All Blog Posts from Horserace

Former presidential candidate John Edwards made his first public appearance since his admission of an extra-marital affair last summer with a speech at Indiana University last night. Talking about the election, Edwards said that outcome “symbolizes what’s possible in America,” according to the AP and added that he thinks President-elect Obama benefited from focusing on voter concerns like the war, the economy and health care.

Edwards reiterated his desire to continue to work on poverty issues. And while he took questions from the audience, they were submitted in advance and the subject of his affair did not come up.

The word from campaign insiders is that neither candidate is likely to select his running mate for at least another month. But remember, at this point in 2004 John Edwards was already stumping with John Kerry, having been added to the Democratic ticket on July 6 of that year.

The conventions are later than usual this cycle, so the presumptive nominees have some extra time to mull over their options. But that doesn't mean Sen. Obama or Sen. McCain won't pull a fast one on us all by announcing the VP choice earlier than expected. At the very least, we know that the vetting process has already begun on the Democratic side, after CBS News chief political consultant Marc Ambinder reported that the Obama campaign asked Virginia Senator Jim Webb to hand over personal information. Webb refused to do so and subsequently removed himself from consideration.

Webb drops all the way out of the Democratic side of the latest CBSNews.com VP Hot Sheet as Delaware Senator Joe Biden rockets to the top half of the pack. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel and Indiana's Evan Bayh also move up on the list. And Obama's "other" former rival John Edwards cracks the top ten after changing his tune on whether he'd accept an offer to join the ticket.

Trailing significantly in most recent North Carolina polls, Hillary Clinton would like nothing more than to somehow wrestle an endorsement from John Edwards before his home state votes on May 6th. So far, the former senator and presidential candidate has not given any signals as to whether he even will make an endorsement, let alone toward which candidate he may be leaning towards. But his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, did give the nod to Clinton’s health care plan over Barack Obama’s in an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America” today.

“I do think that in order to ensure that we have universal coverage we need to say that everybody has to join, so for that reason the mandates that Senator Clinton is talking about I think will actually be more successful in achieving the goal," Edwards said. "I think they both have the same goals, I just have more confidence in Senator Clinton's policy than Senator Obama's on this particular issue."

What constitutes “universal coverage” and how to best get there has been one of the major flashpoints during the campaign, with Clinton insisting the lack of mandates in the Obama plan would inevitably leave many adults uninsured. As for an endorsement, Elizabeth Edwards said her husband continues to talk with both candidates but cautioned, “we think that what we have to offer them is not so much an endorsement as a perspective on what we found as we crossed the country on what people think are important issues and the solutions that seemed most realistic.”

CBS News political consultant Joe Trippi weighs in on the future of the Democratic race following Hillary Clinton's wins in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island:

The night of Super Tuesday it became clear that if you looked over the horizon Obama was going to be in the driver's seat for 10 or 11 contests, and that the first night Clinton would have a clear shot at victory would be March 4th in Ohio and Texas. It also became apparent that if Obama could target Texas and win it he might be able to break Clinton's back and stop any real chance at a Clinton nomination.

Now that the Clinton campaign has done what it needed to stop Obama's momentum and light up Clinton's, here is a look at what's next over the horizon.

Wyoming: Obama may have a leg up in the Wyoming Caucuses -- but the Clinton Campaign looks like it has learned its lesson in the Texas caucuses. In the end the state is too small to matter much but every delegate does count.

Mississippi: Obama's. Period.

Pennsylvania: Hillary Clinton should win this state by as big a margin as she won Ohio. Gov. Ed Rendell is much more political and has more power over the Democratic party infrastructure than Gov. Strickland of Ohio.

Watch North Carolina

Just as I pointed to Texas as the place that I thought Obama would try to break Clinton's back, North Carolina now becomes the pivotal contest. It's the place where I expect the Clinton Campaign will try to break Obama's back.

Barack Obama has performed terribly among white southern Baptists and the state with the second highest percentage of white southern Baptists is North Carolina. Clinton won Tennessee by 13 points 54 percent to 41 percent and North Carolina is much more like Tennessee demographically than states Obama has done well in like Virginia or South Carolina.

I know it breaks with conventional wisdom that Pennsylvania is the most important state. But realistically if Clinton can't win Pennsylvania she won't be the nominee. The way Clinton puts Obama away is to win Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania and then roll into North Carolina and break his back there.

If she does it -- and it is possible she will have a strong case to the Super Delegates.

Read full post…

Today John and Elizabeth Edwards were joined by surrogates from MoveOn.org, SEIU, the Center for American Progress, USAction, VoteVets.org and Americans United for Change in a conference call to talk about a new joint project reports CBS News' Michelle Levi. The new initiative seeks to draw a link between the ongoing war in Iraq with economic concerns at home and the participants pledged to keep the issue at the forefront in the both presidential and congressional campaigns.

The coalition vowed to be a substantial voice this election year by targeting presumptive GOP nominee John McCain as the candidate who will continue Bush's policies in Iraq and by working on the ground in states and congressional districts where the incumbent is challenged by an anti-war candidate (including Democratic candidates). A surrogate from each entity outlined what their organizations plan to do individually.

Speaking from his home in North Carolina, John Edwards credited Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for continuing to make "clear they will end the war in Iraq" and said he "wants to make sure [voters] know they have a clear choice between a Democratic candidate who will end the war and the other choice … who will continue failed policies." Elizabeth Edwards reiterated her husbands concern about poverty, saying that the nation has "a limited amount of money, and we are spending too much on the war."

