GERSON: ...even on the issues that relate to the budget, there's -- you know, the Democrats will focus on the microissues, the effect of this cut on this group. Ryan and Romney will focus on the macro issue, which is we're headed towards Greece. That is a real issue.
FRUM: We're not on the euro. We're not heading towards Greece.
GERSON: We are.
SHRUM: We're not heading towards Greece. That's completely ridiculous. The fact of the matter is, Newt Gingrich who used the word lie, and lied earlier in this segment when he said that unemployment in Greece was at 54 percent for young people, because they're spending too much. It's 54 percent for young people because of austerity.
And Michael, you might not want to talk about the -- not want to talk about these micro points, but in the Ryan budget, which doesn't balance the budget until 2040, Mitt Romney would pay an effective tax rate of 1 percent, while seniors would pay $6,000 more for Medicare.
Yeah, by the way, they could keep Medicare, but the cost of Medicare would go up and they would have to make up the difference. Maybe what I should have said was never pick a man with this kind of plan. This kind of plan is going to be poison politically in this election.
CORDES: Roger, do you agree with that?
SIMON: Just in case people are in a state of despair -- let me make one prediction, this campaign will not be about wonkiness. It will not be about micro issues. Wonkiness does not play with the American people. I didn't know Jack Kemp as well as Michael, but I covered his presidential campaign. I covered his vice presidential campaign. He was a wonderful guy when he talked about football, and then he started talking about taking America to the gold standard. And you would see people in the audience saying, "what the heck is he talking about" This campaign will be about the economy, but it will be about which team do I really trust? Which team do I really think understands a person like me? Which team cares about a person like me? And, yes, I'll say it-- it will be about likability, because no matter what else you say, go back through history, the more likable candidate almost always wins. And this is why Mitt Romney had to take a risk. He wasn't that likable.
CORDES: And so, John, let me just bring you in before we have to go to break, so which team ends up being more likable? Now we know the field is set.
DICKERSON: Well, it depends. If this becomes a committee mark- up, in which every tiny detail of Paul Ryan's belief is discussed, that's a big problem for the reasons people have mentioned. Also, because Ryan is the better spokesman than the guy at the top of the ticket, and even if Ryan is a happy warrior, that doesn't really matter unless Mitt Romney can be the happy warrior on those specifics.
The Romney campaign is betting in large part this election will be a referendum, but that there's a second piece, a smaller piece, but a second piece, which is that people have to like the ticket, and Paul Ryan helps with that. And, also, they have to have some kind of plan. The Romney campaign has to hope that people just like the idea of a plan more than digging into every tiny little detail of it. And so that's how it will come to in the end.
CORDES: Well, and I'm sure the Obama campaign is not going to let people forget about the tiny details. All right, we have to take a quick break. When we come back I want to talk about what this means for the Obama campaign. Do they now have to get more specific? We'll be right back in one minute with more from our panel. Stick around.
CORDES: Bob Shrum, I want to start with you. Which battleground states does Paul Ryan help Mitt Romney with the most? For example, can he help him with his own home state, Wisconsin.
SHRUM: I think he does help in Wisconsin. I still think there's a good chance the president will carry it, but he has good play there. People, obviously, know him there. And I think there will be home state pride.
I think he actually does hurt in Florida. I think he does hurt in Pennsylvania. I think conceivably he does hurt in Ohio. Because look, at the end of the day, you can't have it both ways. You can't say, "we want to have a debate about big, substantive issues -- and by the way we don't want to discuss the details" because the details are where you get to those big, substantive issues.
I think the Obama campaign, after Romney put Ryan on the ticket, is going to put Ryan on television for tens of thousands of rating points and we're going to hear about a whole set of these provisions that he's proposed, whether or not it's in terms of the economy, in terms of immigration, or in terms of women's health. So I think that this is not a pick that's guaranteed to do very well in the -- in these battleground states. I agree with Roger -- this was a base pick. There was a lot of dissatisfaction with Romney. the grumbling was beginning in the Republican Party. Usually the Democrats are the ones on the sidelines wringing their hands. So he's united the party, much, by the way, as McCain did with the Palin pick, but we have to see what the long-term impact of it is.
