All Blog Posts from Econwatch

This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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I should have expected the massive stock market rally - after all, at the end of March, I had heard that the guy who I consider one of the great "contra-indicators" (let's call him "Mr. Wrong") was predicting a steep decline to Dow 5000. Before you brush aside that notion as nonsense, remember that at that time, we were still worried about the implosion of the financial system.

But when I heard that Mr. Wrong was predicting massive riots in the streets and falling equity prices, I forced myself to consider the bull case for stocks. I had made the mistake of betting against massive liquidity once before - in 2002-03, I remained underweight in risk assets for too long and paid the price. I'm pretty sure that Mr. Wrong is making the same mistake and here's why: there still remains deep pessimism over the recovery and the stock market.

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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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Full disclosure: I'm genetically programmed to be a bear. My father, who traded for three decades on the floor of the American Stock Exchange, passed this gene on to me, along with the ability to put a soccer ball in the back of a net.


My natural inclination to distrust markets has served me well - it's prevented me from jumping on bull market bandwagons and becoming ensnared in a bear trap. But I've also missed some golden opportunities. But that's the deal - you can't have it both ways and for over two decades, I've found that losing less on the downside is better for me than making it big on the upside.

But I started to sense that the tide was turning during the spring. In fact, right after I wrote about soaring stock prices, I had a sober conversation with inner-bear. The discussion led to this video.

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