Vote Vets, an organization founded by military veterans, released a new ad which, according to the release, will have a limited run on cable in the Washington, DC area this week. The ad features an Iraq veteran with her infant son and alludes to McCain's comments that he's committed to staying in Iraq for a lengthy period of time. The veteran says, "this is my little boy. He was born a year after I came back from Iraq. What kind of commitment are you making to him? How about a thousand years of affordable health care, or a thousand years of keeping America safe? Can we afford that for my child, Senator McCain? Or have you already promised to spend trillions -- in Baghdad?"

Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBSNews.com offers her analysis of what might happen to John Edwards’ supporters now that he is dropping out:

On the Republican side, we can make the assumption that many of those who favored Rudy Giuliani will now support John McCain – he’s tough on terrorism, he appeals to independent voters, much as the former Mayor of New York hoped to. But trying to figure out what the Edwards supporters will do is not so easy.

The Florida Democratic primary may not have mattered in terms of delegates, but it can tell us what a lot of voters do without a real campaign in their state. Edwards voters in Florida were very different from those favoring Barack Obama and those voting for Hillary Clinton.

First of all, Edwards had almost no minority support. One percent of African-Americans and only 8 percent of Hispanics voted for him. He ran best with white men, getting one in four of their votes (about the same share that Obama received). One in four Edwards voters called themselves conservatives – and just a third said they were liberal. Majorities of Clinton and Obama voters called themselves liberals.

[By the way, Clinton received 25 percent of African-American votes in Florida, and Obama 23 percent of white votes.]

Second, the Edwards supporters were the most likely to say that they would be dissatisfied if either of the other candidates won the nomination. Fifty-three percent of them would be dissatisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 52 percent if Obama won (most of Clinton’s and Obama’s voters said they’d be satisfied whatever the final outcome). Edwards voters were also much less likely to think that the country overall was ready to elect a black or a female president than other voters were – 59 percent versus 82 percent of all Florida Democrats in the case of a woman, 57 percent versus 71 percent in the case of a black.

This isn’t a white male feeling – men and women who voted for Edwards answered these questions pretty much the same way.

So Edwards might not be able to move his voters to either of the other candidates en masse. Some of his supporters will clearly opt not to support either Clinton or Obama.

John Edwards wants you to know he's a grown-up.

In a pair of new ads released in South Carolina today, the Democratic presidential hopeful spotlighting the acrimony between rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The television spot, "Grown Up," includes clips of Obama and Clinton criticizing each other from Monday's Democratic debate. Cut to Edwards: "This kind of squabbling - how many children is this gonna get health care? How many people are gonna get an education from this? This is not about us personally. It is about what we are trying to do for this country."


The radio ad, "What Really Matters," strikes similar themes.

"The middle class is being squeezed," an announcer says. "An economic crisis looms. Our nation is at war. And too many Americans have no health care. And what do we get from two Washington politicians running for President? Nasty squabbling and personal attacks."

Listen to the radio spot here.

Cate Edwards, daughter of Democratic candidate John Edwards, was unharmed following a minor accident in Chapel Hill, North Carolina Friday afternoon, according to her father's campaign. The AP reports that the car she was driving was hit by another driver, who was cited for driving impaired among other charges. In 1996, Edwards' 16-year-old son Wade died in an automobile accident when the Jeep he was driving flipped over after strong winds forced it off the road.

DES MOINES -- I just ran into a precinct captain for John Edwards near the hotel in downtown Des Moines where Edwards gave his post-caucus address. She described the "drunken" scene at the hotel amongst Edwards workers who have spent the last few months working on behalf of the candidate here, and talked about her relief that the Iowa campaign was finally over.

The precinct captain also said she "feels bad" for Joe Biden and Bill Richardson, who came in at just 1 and 2 percent support here. (Biden has since dropped out.) They were both polling higher in Iowa, but because of the Democratic viability threshold in Iowa – candidates must have a certain level of support at a caucus, usually 15 percent, or their supporters must caucus for another candidate – they ended up with nearly negligible vote totals.

After it was announced that Richardson was not viable, the precinct captain said she "went over and got a few of the Richardson people" to caucus for Edwards. It was one more small example of the odd nature of the caucuses: After months of campaigning, millions of dollars spent, and untold television ads and phone calls, garnering voters can come down to something as simple as a gentle nudge on caucus night.

John Edwards' presidential campaign is setting out to dispel the myth that it's an Iowa-only organization, releasing on Monday a lengthy list of "key leaders and advisors" in states that will hold contests on Feb. 5 – more than 20 states will vote that day, so many that the Democratic nomination could effectively be decided when the night is through.

However, the list is not exactly overwhelming: Only nine of those states are represented, and some of them have very few names listed. For example, in New Mexico, only attorney general (and possible U.S. Senate candidate) Patricia Madrid is identified as leading Edwards' organization in the state.

Edwards is also a victim of circumstance: Two of the biggest states up for grabs on Feb. 5, Illinois and New York, should be firmly behind Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, respectively. Still, the release is an indication that the campaign is trying to convince pundits and voters alike that its not an Iowa-only operation – even though, in terms of where Edwards himself has traveled in the past four years, that's close to the truth.

The campaign might also be trying to respond to claims made by Barack Obama's organization today. According to CBS News political consultant Marc Ambinder, Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, in a conference call, said, "Sen. Edwards will have no operation to speak of in the Feb. 5 states. I believe Sen. Clinton has political or field organizations in five or six of those states. We have, I believe, 17 of the 22 states covered."

Edwards is also touting support he's received from labor unions and legislators in the Feb. 5 states, as well as the fact that organizing calls have been held in all those states. He's even playing the celebrity card, quoting in the release former Georgia congressman Ben Jones – better known for playing Cooter on "The Dukes Of Hazzard."

"Poll after poll shows John Edwards to be by far our strongest Democratic candidate in the general election," Jones said. "I’m not supporting John Edwards because of polls, but those same surveys show that John Edwards can win in the so-called ‘red states’ and that’s exciting to me."