All Blog Posts from Econwatch

This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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I always get nervous when three or more people who don't study the economy or financial markets say exactly the same thing. This past weekend, it was a teacher, a lawyer and a doctor, all of whom proclaimed: "we're definitely headed for a double-dip recession!"


Every time someone says "double dip" I can't help think of a soft serve ice cream cone plunging into that delicious chocolate coating not once, but twice. That said, are fears of a double dip warranted?

One would have to be brain-dead to not consider the possibility of something bad - really bad, derailing the progress that has occurred since the beginning of this fiasco. Here's a just a few ideas to get you started: a commercial real estate collapse could make the residential market look like a walk in the park; unemployment could get much worse; a large multi-national bank bites the bullet; the Fed blows it; and the weekend favorite, this whole recovery is in your head.

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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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When is a loss good news? When you're General Motors and the loss could have been worse. Call me a cheerleader or a concerned citizen, but I have been rooting for GM throughout the financial crisis.


This morning, GM announced that it lost $1.2 billion in Q3. Yes, we'd like to see profits, but the news is movement in the right direction. Pessimists might note that it's a lot easier to get back on track when you wipe out a boatload of your outstanding debt and the taxpayer pumps billions of dollars into the endeavor. True enough, but GM had some good news on that front too - the company said that intends to re-pay the $6.7 billion US taxpayer loan by the middle of 2011. Here again, the more cynical will remind you that those loans represent something like 13% of the $52 billion of the government's infusion over the past year, still, I'd prefer to get the money back, wouldn't you?

What's next for GM? During the earnings call, CEO Fritz Henderson said that the company is seeing signs of "stability" in the in the auto sector and that vehicle sales should increase from about 10.7 million vehicles annually today to 11-12 million next year. The company has also seen some success in China and is trying to address problems in Europe, especially after backtracking on the sale of Opel.

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This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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10.2% — that's the most important number from the October Employment Report. For the first time since 1983, the over 1 out of every 10 American is out of work. How's that for starting your Friday with some sobering news?


The 190,000 jobs lost in October means that since the start of the recession in December, 2007, 8.2 million people have lost their jobs and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3%. The numbers in and of themselves would by bad enough, but they don't accurately reflect just how hard it is to find a job. For that, you need to drill down to the U-6 measure of employment, or as my friend the economist likes to say, "the true pain threshold." U-6 starts with the total number of unemployed and adds part time employees and those who are "marginally attached," which means all of those folks people who took crappy jobs that are beneath their skill levels. The U-6 was 17.5% last month.

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Today's depressed economy is leading more parents to modeling and talent agencies – not for themselves, but for their kids, in the hopes that their looks can bring in some needed extra cash. Child models make as much as $125 an hour.

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If you're looking for good news on unemployment, Moodys.com chief economist Mark Zandi doesn't have it.

Zandi told CBS' "The Early Show" Monday that the nation's near 10 percent unemployment rate will "stay there through this time next year."

However, the economist said, "we're heading in the right direction."

Zandi's comments come on the heels of two drastically different business reports.

Sunday, major lender CIT Group filed for bankruptcy, while Ford Motor Company Monday announced it earned a $1 billion profit in the third quarter.

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The economy may be growing again, but that's little comfort to Americans struggling to find jobs.

But as the unemployment rate inches steadily toward 10 percent, CBS MoneyWatch editor-at-large Jill Schlesinger says there are still sectors hiring.

The health care industry has added 560,000 jobs and remains a huge part of the U.S. economy. And the government claims to have created or saved 380,000 jobs in education through stimulus efforts.

The government itself is hiring, though some of those jobs – like census workers – are temporary.

And the technology sector is experiencing "very good growth," Schlesinger told "Early Show" co-anchor Harry Smith Thursday.

Industries hardest hit by job losses come as no surprise – construction, manufacturing, restaurants and retail continue to struggle.

As far as geography, Schlesinger says heartland states like Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota have been largely spared the full force of the recession, boasting unemployment rates under 5 percent.

Worst areas for job seekers? Michigan, Nevada, Rhode Island and big housing boom states like California.

With the release of some hard data, the effects of the first wave of President Obama’s stimulus program are now observable. Businesses receiving federal contracts participating in the program reported creating or saving more than 30,383 jobs in the first months of the program, based on less than $16 billion in federal contracts.

ProPublica has done some basic math on the program so far, and calculated scenarios that shed light on the value proposition as outlined by the Obama administration. Following is the ProPublica analysis by Christopher Flavelle:

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This post by John Keefe originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

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The Dow at 10,000. Does it mean anything? It may be just fodder for financial writers: a Google search that also specifies September 2009 returns five million results. But it could be that the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10,000 coincides with some extreme in valuation, and is a "destination" for the market. Otherwise, it's just a number, like one of those small, frequent mile markers that tick by on the interstate.

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When the recent US Census Bureau report "Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008" was released, it was depressing. Real median household income fell 3.6% percent between 2007 and 2008, from $52,163 to $50,303. It's not just last year that's the problem: median income has stagnated over the past decade. In 1998, median income was $51,295, adjusted for inflation. And if you're a worker of a certain age, say my age, you may have fared even worse in this recession. Workers aged 45-54 saw household income plunge $7,700 to $64,439 from 2000-2008.

With this said, you may be surprised about what I'm about to say: if you are a valuable employee, now may be a good time to start talking about compensation. Blasphemy! Who would dare to broach the subject of a raise during "the worst recession since..."? Um, that would be me with Harry Smith this morning on The Early Show.

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The recession has thrown a growing number of two-career couples a new challenge in their marriage – geography.

With the economy sagging, job hunts are increasingly taking laid-off workers to different cities from their already employed spouses, according to a Wall Street Journal report Tuesday.

The Journal cites a recent survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas that found 18.2 percent of job hunters relocated for their new jobs in the second quarter of this year – a big jump from 11.4 percent a year ago.

Couple that with Labor Department statistics showing more than half of the country's marriages consisted of two working spouses, and it's easy to see how job hunts present added complications for families with established roots in a given locale.

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