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Political watchers may be focused on next Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, but those states aren't next in line on the nominating calendar. That designation falls to the territory of Guam, where four delegates are up for grabs in caucuses tomorrow.

And in a tight Democratic nomination battle in which every delegate counts, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are not ignoring the oft-overlooked territory, which is about 20 hours from Washington D.C. by plane but just a few hours from Japan.

Both are engaging in local advertising in an effort to win over the 3,000-plus people expected to caucus in Guam, though neither candidate has campaigned there in person. Clinton, the Wall Street Journal notes, is reminding residents of her many visits to the island in the 1990s, while Obama is referencing his childhood in Hawaii and Indonesia.

"I learned firsthand about the unique issues facing Pacific island communities," Obama said in a letter published in the territory's newspapers. He has also said that local contractors should do much of the construction work for US military forces – the island houses a major naval base.

Guam residents are U.S. citizens, but they cannot vote in the general election. Clinton has suggested that needs to be changed.

"Guam deserves equity, rights and privileges that go with voting and equity in certain programs like education and healthcare. We want to work for empowerment and self-determination," she said.

CBS News political consultant Joe Trippi notes that the focus on caucus contests by Barack Obama's campaign not only has paid off nicely but is also the primary reason he's got a 110 delegate lead over Hillary Clinton, according to CBS News estimates. Obama's win in today's Wyoming caucuses netted him a total of 2 delegates but his focus on these types of contests have given him a solid lead overall. Here's Trippi's take:

According to the CBS delegates estimate we are projecting 1,570 delegates for Obama and 1,460 delegates for Clinton, a 110 delegate lead for Obama.

But look at the caucus states before today and you can see where Obama gained his lead and where the Clinton campaign blundered so badly they may not be able to recover and win the nomination (see here for the full tally).

Clinton contested three caucus states -- Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. She won two of the three, kept Iowa close and tied Obama 41 delegates to 41 delegates across all three states.

Obama won all the other uncontested caucus states by astoundingly large margins. In these states Obama won 232 delegates to Clinton's 110 delegates, a full 122 delegate advantage for Obama.

In other words Obama leads Clinton by 110 delegates but he gained a 122 delegate advantage (more than his entire delegate lead to date) in states in which Clinton did not compete. Clinton virtually handed Obama the delegate lead that seems so insurmountable today.

If Clinton fails to win the nomination it will be the blunder of failing to contest every caucus state that will have cost her the prize. It was either a blunder of strategy or a blunder of failing to guard the resources needed to put organizers on the ground to contest these states.

Today the Clinton campaign has shifted strategy -- contesting for every vote and every delegate in the Wyoming caucuses. But does the shift come 122 delegates too late.

A failure of her campaign -- not a failure of Clinton as a candidate -- may have cost Hillary the nomination.

With voters in Texas going to the polls on Tuesday, MoveOn.org – which supports Barack Obama – has scheduled what the liberal organization is billing as the "Largest One-Day Phone Bank in Presidential Primary History" for this weekend.

Among the participants? Halle Berry, Sen. Ted Kennedy and Jim Hightower, who will be among those making 400,000 calls to Texas Democratic voters, MoveOn said in a release. "The primary and caucus in Texas could very well be the decisive vote in the nominating process, and our members are fired up to help out" said Eli Pariser, Executive Director of MoveOn.

Berry and her cohorts might not be fired up if they're pressed to explain to exactly what's happening on Tuesday on Texas, however, as the state's electoral system might charitably be called convoluted.

The Washington Post, which notes that the Texas delegate selection plan is 37 pages long (read it here!), offers a quick overview, noting that "two-thirds of the state's 228 delegates will be chosen based on the vote in each of 31 state Senate districts. The remaining delegates will be chosen based in part on the outcome of caucuses held on election night after the polls close."

That's just the beginning: Districts yield varying amounts of delegates based on the relative number of ballots cast in the 2004 presidential campaign and 2006 gubernatorial election, and the system could yield a situation reminiscent of the 2000 general election in which the winner of the popular vote does not win the most delegates.

As for the caucuses, you can only show up if you voted in the primary, and the Post notes that the lack of precinct chairs has created a situation in which inconsistency between precincts could influence the outcome. And then there's early voting, which began last week and is expected to be a significant factor, and the fact that 32 of the states 228 delegates are actually superdelegates not tied to the popular vote.

Finally, consider this: While Texas may offer the most confusing system we've seen so far this election season, it's far from alone. In Nevada, for example, Clinton won the popular vote but lost the delegate count, and political reporters have been puzzling their way through confusing rules about concepts like viability thresholds as this extended and unprecedented primary season has unfolded.

You might be among those who believe that elections should be simple. As the last few months have reminded us, more often than not they're anything but.

With voters in Texas going to the polls on Tuesday, MoveOn.org – which supports Barack Obama – has scheduled what the liberal organization is billing as the "Largest One-Day Phone Bank in Presidential Primary History" for this weekend.