CORDES: You know, Michael, Bob mentioned women's health. We had a series of polls here at CBS News recently looking at battle ground states. And in those states Mitt Romney is trailing, often by double digits, among women. What does this pick mean for those numbers when you look at Paul Ryan's record on issues like abortion, where he has came out in favor of anti-abortion rights. Can they make up any round with women?
GERSON: Well, he's a strong Catholic. He brings a certain perspective to this issue. I don't think that's necessarily a drawback. He's won in a pretty evenly divided district among Democrats and Republicans in a way that Kemp did in Buffalo, by having a winning personality, by leading with conviction, not calculation. I think some of that will carry here. I mean, he is-- you know, he's a very likable conviction politician.
The question is whether you think that's toxic in American politics. In fact, i don't think it is toxic.
MARCUS: I don't think that's toxic in American politics, and I think any pick for a vice presidential candidate was going to have the same view on abortion as the majority of the Republican Party. And I think that is what it is.
I have to disagree with the notion that Romney needed to make a base pick. I don't think so.
MARCUS: I think the base is so motivated to get rid of Barack Obama and Obamacare and everything else that they were going to turn out. And they might be holding their noses, but they were going to go for Romney. And that's where I think maybe Romney needed to shake things up with the vice presidential candidate, but I'm not sure this way. If the Bain Capital attacks, if the paying little in taxes attack were taking a toll, why do you pick a guy whose tax plan is actually nicer to rich people than Mitt Romney's?
I mean, he -- his original tax plan had zero -- zero taxes on investment income, capital gains and dividends.
CORDES: David, isn't that going to be a huge messaging problem? We're in a weak economy, and Paul Ryan wants to slash taxes for the wealthy, even more than Mitt Romney?
FRUM: Look, it wouldn't be a problem if there were a convincing and credible explanation of how lowering these taxes would translate into economic growth and jobs. That's the issue, economic growth and jobs.
CORDES: Right. And we don't have a lot of proof that that's happened.
FRUM: What we've got -- what we've got here is a fiscal message. This is going to be an election about the government's finances in a year when people want the election to be about their finances.
It's -- the tragedy of this -- because the president does not deserve reelection on his economic record -- is Republicans are cooperating with the president in changing the subject. They are talking about what Republicans want, which is the future of the American welfare state, a very important question on which the Republicans are right, but this is not the time. The time now is to talk about this economic emergency, and that -- about household debt, about job creation. That's where Republicans needed to be.
CORDES: Roger, I have 20 seconds. I'm going to give you the last word.
Well, the fact is we've been in economic downturn since the day Barack Obama has been elected, was elected. And he's won in all the polls so far. The question is, if it's really about the economic turmoil in America, why isn't Mitt Romney doing better?
And I doubt that Paul Ryan is going to give him any one of the three states he needs, which is Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
CORDES: Great. Thank you so much to our entire panel. We'll be back in a minute.
CORDES: We'll all get to know more about Paul Ryan in the coming days, but when Bob interviewed him back in May, when it was beginning to look like Mitt Romney would get the Republican nomination, Ryan gave us a little insight into how he thought Romney should react to Democratic attacks. That's our "Face the Nation" flashback.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SCHIEFFER: If Mitt Romney gets the nomination, now he's out there, doesn't he become the face of what President Obama is trying to say? He said, look, this guy made $20 million last year and he's paying less than 15 percent of that in taxes; you're having to pay more taxes than he is, and that's unfair, and we ought to do something about it?
REP. PAUL RYAN, R-WIS., VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So I think -- I think that's clearly going to be the strategy, if that's the nominee we have. But what is important for Mitt Romney to do is take the moral high ground on these issues, take on the beauty of our free enterprise system and defend it fully, defend it confidently, and go to the American people not with a -- an envy and division and resentment strategy, which is really what the president is doing, and go with a unity strategy, one that simply appeals to people based our founding principles and how we're going to get this country together and how we're going to take on these challenges that the president has ducked, which, as a result, has made it so much worse.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CORDES: Paul Ryan's take on what the Republican strategy should be before he knew he would be Mitt Romney's running mate, today's "Face the Nation" flashback. We'll be right back.
CORDES: Be sure to tune in tonight to "60 Minutes" for the first joint interview with Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, conducted by our own Bob Schieffer. For now, I'm Nancy Cordes. Thanks for watching. Have a great day.
SOURCE: CQ TRANSCRIPTS