Politics Today: One More Day to Rally Health Care Votes

Politics Today is CBSNews.com's inside look at the key stories driving the day in politics, written by CBS News Political Director Steve Chaggaris:

** Overcoming abortion and other issues...

** Balancing conflicting obligations in Afghanistan...

** The climate bill advances...

HEALTH CARE: President Obama is keeping a low profile today and has postponed until Saturday his high-profile visit to Capitol Hill to meet with House Democrats before their vote on health care reform. But just because the president isn't swinging by the Hill today doesn't mean the folks on there aren't busy, especially as House Democratic leaders continue working to rustle up the needed 218 votes for passage.

Washington Post's Shailagh Murray and Lori Montgomery, "House Democratic leaders were struggling Thursday to contain uprisings on the hot-button issues of abortion and immigration that have left them little margin for error as they attempt to push through a massive health-care reform bill this weekend.

"Although confident of victory, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and other Democratic leaders were working to limit defections to the roughly 25 Democrats viewed as 'hard no' votes. There will be 258 Democrats in the House by the time the vote takes place, but to secure the 218 votes needed for passage -- and with prospects dim for Republican converts -- Pelosi can afford to lose no more than 40 members of her caucus. President Obama had been slated to head to the Hill on Friday to push wavering Democrats to get behind the measure, but he called off the trip after Thursday's shooting rampage at Fort Hood, Tex."

New York Times' Carl Hulse and David M. Herszenhorn," Some Democrats from more conservative districts, like Representative Ike Skelton of Missouri, Representative Dan Boren of Oklahoma, Representative Jim Marshall of Georgia and Representative Bobby Bright of Alabama, made it clear they would oppose the measure…

"Several others, including Representative Jim Cooper of Tennessee and Representative Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania, remained undecided. Mr. Altmire, a centrist Democrat from a district west of Pittsburgh, said he had been courted heavily in recent days by members of the Democratic leadership and their emissaries seeking to nail down his vote.

"'They are trying to get you any way they can,' said Mr. Altmire, who also met for an hour on Thursday with conservative constituents who traveled to Washington to take part in the rally. 'I am doing the best I can against competing interests.'"

"Among Democratic leaders' biggest remaining challenges is satisfying anti-abortion Democrats concerned that the legislation would allow federal funding of abortion," add the Wall Street Journal's Naftali Bendavid and Janet Adamy. "They fear a government-run health-insurance plan -- commonly referred to as the public option -- would include abortion coverage, and that people who receive government subsidies could use the money to buy insurance that covers abortions.

"Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D., Ind.), who opposes abortion, has drafted a potential compromise. The provision would establish strict rules for insurance companies to separate public funds from individuals' premiums, so public money couldn't be used to fund abortions. And it would require that the public option be administered by a private contractor, whose responsibilities would include segregating and managing any money that went for abortions.

"The Ellsworth proposal is opposed by Rep. Bart Stupak of Michigan, a leader of the anti-abortion Democrats, who wants stronger language. But Democratic leaders are hopeful it can satisfy at least some of the roughly 40 Democrats concerned about the abortion issue."

"AARP, which represents seniors, and the American Medical Association, which represents doctors, made strategically timed endorsements Thursday of the House Democratic bill, prompting a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room Thursday by a pleased Obama," writes McClatchy Newspapers' David Lightman.

"AARP's backing, the president said, should help counter 'the same tired arguments to the contrary from the insurance companies and their lobbyists.' As for the AMA's endorsement, Obama said: 'They would not be supporting it if they really believed that it would lead to government bureaucrats making decisions that are best left to doctors.'

"Opposing the legislation, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has generated about 436,000 letters from businesses all over America to lawmakers since July. Last year, it made 40,000 calls total on every issue before Congress. In September, representatives of 3,159 business groups signed a letter to key members of Congress opposing a health care overhaul. Employers for a Health Economy, a coalition of a dozen business-oriented groups, Thursday began running an ad in newspapers titled 'The Worst Bill Ever.'"