Among the participants? Halle Berry, Sen. Ted Kennedy and Jim Hightower, who will be among those making 400,000 calls to Texas Democratic voters, MoveOn said in a release. "The primary and caucus in Texas could very well be the decisive vote in the nominating process, and our members are fired up to help out" said Eli Pariser, Executive Director of MoveOn.

Berry and her cohorts might not be fired up if they're pressed to explain to exactly what's happening on Tuesday on Texas, however, as the state's electoral system might charitably be called convoluted.

The Washington Post, which notes that the Texas delegate selection plan is 37 pages long (read it here!), offers a quick overview, noting that "two-thirds of the state's 228 delegates will be chosen based on the vote in each of 31 state Senate districts. The remaining delegates will be chosen based in part on the outcome of caucuses held on election night after the polls close."

That's just the beginning: Districts yield varying amounts of delegates based on the relative number of ballots cast in the 2004 presidential campaign and 2006 gubernatorial election, and the system could yield a situation reminiscent of the 2000 general election in which the winner of the popular vote does not win the most delegates.

As for the caucuses, you can only show up if you voted in the primary, and the Post notes that the lack of precinct chairs has created a situation in which inconsistency between precincts could influence the outcome. And then there's early voting, which began last week and is expected to be a significant factor, and the fact that 32 of the states 228 delegates are actually superdelegates not tied to the popular vote.

Finally, consider this: While Texas may offer the most confusing system we've seen so far this election season, it's far from alone. In Nevada, for example, Clinton won the popular vote but lost the delegate count, and political reporters have been puzzling their way through confusing rules about concepts like viability thresholds as this extended and unprecedented primary season has unfolded.

You might be among those who believe that elections should be simple. As the last few months have reminded us, more often than not they're anything but.

Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBS News provides a first-hand glimpse at how the presidential race has yet to reach a fevered pitch in laid-back Hawaii, a state holding caucuses tomorrow:

Hilo, Hawaii -- Last week, the state of Maryland had to keep its polls open to account for a snowstorm that created traffic gridlock. Last week, it rained on much of Hawaii, but the weather will be different for Tuesday’s caucuses. The only snow is on top of the volcanic mountains of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. It’s February on the Big Island.

The Big Island of Hawaii boasts the state’s second largest city – but Hilo’s 40,000 or so population is dwarfed by Honolulu’s more than 300,000.

There is campaigning – radio ads from Hawaii’s native son Barack Obama – and the ads end by reminding listeners that all (or at least most) politics is local: “Barack Obama is Hawaii's chance to elect a native son president.” They begin with Obama himself: "Almost 50 years ago, my family came to Hawaii in search of a better life. I was born here, and grew up here. This beautiful state and its great people hold a special place in my heart.”

There are the usual political divisions here: the Hawaii Government Employees Association’s parent union AFSCME, has endorsed Clinton. Chelsea Clinton is in Honolulu (where in Hawaiian tradition she was festooned with leis at the opening of a community health center clinic), will work a phone bank at the union, and will then travel to Maui. Obama’s half-sister, Maya Soetoro-Eng, lives in Honolulu, and has been campaigning for Obama.

But the politics of the caucus hasn’t quite reached most of Hilo. Three days before another in a series of critical delegate selection events, there are no yard signs, no campaign headquarters, no campaign presence at the Mall or at Saturday’s downtown farmer’s market, or at the celebration of the Chinese New Year. There, children competing in the costume contest are described, as Obama might have been when he was a boy, by their own mostly diverse ethnic backgrounds. For example, one contestant was described as Chinese, Portuguese, Filipino and German.

Despite the apparent lack of typical politicking, turnout is expected to be high.

In advance of Saturday's caucuses, Washington State Governor Christine Gregoire has endorsed Barack Obama.

“We must restore hope in America," she said. "We must put an end to politics of division - by gender, race, and faith. Barack Obama has a unique ability to reach across all the artificial divides and divisions to move our nation forward. At a time of great division in our country, we need a leader who will unite us. Barack Obama is that kind of leader."

Both Washington senators, on the other hand, have endorsed rival Hillary Clinton – something the Clinton campaign trumpets in an ad now running in the state.

"Now, she's the only candidate for president -- Democrat or Republican -- with a plan to provide health care for every American," an announcer says in the spot. "Just one reason why she's earned the support of Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell."



80 delegates are up for grabs in Washington, along with 17 (increasingly important) superdelegates, of which Gregoire is one. CBS News now estimates that Clinton leads Obama 1,075 delegates to 1,014, with 2,025 needed to secure the nomination.

Former Democratic state party chair Paul Berendt says Washington State, where both senators are campaigning today, "is the home of independent, cranky, edgy Democratic liberalism." Obama, who does well in caucuses, is considered the favorite in the contest.

The bad blood between the Clinton and Obama campaigns first reached a fevered pitch in the lead-up to Nevada's caucuses, and it appears the state will continue to serve as a battleground – not over votes, but over tactics.

