Can Hillary Win?

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. gestures during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2006. regarding military readiness in Iraq. (AP Photo/Lauren Victoria Burke) AP Photo/Lauren Victoria Burke

Hillary Clinton said she would consider a White House run only after she won a second term in the Senate. Now, with an easy election victory behind her, CBS News correspondent Bianca Solorzano reports Clinton has started to ask top New York Democrats for support if she decides to run for president.

"It's not a slam dunk for her," political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said. "But she begins as a very formidable candidate who can raise the money, who has the national name recognition and contacts."

Of course, she's been in the White House before as first lady. And during her six year as senator, Clinton has proven to be a savvy political operative. She supported President Bush in the war in Iraq, but opposed all of the president's tax cuts.

Clinton has $10 million in her war chest and a formidable political adviser in her husband. But the former president's transgressions could hurt her as the Democrats choose their candidate.

"If they believe she's too polarizing a political figure, regarded as too liberal, carrying too much Clinton family baggage, that's going to hurt her within the Democratic Party and hurt her chances for the nomination," said Rothenberg.

While Clinton tops every national poll of likely 2008 Democratic presidential contenders, the New York senator is dogged by questions of "electability" – political code for whether she can win enough swing states to prevail in a general election.

It's a gauge typically applied to Democrats, as few question the crossover appeal of the GOP front-runner, Arizona Sen. John McCain. And for activists eager to recapture the White House after eight years of George W. Bush, electability remains a crucial yardstick by which Clinton, especially, seems to be measured.

Some Democrats still believe the odds are against her actually being elected president. Dick Harpootlian, a former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party not aligned with any presidential hopeful, is among the nay-sayers.

"She's a senator, she'd be the first woman running, and she's Hillary Clinton," he said. "All of that is almost insurmountable for a general election."

He added: "There are people who would write a check and die for her, but there are plenty of others who wouldn't vote for her if she promised to eliminate the income tax and give free ice cream to everyone. People have made up their minds about her, and that doesn't give her much room to maneuver."

Clinton has not yet declared she plans to seek the presidency, and aides say the question of whether she can win tops the list of considerations. She's also said she is eager to return to the Senate, where, come January, she'll be a member of the new Democratic majority.

"Hillary Clinton has a good sense of self," said Chris Lehane, a longtime Democratic strategist who worked in the White House for President Clinton. "I don't think she makes this race unless she thinks she has a pretty good chance of winning the whole thing."

Right now, Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner. Recent polls show her closest contender is Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Either would be an historic choice: she could be the first woman president, he could be the African American president.

  • Joel Roberts

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