries.

It may be a political ploy on Clinton's part but it is far more understandable than the adversarial position taken by the national Democratic Party and the Obama camp toward the crucial general election state. Democrats may end up thanking Clinton for insisting that voters in Michigan and Florida both received at least lip-service from someone during the primary process instead of punishment. These are, after all, two fairly important states.

Today is another day in campaign 2008 but it's hardly the last – and there are miles to go before the nominees can get some sleep.

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Rudy Giuliani is playing the liberal media card.

In a new Web-only ad targeting Florida voters, "Not Endorsed," an announcer casts Giuliani's lack of endorsements from "the liberal New York Times" and other "liberal newspapers" as a reason to vote for the former New York City mayor.

“Rudy Giuliani is not endorsed by The Tampa Tribune," the announcer says in the spot. "Not endorsed by the Orlando Sentinel. Not endorsed by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. In fact, he’s not endorsed by any of the liberal newspapers.”

The reason, according to the ad? Giuliani wants to cut taxes, appoint conservative federal judges, grow the military, make citizens speak English, and force welfare recipients to work. And when those are your positions, the spot concludes, "you’re the last person on earth to be endorsed by the liberal New York Times."

When the Times is mentioned, the screen shows the newspaper's banner and the words "The New York Times Endorses John McCain and Hillary Clinton." It's a double-shot at McCain, linking Giuliani's rival to both the Times and to Clinton. Script and video here.

Giuliani, who has staked his campaign on winning the Florida primary, sits in third or fourth in most Florida polls. Voters in the state go to the polls tomorrow.