All Blog Posts from Horserace

Lost in the shuffle on Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens' indictment is that he's right smack in the midst not only of a reelection campaign, but also a primary. Even before Tuesday's news, the Senate’s longest-serving Republican who was first appointed to the Senate in 1968 was in the fight of his career with Anchorage's Democratic mayor Mark Begich. The latest post-indictment poll had Begish up by 13 points.

But looking ahead to November may be putting the cart before the horse. The 84-year old Stevens first has to survive the August 26 Republican primary, which may no longer be a slam-dunk.

Of Stevens' six GOP challengers, the strongest opponents appear to be David Cuddy or Vic Vickers. Cuddy, a real estate developer who also ran in 1996, has polled second to Stevens in surveys taken before the indictment. But it's Vic Vickers, a lawyer, writer, former banking regulator and Florida maritime company owner, who could be the real wild card. A political newcomer who moved to the state in January, Vickers said he plans to spend $750,000 of his own money on his campaign so that will get him attention. Stevens has $1.6 million in the bank, according to Congressional Quarterly.

Vickers said he had been coming to the state for years and decided to run for the senate while researching a book on corruption in Alaska's oil industry. In his television ad, Vickers stands in front of Stevens' house that was searched, saying he is running to "stop corruption" and won't accept special interest money.

"I think I can beat him. I'm confident I can," Vickers told the Anchorage Daily News.

Another note on this race is that the Anchorage Daily News points out that Stevens couldn't pull his name from the ballot for the primary even if he wanted to. But if he won the primary and then resigned by Sept. 18, the state party could pick a replacement for the November ballot.

And there's potential for a lot more drama in this race. How often in a campaign is one of the candidates on trial just six weeks before Election Day? But that will be on tap here if Stevens survives the primary. At his arraignment on Thursday, Stevens specifically asked the judge for a speedy trial that would be resolved before the election. And the judge obliged, setting Sept. 24 as a tentative date. So stay tuned.

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Despite what was thought to be some tough competition in a few races, five House incumbents from Georgia all cruised to victory over primary challengers on Tuesday.

The most notable race was that of Rep. John Lewis of the 5th district in Atlanta, who faced his first primary challenge in 16 years. Lewis, the civil rights leader who has been in Congress since 1987, had received criticism in his district for his initial support of Sen. Hillary Clinton instead of Barack Obama in the Democratic primary. Two younger black candidates -- Rev. Markel Hutchins and state Rep. "Able" Mable Thomas -- challenged Lewis in the primary, but Lewis won with about 70 percent of the vote. He is unopposed in the general election.

The other notable Democratic race was in the 12th district in Eastern Georgia, where Rep. John Barrow defeated state Sen. Regina Thomas with about three-quarters of the vote. As we wrote about earlier in this space, this race was significant because Obama endorsed and recorded a radio ad for Barrow, a white centrist Democrat, over the more liberal black challenger, Thomas, in a district that is 42 percent black. But Barrow, who won his 2006 race by less than 1000 votes, can't rest easy now – he now faces Republican John Stone, a former congressional aide who won the GOP primary.

On the Republican side, the most notable race was that of Rep. Paul Broun in the 10th district in northeast Georgia. Broun, who first won his seat in a special election last year, easily defeated state Rep. Barry Fleming, despite the fact that the challenger had much of the party establishment behind him. Broun is favored to win over Democrat Bobby Saxon in November.

In other Georgia races, Democrats Rep. Jim Marshall and Rep. David Scott also defeated primary challengers. And no Democrats got the needed 50 percent in a Democratic primary for the right to take on incumbent Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss. So there now will be an Aug. 5 runoff election between DeKalb County Chief Executive Officer Vernon Jones and former state lawmaker Jim Martin.

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Republican Rep. Chris Cannon lost his bid for a seventh term on Tuesday when he was defeated by 20 points in the GOP primary in Utah's 3rd district on Tuesday by newcomer Jason Chaffetz, a former BYU football player who served as chief of staff for Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman.

