Eyeing Senate control, outside groups launch final ad avalanche

After a summer spent chasing voters with millions of dollars in television ads, some of the biggest spenders in politics have settled on eight Senate races for a final flurry before Election Day.

Seven high-profile national political groups have asked television stations to set aside more than $80 million in airtime to shape Senate races between now and Nov. 4. Operatives on both sides say that number could grow.

At the moment, the spending favors Democrats by about $10 million. The party is fighting to keep control of the Senate for the final two years of President Obama's time in office, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Senate Majority PAC placed ad buys months ago, fueled by donors who want to see Nevada Democratic Sen. Harry Reid remain majority leader.

The final rush of television ad spending will come on top of the tens of millions of dollars the candidates themselves, along with race-specific super PACs and labor unions, also have at the ready to spend in the final weeks of the campaign.

But the choice of these eight states suggests donors and the people who court them believe this is where Republicans have the best chance to pick up the net total of six seats they need to win control of the Senate.

The Associated Press reviewed the state-by-state advertising buys of 10 of the best known and most feared outside groups. In all, they'll spend about $200 million this year through Election Day, Nov. 4.

With a little over a month to go, three of the groups are stopping spending on Senate ads. The remaining organizations plan to spend $83 million, with $81.5 million coming in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina and New Hampshire.

Democratic incumbents in six of those states are in tight races, and Democrats are trying to keep a seat in the other two.

"More things can go wrong for the Democrats than can go wrong for Republicans," Democratic strategist James Carville said this week. "And that's never a kind of playing field that you want to enter a cycle like this."

Noticeably absent from the ad plans is Americans for Prosperity, one piece of the political operation of the conservative Koch brothers. The group spent more than $25 million on television ads in the eight states earlier this year but since has shifted its focus to getting out the vote. Because the group does not disclose its finances, it is impossible to know how much it plans to spend on that effort.

The Crossroads network backed by former George W. Bush strategist Karl Rove is the top GOP spender in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. At least $16.3 million in ad time is booked there, a figure that's expected to increase.

"This is the Senate race that will decide who controls the United States Senate: Barack Obama and Harry Reid or common-sense conservative Republicans," Republican Rep. Cory Gardner told supporters Thursday as he campaigned to oust Democratic Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado.

A look at where groups plan to empty their pockets during the next 5 1/2 weeks:

ALASKA: Republican-backing groups have reserved $4.5 million in airtime, led by $2.5 million from the Karl Rove-backed American Crossroads and its nonprofit arm, Crossroads GPS. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has booked $3.5 million in that state.

ARKANSAS: Republicans have booked $3.8 million in ads, trailing Democrats' $5 million in a state known for its cheap airtime. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has reserved $1.3 million and the DSCC has booked $2.7 million.

COLORADO: Leading committees from both parties have booked $13.1 million, and it's split about evenly. The biggest spenders so far - as in four other states - is the Crossroads network.

IOWA: Republican-leaning groups have booked $5.7 million in airtime, while Democrats have booked $8 million. Iowa is one of the few states where a Koch-backed group, Freedom Partners, is buying airtime. The group plans roughly $2 million in ads.

LOUISIANA: Republicans outpace Democrats by a more than 2-1 margin. Of the $9.2 million booked, $4.6 million of it is expected to come between the state's Nov. 4 primary and its Dec. 6 Election Day.

MICHIGAN: The state's Senate race is increasingly looking likely to stay in Democrats' hands and is drawing less cash. The DSCC has reserved $4.8 million in ad time to the NRSC's $1 million. Like all ad reservations, they can be canceled.

NORTH CAROLINA: Crossroads GPS has booked more than $5 million and accounts for the bulk of the GOP-backing $6.8 million in upcoming ads. Two Democratic-backing groups, the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC, have set aside $11.8 million.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Democrats account for the entire $4.4 million booked for the Senate race. Republican groups could add spending later.