"With a historic House vote on a $1-trillion healthcare bill barely 48 hours away, battle lines are hardening as lobbying groups for seniors and doctors endorse the legislation, while thousands of protesters swarmed Capitol Hill to oppose it," add the Los Angeles Times' Janet Hook and Noam N. Levey.

"'Kill the bill! Kill the bill!' chanted conservative and small-government advocates Thursday, some having traveled on short notice from as far as California and Texas to protest what they saw as tantamount to socialized medicine. 'No Marx. No Mao,' one protest sign read. 'No socialized anything,' read another...

"Some Republicans have tried to keep their distance from the tea party movement because of some divisive rhetoric -- such as protest signs seen Thursday linking President Obama and the healthcare bill to Nazi Germany. Nonetheless, dozens of House Republicans, including their top party leaders, embraced the cause by appearing on the steps of the Capitol to address the crowd."

On the Senate side, writes the Wall Street Journal's Naftali Bendavid, "Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu says she generally backs President Barack Obama's health-care overhaul efforts. But she'd like to see a few items in the bill before voting for it, including bigger federal Medicaid payments for her home state of Louisiana, extended health coverage for her pet cause of foster children, and help for teaching hospitals in her state.

"While pushing more spending in those areas, Ms. Landrieu also wants the plan to cut the overall amount the nation spends on health care.

"As Democratic leaders enter the intensive phase of their drive to pass health legislation, they must satisfy 60 Mary Landrieus in the Senate -- every Democrat and the two Democratic-friendly independents, each with individual priorities -- as they try to hold together a fragile coalition with no room for error. And that has only become more complicated as Democrats from conservative states puzzle over what to make of Republican victories Tuesday in governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey.

"While some of the senators' demands are philosophical, others flow more directly from home-state pressures. The health bill may be an ambitious, once-in-a-generation attempt to rewrite the social contract, but like any other sprawling piece of legislation, it is also a magnet for deal making and horse-trading."

Sunday's New York Times Magazine on "Making Health Care Better" by David Leonhardt:

PRESIDENT OBAMA TODAY: This afternoon, Mr. Obama visits Walter Reed Army Medical Center, a visit that was planned before the rampage at Fort Hood, the White House insists.

Later he'll meet with Bill Owens in the Oval Office, who won the highly-talked about congressional seat in New York's 23rd district. Owens will be sworn in on the House floor today.

This morning, behind closed doors, Mr. Obama will sign the Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009. According to the White House, "this legislation builds on Recovery Act provisions aimed at spurring new job creation by providing an additional tax cut for struggling businesses, offering up to twenty additional weeks of unemployment relief, and stabilizing the housing market with a one-time extension of the $8,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit."

NY Times' Jackie Calmes and David Stout have the details on the bill: "U.S. Readies Jobless Aid and Help on Homes"

AFGHANISTAN: "As President Obama struggles over a new military strategy for Afghanistan, his advisors are trying to satisfy sharply divergent demands: assuring Americans that any military buildup will be limited while convincing Pakistan and other wary allies that the U.S. presence is substantial and not about to end," write the Los Angeles Times' Greg Miller and Paul Richter.

"The difficulty in determining a strategy that can mollify both these conflicting constituencies helps to explain why the administration's months-long search for a new approach to Afghanistan remains unresolved.

"On the domestic front, Obama risks alienating a political base that has become increasingly impatient with the 8-year-old war. At the same time, the president faces potentially serious setbacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan if the heads of those governments -- not to mention the leaders of the Taliban insurgency -- see any indication of a wavering U.S. commitment. 'This is precisely what muddles their strategic discussion,' said Juan Zarate, who served as deputy national security advisor in the George W. Bush administration. 'They have to thread a needle here. [Obama] can't be seen domestically to be articulating a 20-year commitment to Afghanistan, while at the same time, he can't be signaling a quick exit to our allies and enemies on the ground and in the region.'

Pakistan is key to the debate because of concerns that its powerful intelligence service would ramp up support for Afghan Taliban militants as part of a hedge strategy aimed at preserving Pakistani influence next door in the event of a U.S. exit from the region.