Cannon has been a staunch conservative in Congress with a 96 percent rating from the American Conservative Union, but Chaffetz was able to outflank him on the right in the central Utah district, where President Bush won with 77 percent of the vote in 2004.

Chaffetz claimed Cannon was soft on illegal immigration, pointing to his support of guest-worker programs and allowing states to charge in-state tuition for children of illegal immigrations. Chaffetz instead called for deporting all illegal immigrants and not giving citizenship to the children of non-legal residents. He also said he wanted to eliminate the U.S. Department of Education.

"I think we have a mandate to help return the Republican Party to its core conservative principles," he said in an interview with The Associated Press. "People were fed up and we empowered them to become involved and make the changes we need."

Chaffetz is expected to cruise to victory over in November over Democratic opponent Spencer Bennion.

Cannon is the third incumbent congressman to lose in a primary this year -- joining Republican Wayne T. Gilchrest and Democrat Albert R. Wynn, both in Maryland.

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Democratic Rep. William Jefferson, who became famous for an FBI investigation which found $90,000 cash in his freezer in 2005, announced this week that he would run for re-election in his New Orleans district.

Jefferson is running again despite the fact that he faces a public corruption trial in December. Last year, he was indicted on charges of soliciting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes to broker business deals in Africa.

"The fact that I am the target of an overly zealous prosecution has not prevented my delivering for our district and our state," Jefferson said in a statement. "My family and I have sworn a great oath to trust God and to fight on to vindicate ourselves and our good name. This we will do."

Jefferson, who is seeking his 10th term representing the state's second district, won reelection in 2006 with 57 percent of the vote in a runoff. That election came before the 16-count June 2007 indictment, but the investigation was ongoing and well-known by then, and Democrats had already stripped him of his committee posts.

In addition, his indictment is also not the only court proceeding hanging over Jefferson's family. This week, his sister Brenda Jefferson pleaded guilty to charges related to a case that accuses several family members of skimming money from charitable groups.

Brenda Jefferson pleaded guilty to knowing about the scheme, which allegedly involves her sister, brother and a niece (but not Rep. Jefferson). She is the first member of the family, five of whom have been charged with federal crimes in the past year, to admit guilt, reports The Times-Picayune in New Orleans.

So far, one challenger already announced he will run against Rep. Jefferson –- one-time ally Democratic State Rep. Cedric Richmond, who backed Jefferson in his 2006 re-election bid.

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There’s a new controversy surrounding Al Franken in Minnesota, the front-runner for the Democratic Senate nomination to take on Republican Sen. Norm Coleman in the fall. The comedian and Saturday Night Live alumnus is taking heat for an article entitled "Porn-O-Rama!" that he wrote in Playboy magazine eight years ago.

Democratic Rep. Betty McCollum, who supported Franken’s rival until he dropped out of the race, said in an interview with the Associated Press that she was shocked by the article and that she was worried about other Democrats on the ballot with a candidate "who has pornographic writings that are indefensible."

"As a parent and an aunt, and talking to other parents, people are very concerned about the type of Internet use that's out there, and how it has a potentially harmful effect on children," McCollum said. "Sexually explicit material is one of the things that parents are very concerned about, and want to make sure that they're steering their children away from."

Democratic Reps. Keith Ellison and Tim Walz also expressed concerns about the article, but none of them so far have called on Franken to step aside.

At the state GOP convention on Friday, Coleman also took a swipe at Franken. According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Coleman said that "eight years ago I was making the streets of St. Paul safer and he was writing porn."

Franken’s spokesman responded to the uproar: "Al understands, and the people of Minnesota understand, the difference between what a satirist does and what a senator does.”

Idaho Senate: Voters in Idaho on Tuesday picked nominees to battle for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Larry Craig -- famous for an incident in a airport bathroom last summer that led to him announcing his resignation (and then withdrawing that resignation a few weeks later before it took affect). On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Jim Risch defeated several lesser known challengers with 65 percent of the vote. He will face off against former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco, who won with 72 of the vote. Risch has defeated LaRocco twice before, including the 2006 election for lieutenant governor. He is favored again this time in the rematch.

