"The big shocker is 'Dreamgirls' not nominated for best picture," he told The Early Show co-anchor Julie Chen. "It was considered not only a sure nominee but also a frontrunner to win. That's a big surprise."
Nevertheless, "Dreamgirls" was nominated in eight other categories and received more nominations than any of film this year, something that Cagle said doesn't really add up.
"It's really strange — also strange that ("Dreamgirls" director) Bill Condon not nominated for best picture. If it's not nominated, they'll at least throw a bone to the picture. I think Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson will take the prize for that movie."
Hudson and Murphy both received nominations for best supporting actor and actress respectively.
"I think they stand a good chance of ultimately taking home the gold," he said. "It really a shocker. That's what everybody will be talking about in Hollywood this morning."
Cagle said the "Dreamgirls" spot in the best picture nominations went to "Letters from Iwo Jima," because the other nominees — "Babel," "The Departed," "Little Miss Sunshine," and "The Queen" — are not surprises.
He said he thought "Clint Eastwood would be nominated for best director but not best picture."
Cagle said there were no earth-shattering surprises in the best actor category except Leonardo DiCaprio, who was nominated for "The Blood Diamond" rather than for "The Departed," as many predicted.
Some of the most powerful actresses in Hollywood such as Judi Dench and Meryl Streep were nominated for best actress, but Cagle predicts that the prize will go to Helen Mirren for "The Queen."
"The favorite right now is Helen Mirren because she's won so many critics' awards," he said. "It's amazing that many actresses over 40 are nominated."