All Blog Posts from Econwatch

This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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I always get nervous when three or more people who don't study the economy or financial markets say exactly the same thing. This past weekend, it was a teacher, a lawyer and a doctor, all of whom proclaimed: "we're definitely headed for a double-dip recession!"


Every time someone says "double dip" I can't help think of a soft serve ice cream cone plunging into that delicious chocolate coating not once, but twice. That said, are fears of a double dip warranted?

One would have to be brain-dead to not consider the possibility of something bad - really bad, derailing the progress that has occurred since the beginning of this fiasco. Here's a just a few ideas to get you started: a commercial real estate collapse could make the residential market look like a walk in the park; unemployment could get much worse; a large multi-national bank bites the bullet; the Fed blows it; and the weekend favorite, this whole recovery is in your head.

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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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I used to live in Rhode Island, which is why I still take an interest in what's happening there. Little Rhody has gotten crushed in the recession. The last vestiges of its manufacturing base have been vaporized and the contraction in housing have contributed to the state's dismal employment situation.

You'll note from this seal, that "hope" is the motto of RI, as in "I sure do hope the unemployment rate starts to drop soon!" Today, Rhode Islanders poured themselves a little coffee milk to celebrate: according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Regional and State Unemployment rate report, RI unemployment fell for the first time in nearly three years, dropping by a 0.1% to 12.9% in October.

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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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10.2% — that's the most important number from the October Employment Report. For the first time since 1983, the over 1 out of every 10 American is out of work. How's that for starting your Friday with some sobering news?


The 190,000 jobs lost in October means that since the start of the recession in December, 2007, 8.2 million people have lost their jobs and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3%. The numbers in and of themselves would by bad enough, but they don't accurately reflect just how hard it is to find a job. For that, you need to drill down to the U-6 measure of employment, or as my friend the economist likes to say, "the true pain threshold." U-6 starts with the total number of unemployed and adds part time employees and those who are "marginally attached," which means all of those folks people who took crappy jobs that are beneath their skill levels. The U-6 was 17.5% last month.

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If you're looking for good news on unemployment, Moodys.com chief economist Mark Zandi doesn't have it.

Zandi told CBS' "The Early Show" Monday that the nation's near 10 percent unemployment rate will "stay there through this time next year."

However, the economist said, "we're heading in the right direction."

Zandi's comments come on the heels of two drastically different business reports.

Sunday, major lender CIT Group filed for bankruptcy, while Ford Motor Company Monday announced it earned a $1 billion profit in the third quarter.

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The economy may be growing again, but that's little comfort to Americans struggling to find jobs.

But as the unemployment rate inches steadily toward 10 percent, CBS MoneyWatch editor-at-large Jill Schlesinger says there are still sectors hiring.

The health care industry has added 560,000 jobs and remains a huge part of the U.S. economy. And the government claims to have created or saved 380,000 jobs in education through stimulus efforts.

The government itself is hiring, though some of those jobs – like census workers – are temporary.

And the technology sector is experiencing "very good growth," Schlesinger told "Early Show" co-anchor Harry Smith Thursday.

Industries hardest hit by job losses come as no surprise – construction, manufacturing, restaurants and retail continue to struggle.

As far as geography, Schlesinger says heartland states like Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota have been largely spared the full force of the recession, boasting unemployment rates under 5 percent.

Worst areas for job seekers? Michigan, Nevada, Rhode Island and big housing boom states like California.

Climbing the career ladder in today's economy is difficult enough. But young people, from recent college graduates and MBAs to high school dropouts, are finding it harder than ever to even get onto the first rung.

Peter Coy writes in Business Week of "The Lost Generation" — 16- to 24-year-olds for whom unemployment in the U.S. is now more than 18%, up from 13% a year ago. Including fulltime students, less than half of people age 16-24 had jobs in September, the lowest rate since post-WWII,

College graduates and advanced degree holders are suffering as well. Dan Schmitz, 25, a University of Wisconsin graduate with a bachelor's degree in English, told Business Week, "Every morning I wake up thinking today's going to be the day I get a job. I've not had a job for months, and it's getting really frustrating."

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The bad economy has caused renters to vacate their apartments in the largest numbers in more than 20 years, according to a report released Tuesday.

The report from Reis Inc., a property research firm in New York, says the rate of empty apartments across the country hasn't been this high since 1986, Bloomberg News reported. The vacancy rate increased to 7.8 percent at the end of the third quarter, the report from Reis says.

At the same time, rent prices decreased but not by as much. How much tenants pay each month decreased by 2.7 percent. Even the amounts landlords advertised decreased by 1.8 percent.

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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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I have confidence in sunshine
I have confidence in rain
I have confidence that spring will come again
Besides which you see I have confidence in me

-from The Sound of Music (music by Richard Rodgers, lyrics by Oscar Hammerstein II)

Ah, if only life were a Broadway musical!


Despite predictions of increasing consumer confidence, the Conference Board reported this morning that Consumer Confidence dipped in September. The numbers weren't terrible (53.1 in September from 54.5 in August), but analysts had predicted that confidence would actually increase to 57. That would have helped build on the theme that the economy is getting less bad, which is good, so now we can celebrate!

Not so fast - consumers are hip to that old story. It's true that we're all quite pleased that the economy didn't enter a ten-year depression - that explains why confidence numbers have doubled since hitting the "Armageddon is coming" low in February. But for every piece of "the worst is over news" that is reported, here's what most consumers are facing as the evaluate the economic landscape:

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The recession has thrown a growing number of two-career couples a new challenge in their marriage – geography.

With the economy sagging, job hunts are increasingly taking laid-off workers to different cities from their already employed spouses, according to a Wall Street Journal report Tuesday.

The Journal cites a recent survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas that found 18.2 percent of job hunters relocated for their new jobs in the second quarter of this year – a big jump from 11.4 percent a year ago.

Couple that with Labor Department statistics showing more than half of the country's marriages consisted of two working spouses, and it's easy to see how job hunts present added complications for families with established roots in a given locale.

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With all the hoopla around the one-year anniversary of Lehman Brothers' plunge into bankruptcy (we need a Miss Manners consult to determine the correct gift to honor such an event), what has really changed in the lives of ordinary Americans?

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