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Democrats in Kentucky and Oregon were voting for more than just their presidential pick last night. Voters also selected senate candidates to go up against Republican incumbents whom party leaders hope they can knock off in the fall.

In Oregon, House Speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly won the senate primary over activist Steve Novick, who gained attention by making light of a metal hook he has in place of his left hand due to a birth defect (you can see one of his ads here). Merkley was recruited by national party leaders to take on Republican incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith. Oregon is a state that has trended Democratic in recent cycles and is near the top of the party's targets for a takeover in November.

In Kentucky, millionaire businessman Bruce Lunsford defeated seven other Democrats for the chance to take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The powerful four-term incumbent would seem to be safe in a state President Bush carried by 20 points in 2004, but Democrats picked up the governor's mansion last year and are hoping they can ride a Democratic wave in the fall to oust the Senate's top Republican. The race also figures to be a high spending affair as McConnell has already raised at least $12 million and Lunsford spent $14 million in two failed gubernatorial bids in 2003 and 2007 (where he failed to advance beyond the primary).

House Primaries: The most interesting House primary last night was in Oregon's 5th district, where Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley's surprise retirement announcement in February made the district perhaps one of the most competitive in the country. In the Republican primary, Mike Erickson defeated former state Rep. Kevin Mannix, despite the fact that a week ago Mannix sent out a letter accusing Erickson of paying for a girlfriend's abortion eight years ago. Erickson denied the allegations, and the attacks appeared to have backfired. Mannix conceded the race this morning, but said he will not support Erickson, who will face Democratic state Sen. Kurt Schrader in November.

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Incumbents all came out on top in congressional primaries held in Indiana and North Carolina yesterday, though there were a few close races and some interesting match-ups were set up for the fall.

The closest primary race was in the state's central 5th district where Republican Rep. Dan Burton defeated emergency room physician John McGoff, 52 percent to 45 percent. Burton, the state's longest-serving congressman, had come under fire during the campaign for missing House votes during a trip to a charity golf tournament. He will be heavily favored in the Republican leaning district in the fall.

Also in Indiana, Democratic Rep. Andre Carson defeated seven primary challengers with 46 percent of the vote in Indianapolis' 7th district. Carson won the seat in a special election held in March to replace his grandmother, former Rep. Rep. Julia Carson, who died in December. He will now have a rematch of that special election with Republican state Rep. Jon Elrod.

The most competitive House race this fall in Indiana may come in the 9th district in the southeastern part of the state. Democratic Rep. Baron Hill will face former Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel for a fourth consecutive time. Hill defeated Sodrel in 2002 and 2006, with Sodrel winning by 1,500 votes in 2004.

In North Carolina, the most closely watched House primary involved Republican Rep. Walter Jones in the third district, home to the Marine Corps' Camp Lejeune and other bases. Jones came to prominence for touting "Freedom Fries" in the run-up to the Iraq War, but has since has come to oppose the war and was among the few Republican House members to vote for timetables to withdraw U.S. troops. Jones defeated Joe McLaughlin, a former Army officer, by a comfortable 20-point margin, and he is heavily favored in the general election.

The closest House race in North Carolina this November could come in the 11th district in the Western part of the state, where freshmen Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler, the former NFL quarterback, won in 2006 with 54 percent of the vote. Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower won the Republican primary over two others with 48 percent of the vote.

North Carolina Democrats also held a primary for the chance to take on Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole in the fall. Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan beat Chapel Hill entrepreneur Jim Neal by a big margin. Dole is favored, but Democrats in the state believe they have a chance.

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The attention last night was on Hillary Clinton's win over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary, but that was not the only contest to be decided. Voters across the state also voted in primaries for House candidates to run in the fall.

Of the state's 19 congressional districts, there were competitive primaries in four. The most competitive was the Republican primary in District 10, where businessman Chris Hackett beat businessman Dan Meuser 52 percent to 48 percent.