Politics Daily's David Wood, "New Afghan War Headache: Not Enough Troops Available?": "Beneath Washington's political squabbling over a new war strategy for Afghanistan is a deeper concern, this one among the Pentagon's war planners: not enough troops to go around. It's easy to overlook in Washington, but the Army still has almost 100,000 soldiers deployed in Iraq, and it's becoming less clear when they're coming home. With the growing demands of the Afghanistan war and other global commitments, the Army currently has more soldiers deployed overseas than it had at the height of the Iraq 'surge' in 2007."

CLIMATE BILL: "Divisions among Democrats were on display Thursday in a Senate committee vote approving a climate-change bill," report the Wall Street Journal's Peter Wallsten and Siobhan Hughes.

"Sen. Max Baucus (D., Mont.) voted against his own party's climate-change bill, calling for a scaled-back measure that might win more bipartisan support. Mr. Baucus, a key player in the health-care overhaul debate, said the measure set too ambitious a target for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020, and hadn't done enough to protect farmers.

"Republicans boycotted the 11-1 vote in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. They said more study needed to be done on the potential harm to the economy from the measure's cap on emissions, and its requirement that businesses buy permits, which could be traded, to emit carbon dioxide and other gases.

"The tensions among Democrats point to the wider debate within the party about how aggressively to push the leading issues on President Barack Obama's agenda after Tuesday's election setbacks. Moderate Democrats worry about moving too fast for voters, while liberals say swift action on issues like climate change and health care will remotivate the party's base."

ELECTION 2009 AFTERMATH: "Southern Democrats who watched the trouncing of their party's gubernatorial nominee in Virginia this week are starting to worry that a rising anti-Democratic tide in the South may reverse their hard-fought gains from the last two national elections," writes the Associated Press' Ben Evans.

"'They say people won't walk a mile to vote for you but they'll walk 100 miles to vote against you,' said Rep. Parker Griffith, a freshman Democrat who won his Alabama seat with just 52 percent of the vote last year. 'Well, people walked 100 miles Tuesday.'

"If the Virginia race signals a growing movement against the party's agenda, Democrats know it will be particularly fierce below the Mason-Dixon line next year. Even the perception of such a trend is enough to seriously damage the party's ability to recruit top candidates in the region. On Capitol Hill, it could convince moderates to distance themselves from the party on key votes, such as health care…

"Democrats are particularly vulnerable in the South, where Republicans still dominate politically despite the recent Democratic gains. Nearly half of the 20 Democratic seats Republicans think they can win in 2010 are in the South, and a number of veteran House Democrats not on the GOP target list could quickly become vulnerable in a conservative wave."

In Virginia, writes Politico's Jonathan Martin, " Faced with the choice of running as an unapologetic Democrat in a state trending toward his party or keeping his distance from Washington in the fashion of a generation of Southern Democrats, Creigh Deeds tried to do both. The result: the worst drubbing a Virginia gubernatorial candidate has received since 1961.

"As Democrats try to glean lessons from Tuesday’s election losses, Deeds’s case offers a vivid example of the difficulties that their candidates from Republican-leaning or swing states will face heading into the midterm elections.

"The quandary is how to motivate the so-called surge voters who flocked to the polls, often for the first time, to elect President Barack Obama while also not angering the independent voters who are increasingly wary of the policies coming out of the capital and, according to exit polls, moved sharply to the GOP in both the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests."

The Executive Director of the Democratic Governors Association, Nathan Daschle, pens his party's lessons learned from Tuesday's results:

"They do not signal that a Republican 'comeback' is imminent. ... They do not indicate that President Obama has been politically weakened. ... They do not mean that Democrats are in trouble in 2010. ... Democrats still carry a burden of proof with independents and surge voters. ... While Republicans with no solutions will continue to use federal issues as red herrings in state races, we must show at the national level that we can govern. ... The Republican Party is in disarray and not remotely ready to lead. ...

"Tuesday night was the opening battle; now starts the war. We have 37 races next year, including contests in marquee states like California and Florida. Fortunately, Democrats are well-prepared for the fight to come. In part, this is because we used our resources effectively this year ... More importantly, however, we are prepared because we have placed Tuesday in the appropriate context; the results are instructive but not foreboding."

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