All Blog Posts from Horserace

Christmas may bring a short break for the candidates, but it doesn't mean they won't be thinking, worrying or strategizing about the campaign. With the holiday coming up, CBS News senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield has a list of the gifts the candidates should be wishing for under the tree. He shared the list on The Early Show this morning.

Mike Huckabee: WEIGHT — Not the weight he lost, the 110 pounds… political weight, gravitas. People know him as an agreeable charismatic guy, but he has to convince people he's actually the right guy in the Oval Office.

Rudy Giuliani: LONG DIVISION — Which means he needs the Republican field to stay divided for as long as possible. It looks less and less likely he can win an early contest. But if the early contests are split, then his strategy of waiting til Florida and February 5 has more resonance than if one guy emerges.

Mitt Romney: A CASE OF BUYER'S REMORSE — He needs the social conservatives in Iowa to take a look at the guy they flocked to, Mike Huckabee, and say you know what, 'I don't think so, he's got too many problems.' A second gift for Mitt Romney is somebody to muss his hair. It's too perfect. A lot of people have noticed the startling resemblance between Mitt Romney and that of the Muppet game show host Guy Smiley. He's got to have a mussed-up hairdo soon.

Read full post…

The recent run of ads featuring sweater-clad candidates wishing Iowans happy holidays may be enough to prove that the presidential campaigns think it’s possible to score political points at Christmastime.

But is that actually the case? Two leading pollsters in Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t totally sure – though they say that even if the candidates can do little to sway voters this time of year, that doesn’t mean the winter holidays cause public opinion to freeze like an ice pond.

“My guess is that caucus attendees are highly engaged politically and conversations will continue,” said Ann Selzer, whose firm conducts The Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register. “Are they going to candidate’s events? Probably not. Do they have less time for reading or Web surfing? Probably. But they are still talking to people.”

Selzer said the wide-open nature of this year’s race, in both parties, makes the presidential race an irresistible topic, even as Iowans rush to buy Christmas presents.

Dick Bennett, head of the New Hampshire-based American Research Group says that while politics still might be off-limits for Christmas dinner conversation, Granite State voters aren’t taking any sort of electoral vacation with their primary only a couple weeks away.

“The 24th and the 25th, they want that time [to themselves],” he said. “But I think beginning on the 26th and through New Year's, suddenly this is an important decision and it gets put back on the front burner, like anything else.”

Bennett said the holiday rush hasn’t made people any less willing to talk to pollsters, indicating an excitement about the election – and an electorate that still hasn’t made up its mind. Once voters have settled firmly on a candidate, he said, their desire to stay on the phone for a poll drops off.

But it’s still difficult to gauge the effects of the holidays on public opinion because there’s no previous example for comparison. In 2004, the Iowa caucuses were in mid-January, meaning the mad dash of the final two weeks came after New Year’s Day.

“We just have nothing to go on,” Selzer said. “Anything is speculation based on nothing. I try to base my speculation on data or experience.”

Mitt Romney's campaign will launch a new ad in Iowa tomorrow contrasting his record against Mike Huckabee's on crime. You can see the ad here. Text:

"Two pro-life Governors. Both support a constitutional amendment to protect traditional marriage. The difference? Romney got tough on drugs like meth. He never pardoned a single criminal. And Mike Huckabee? He granted 1,033 pardons and commutations, including 12 convicted murderers. Huckabee granted more clemencies than the previous three governors combined. Even reduced penalties for manufacturing methamphetamine. On crime. The difference is judgment."

For his part, Huckabee will reportedly begin running a new ad in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina that is more a televised Christmas card than contrast ad – or is it? In the ad, Huckabee bemoans the rash of political ads at the holiday season when what people really want to think about is "the birth of Christ." Here's the not-so-subtle text, you can see the ad here:

"Are you about worn out of all the television commercials you've been seeing, mostly about politics? I don't blame you. At this time of year, sometimes it's nice to pull aside from all of that and just remember that what really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ and being with our family and our friends. I hope that you and your family will have a magnificent Christmas season. And on behalf of all of us, God bless and merry Christmas."