Hackett won in the Northeastern Pennsylvania district despite being heavily outspent by Meuser. Both candidates used their personal wealth in the campaign, totaling $2.6 million.

Hackett will face freshmen Democratic Rep. Chris Carney in November. In 2006, Carney was the first Democrat in four decades elected to Congress from the district when he beat scandal-ridden former Rep. Don Sherwood. Republicans will now be counting on Hackett to put the seat back in the Republican column.

Elsewhere in the state, Centre County GOP chairman Glenn Thompson won a nine-way race for the Republican nomination in the state's 5th district in Central Pennsylvania with 19 percent of the vote. Thompson will face off against Democratic primary winner Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken. Thompson will be heavily favored in the race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. John Peterson.

Also, businessman Steve O'Donnell won the Democratic primary in the 18th district outside Pittsburgh for the chance to run against Republican Rep. Tim Murphy. And Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, the director of the Lake Erie Arboretum, won the right to challenge Republican Rep. Phil English in the 3rd district in northwest Pennsylvania.

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The attention last night was on Hillary Clinton's win over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary, but that was not the only contest to be decided. Voters across the state also voted in primaries for House candidates to run in the fall.

Of the state's 19 congressional districts, there were competitive primaries in four. The most competitive was the Republican primary in District 10, where businessman Chris Hackett beat businessman Dan Meuser 52 percent to 48 percent.

Hackett won in the Northeastern Pennsylvania district despite being heavily outspent by Meuser. Both candidates used their personal wealth in the campaign, totaling $2.6 million.

Hackett will face freshmen Democratic Rep. Chris Carney in November. In 2006, Carney was the first Democrat in four decades elected to Congress from the district when he beat scandal-ridden former Rep. Don Sherwood. Republicans will now be counting on Hackett to put the seat back in the Republican column.

Elsewhere in the state, Centre County GOP chairman Glenn Thompson won a nine-way race for the Republican nomination in the state's 5th district in Central Pennsylvania with 19 percent of the vote. Thompson will face off against Democratic primary winner Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken. Thompson will be heavily favored in the race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. John Peterson.

Also, businessman Steve O'Donnell won the Democratic primary in the 18th district outside Pittsburgh for the chance to run against Republican Rep. Tim Murphy. And Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, the director of the Lake Erie Arboretum, won the right to challenge Republican Rep. Phil English in the 3rd district in northwest Pennsylvania.

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With all the attention being paid to the presidential race, it's easy to forget that the House and Senate are also up for grabs in November. But since there are 435 House seats and a third of the Senate on the ballot, it can be hard to keep track. So we'll be helping you do just that from time to time with a look at all the key developments in those campaigns across the country.

Last week we told you about the latest happenings in the Republican Senate primary campaign in New Jersey. This week things heated up on the Democratic side. On Wednesday, Democratic Rep. Rob Andrews announced he will challenge incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg in the June 3rd primary.

"After consulting with family, friends, supporters and people from all points of view, I have decided that I will place my name and my credentials before the people of New Jersey to serve as their new United States senator," Andrews said. "The people of New Jersey deserve to choose their senator."

Andrews has represented South Jersey's 1st Congressional District since 1990. Party leaders tried to dissuade him from challenging Lautenberg for the sake of party unity.

On Monday, Lautenberg announced he would run for another term and was flanked by scores of local, county and state Democratic leaders. Andrews was conspicuously absent from the gathering.

Age is likely to be a key factor in the race. Lautenberg, who served three terms in the 80s and 90s before retiring in 2000 only to run again in 2002, is 84-years-old now and would be 90 when the next term expires (he is the third oldest member of the Senate). Andrews is 50.

"I am David and he is Goliath, but I think the country is ready for some Davids," Andrews told the Newark Star-Ledger.

Mississippi Run-Offs: On Tuesday, Mississippi voters braved the rain to vote in primary run-offs to pick candidates for two open seats.

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