The Obama campaign has asked the Nevada Democratic Party to investigate claims the Clinton campaign engaged in voter suppression on caucus day, including door closings, obstruction of voters, and improper handling of voter preference cards, according to the Associated Press. Obama's team says they aren't seeking a change in the outcome – Clinton won, 51 percent to Obama's 45 percent – so there may be other motives at play.

Both campaigns accused the other of dirty tricks in the days immediately before and after the caucuses. Clinton's side claims groups of Obama supporters tried to intimidate Clinton backers. And Obama's campaign has accused the Clinton campaign of distributing inaccurate instructions that resulted in registration at some caucus sites being cut off a half hour early.

With the race now firmly focused on South Carolina, why speak up about a past contest? Claims of voter suppression may strike a chord among African Americans, who make up a large part of the South Carolina electorate and endured widespread harassment and intimidation during the days of Jim Crow – some of which still continues today. And, on a larger scale, it could help back up the "they'll do anything to win" narrative the Obama campaign is trying to attach to Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Ben Smith at our partner Politico reports that Bill Clinton has claimed to have personally witnessed voter suppression in Nevada.

The alleged suppressors: Representatives of the 60,000-strong Culinary Workers Union, which has endorsed Barack Obama.

"Today when my daughter and I were wandering through the hotel, and all these culinary workers were mobbing us telling us they didn’t care what the union told them to do, they were gonna caucus for Hillary," Clinton reportedly said.

Clinton continued: "There was a representative of the organization following along behind us going up to everybody who said that, saying 'if you’re not gonna vote for our guy we're gonna give you a schedule tomorrow so you can’t be there.' So, is this the new politics? I haven’t seen anything like that in America in 35 years."

Culinary Workers political director Pilar Weiss called Clinton's suggestion "ludicrous" and "technically impossible." Smith notes that "Vegas papers haven't found any evidence of the kind of straightforward voter suppression Clinton reports."

"We have found it shocking that President Clinton has gotten so engaged in promoting these accusations," Weiss told Politico.

Starting Gate: Iowa Hangovers, New Hampshire Buzz

Congratulations, you just won the Iowa caucuses. Your prize: Five more grueling days of campaigning in New Hampshire! Some thoughts heading into the Granite State:

If your campaign has suffered a decisive loss and a near must-win contest looming in a matter of days, how should you respond? The lesson plan from campaign 101 class freshman year says the answer is clear – go negative. Barack Obama, John McCain and, to a lesser extent Mike Huckabee, should expect their opponents to increasingly seek to talk about the "real differences" between them.

Even before voters began streaming into Iowa caucus sites, Mitt Romney was on the air with a new ad attacking McCain on the issue of tax cuts. But that approach didn’t serve Romney well in Iowa. Despite millions spent criticizing Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor soared to a big victory. New Hampshire, the legend goes, is not "Iowa nice" and likes its politics a little rougher. Candidates like Romney and Clinton may have little choice. If they have some bullets left in the chamber, we may see them fired over the weekend.

Odd as it seems, there may be a silver lining in Clinton's loss in Iowa. The fact that she came in a very close third leave John Edwards hanging tight in the race. In interviews and comments after the results, Edwards signaled that he feels the time has come to perhaps engage Obama in a more direct manner. Arguing that the results demonstrated the mood for "change," Edwards then went on to insist there are differences between his brand and Obama's. Should Edwards begin to express those differences in an aggressive manner, Clinton could gain from the fight. At the very least, it puts her in a position to not be the only one criticizing Obama.

Nobody may be suffering a bigger hangover from Iowa than Romney. His strategy was largely based on gaining unstoppable momentum in the early contests and rolling into Super-Duper Tuesday on February 5th. Having lost the first one, winning the second suddenly becomes much more difficult. And a loss in New Hampshire could prove disastrous for a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts. While Michigan's primary looms shortly after New Hampshire, that contest has been largely ignored by both the candidates and the media. A win there does not necessarily translate into momentum and McCain has also been active there, a strategy that could bury Romney should the Arizona senator win there.

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DES MOINES -- I just ran into a precinct captain for John Edwards near the hotel in downtown Des Moines where Edwards gave his post-caucus address. She described the "drunken" scene at the hotel amongst Edwards workers who have spent the last few months working on behalf of the candidate here, and talked about her relief that the Iowa campaign was finally over.

The precinct captain also said she "feels bad" for Joe Biden and Bill Richardson, who came in at just 1 and 2 percent support here. (Biden has since dropped out.) They were both polling higher in Iowa, but because of the Democratic viability threshold in Iowa – candidates must have a certain level of support at a caucus, usually 15 percent, or their supporters must caucus for another candidate – they ended up with nearly negligible vote totals.

After it was announced that Richardson was not viable, the precinct captain said she "went over and got a few of the Richardson people" to caucus for Edwards. It was one more small example of the odd nature of the caucuses: After months of campaigning, millions of dollars spent, and untold television ads and phone calls, garnering voters can come down to something as simple as a gentle nudge on caucus night.