
(AP Photo/Seth Perlman)
This post by Richard Conniff originally appeared on CBS MoneyWatch.com.
There are plenty of good phrases to sum up the American consumer spirit of the past few decades — such as "Were you completely insane?" But what sticks in my mind is a bumper sticker I once saw displayed on a late-model Hummer hauling a trailer loaded with matching sparkle-painted $15,000 jet skis: "The one who dies with the most toys wins." I couldn't figure out why dying was key to the deal. But now I get it: There was no way that bozo could pay for so much crap in one lifetime — and his kids can't handle the bills either.
American consumers have awakened, bolt upright, with belated sticker shock ("I bought what!? I spent how much!?"), from a shopping spree that's arguably lasted since the early 1970s. That's when spending started to outpace economic growth, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. Credit cards proliferated. Easy credit based on rising real-estate and stock prices fed the delusion that we could go on consuming more than we produce forever. And it just got giddier after 1997, when consumer spending bubbled up from 67 percent to more than 70 percent of gross domestic product (versus 55 to 65 percent in more sober economies). "People are using their homes almost as a third income," an executive for a major lender told me in 2005, and she thought that was just fine.
Then real estate — and every other market — went bust and American household wealth dropped $14 trillion overnight. One year after the collapse of Lehman Bros., the investment bank that exemplified Wall Street's infatuation with borrowing, we're all learning to pay our accumulated bills with what we can earn from our first and second incomes, both of which seem likely to vanish at any moment. (Full disclosure: I'm a journalist and my wife is a real-estate agent. At least we didn't invest in buggy whips.) When consumer confidence came creeping back in August, the stock market fluttered upward. But the rebound took confidence only to midrecession levels. "Instead of being suicidal, it's just depressed," says Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.
So the big question now is whether the American consumer, regarded as key to any recovery, is only temporarily missing in action. Or are we seeing a permanent shift in attitudes toward what we used to call "retail therapy"? Making it permanent could be a good thing for many badly strapped households — financially first of all, but also culturally, as people rediscover life beyond the shopping mall. But in an economy so dependent on consumer spending, that would be bad news for the recovery.
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