One big reason is how voters feel the candidates are handling the financial crisis. They give Obama a 44 percent approval rating compared to 35 for McCain, and it's coupled with a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows Obama out in front in three critical swing states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Election Day is still more than a month off and these numbers will no doubt change, but Americans will still be hurting. Our 401ks have been shrinking and we're worried. The economy is clearly the number one issue, while national security and Iraq – McCain's strengths – are practically off the radar.
Each candidate has a month to convince voters he has the best financial fix. Whoever can do that will likely be on top November 4.