Politics Today: House Preps for Health Care Vote

Politics Today is CBSNews.com's inside look at the key stories driving the day in politics, written by CBS News Political Director Steve Chaggaris:

** Democrats scramble to get the votes for a Saturday health care vote...

** After the elections, Dems rethink their priorities...

** Gearing up for 2010 and 2012...

HEALTH CARE: "House Democratic leaders are pushing for a Saturday vote on their sweeping health-care bill, but they are struggling to win over shaky rank-and-file members who could hold up its passage," report the Wall Street Journal's Janet Adamy and Martin Vaughan.

"As of Wednesday, House leaders didn't appear to have secured the 218 votes they need to pass the bill. They were moving to quickly swear in two Democrats elected Tuesday, which would give the party 258 seats in the House and allow leaders to lose as many as 40 Democratic votes without losing their majority. No Republicans are expected to vote for the bill. ... House leaders spent Wednesday scrambling to secure votes from freshmen and lawmakers in swing districts. 'This is not a popular thing in many parts of the country,' said Rep. Zach Wamp (R., Tenn.)."

The Washington Post's Lori Montgomery adds, "Many Democrats said passing the measure has become even more crucial politically after Republicans won governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey this week. So Democratic whips worked their rank and file, while House leaders tried to secure a momentum-building endorsement from the AARP, the nation's largest association of people over 50. President Obama, meanwhile, laid plans to visit Capitol Hill on Thursday or Friday to address House Democrats in a final push for his signature domestic initiative."

The New York Times' Robert Pear and David M. Herszenhorn, "Haggling Over Abortion Deal in Health Bill": "The House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, a supporter of abortion rights, has little choice but to heed the concerns of members of her caucus who oppose abortion. As many as 40 House Democrats, a potentially decisive bloc, have threatened to oppose the bill without tighter restrictions on abortion...

"Some Democratic opponents of abortion, led by Representative Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, have said the bill should prohibit the use of federal money to provide abortions in the public insurance plan. ... Under the House bill, health plans are neither required nor forbidden to cover abortions. Under Mr. Ellsworth’s proposal, if the public plan decides to cover abortion, it would have to hire private contractors to handle money that might be used for that purpose. Supporters of abortion rights, like the Planned Parenthood Federation of America, said the proposed restrictions went too far. Laurie Rubiner, vice president of Planned Parenthood, said Mr. Ellsworth’s proposal would 'tip the balance away from women’s access to reproductive health care.'"

Meantime, The Hill's Jared Allen calls Saturday's vote a "defining moment" for Blue Dog Democrats.

"The number of Blue Dogs leaning toward or committed to “no” votes could be in the 30s, according to members, although Blue Dog leaders stress that they’ve done no whip count. ... Many Blue Dogs are expected to face the grimmest reelection prospects of any Democrats, and the upcoming healthcare vote is giving some significant pause."

As for the Senate, "Action is slower on the other side of the Capitol, where senators are awaiting an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office on legislation written by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and others. The timeline there appears likely to spill into next year," write the Associated Press' Erica Werner and Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar.

ELECTION 2009 AFTERMATH: Democratic leaders are using Tuesday as a reason to keep pushing their agenda, not pulling back, reports the New York Times' Carl Hulse. "Blaming election setbacks on a drop in voter enthusiasm, Congressional Democrats said Wednesday that losses in governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey — and a striking House win in New York — should give new urgency to their legislative agenda, including a sweeping health care overhaul.

"As they assessed the results, Democratic lawmakers and party strategists said their judgment was that voters remained very uneasy about the economy and did not see Democrats producing on the health, energy and national security changes they promised when voters swept them to power only a year ago.

"'Most of us ran on that,' said Representative Gerald E. Connolly, Democrat of Virginia and president of the party’s freshman class. 'We must deliver. I need to give Democrats something to be excited about.'"

One common theme from Tuesday's Democratic losses? Moderate Dems are spooked.

McClatchy Newspapers' David Lightman, "Already-skittish moderate Democrats in Congress got fresh reasons Wednesday to worry about their votes on economic and health care legislation from the election results in Virginia and New Jersey.

"Democrats from the left, right and center saw a warning in Tuesday's results, which saw independents — who'd backed Democrats in the 2006 congressional elections and President Barack Obama last year — switch their votes to help elect Republican governors in both states.

"'The House leadership needs to pay attention to what happened in Virginia,' said Rep. Gene Taylor, D-Miss., one of 52 Blue Dog conservative Democrats in the House of Representatives."

WSJ's Peter Wallsten and Jonathan Weisman, "'I do consider Virginia a bellwether state,' said Rep. Gene Taylor of Mississippi, a conservative Democrat. 'I would encourage the leadership to get back to the center.'"

The Los Angeles Times' James Oliphant, Peter Nicholas and Christi Parsons, "'There are going to be a lot more tensions between the White House and Congress,' predicted Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), a member of the Blue Dog Coalition of fiscally conservative Democrats. 'They've been under the surface so far -- and they're going to come out in the open.' ... 'lesser mortals need to be worried about their independent voters,' Cooper said, 'because they have shifted strongly against Democrats in recent months. Independent voters tend to look at the issue, not the party, and they don't like a lot of what Congress has done.'

"Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said that Democrats such as Cooper had reason to be nervous. 'Republicans won independents by 2 to 1. It was overwhelming. It was breathtaking,' Ayres said. 'That is a huge shift since the last two elections in a very short amount of time.'

"Ayres said that his polling data indicate a clear shift in the independent vote starting in April. He said that 'spending and debt' are the reasons – 'starting with the bailouts, followed up with the stimulus package, the budget with its $1-trillion deficit, healthcare with another trillion.'"

The Washington Post's Michael D. Shear and Paul Kane, "'The question is, do people think we're tending to the things they care about?' said Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.) as he left a meeting of Senate leaders. He said there was palpable concern among his colleagues Wednesday that the main agenda items Democrats are pursuing -- health care and climate change -- resonate very little with voters focused on finding or keeping jobs.

"'Don't think people in my state are going to stand up and start cheering about Copenhagen,' Rockefeller said, referring to the European city that will host a summit on global warming next month. Critics of the climate-change legislation before Congress say it would be a job-killer in states dependent on manufacturing and natural resources."

What about the GOP? There's no question they're re-energized but they still have major issues to deal with as a party.

"[P]itched battles between moderates and conservatives -- and between the Washington establishment and the conservative grass roots -- are underway from Florida to Illinois to California," write the Washington Post's Philip Rucker and Perry Bacon Jr. "Conservative activists, emboldened after forcing out the moderate Republican nominee in a New York congressional race, said they will fan out nationwide and challenge Republican candidates whom they deem too moderate or insufficiently principled. ...

"The party's fortunes in next year's midterm elections may rest in its ability to harness a populist wave of voter discontent with Washington and government spending. But the surprising Democratic victory in the New York congressional election -- despite the intervention of conservative activists -- for a seat the GOP held for more than a century was sobering evidence that rallying behind conservative candidates may not be the answer.

"In Washington, some party leaders worry that viable moderate candidates could be damaged if they bow to conservative pressures, particularly in Senate races in California, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky and New Hampshire. Sen. John Cornyn (Tex.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, cautioned that hotly contested primaries could leave eventual nominees 'broke and bloody.'"

The New York Times' Adam Nagourney adds, "'When our party is united, whether you run in a Northern state or a Southern state, our party can win,' said the House Republican whip, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia. 'But when you are divided, you can lose a seat that has been in the Republican column for quite a long time.'"

2010 RACES: February 2, 2010. The midterm elections' first primary contest is on that date in Illinois and voters will be choosing their candidates for governor and the U.S. Senate, among other seats.

Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican running for the U.S. Senate seat there, reacted to Tuesday's election results by almost immediately reaching out to conservative Sarah Palin, reports the Associated Press' Deanna Bellandi.

"Kirk has sought a few kind words from Sarah Palin to help quiet the sharp criticism he faces from more conservative Republicans in Illinois.

"A memo from Kirk to a Palin friend and adviser asks the former vice presidential nominee to say something 'quick and decisive' about him when she's in Chicago later this month.

"It even offers a suggestion: 'Voters in Illinois have a key opportunity to take Barack Obama's Senate seat. Congressman Kirk is the lead candidate to do that.'"

In Democratic California, moderate Republican Carly Fiorina announced her bid for the U.S. Senate Wednesday.

"Fiorina, a former Hewlett-Packard chief executive, announced her bid to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer at a green technology firm in Orange County, promising to pound on what she said was the California junior senator's record on issues at the top of the political agenda: jobs, the economy and the deficit," reports the San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci. "Fiorina, a breast cancer survivor who appeared at Wednesday's announcement without a wig and in a new short, graying hairstyle, issued a bold and even more personal challenge - telling supporters, 'After chemotherapy, Barbara Boxer just isn't that scary anymore.'"

Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence points out that Fiorina is running "against conservative state assemblyman Chuck DeVore, an Orange County resident who served in the Reagan Defense Department and is another DeMint pick. Fiorina is a moderate who, unlike every Republican in Congress except three senators, supported President Obama's stimulus plan. She advised GOP nominee John McCain last year and put him in a tough spot by raising the issue of why some insurance plans cover Viagra but not birth control (he had twice voted against bills to require such coverage). McCain and other leading GOP senators will be raising money for Fiorina this month at an event in Washington; some have said she'd be a stronger challenger to liberal veteran Sen. Barbara Boxer."

2012 PRESIDENTIAL: USA Today's Susan Page, "Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee dismisses talk of a Republican front-runner for the 2012 presidential race as meaningless. 'It's like speculating who's going to be the best actor next year when we don't even know what the movies are,' he says.

"Not that he's sorry it seems to be him, at least at the moment.

"A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Saturday and Sunday puts the preacher-turned-politician, who is also a host of a weekend talk show on Fox News Channel, at the top of a list of prospective GOP contenders. ...

"He says it's too early for polls to mean much but calls his standing 'flattering.'

"The 2012 election won't be easy for the GOP, he says. Since the late 19th century, he notes, only once has a political party failed to hold the White House for at least eight years at a stretch."

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE: Associated Press' Lisa Leff and David Crary, " Stunned and angry, national gay rights leaders Wednesday blamed scare-mongering ads — and President Barack Obama's lack of engagement — for a bitter election setback in Maine that could alter the dynamics for both sides in the gay-marriage debate.

"Conservatives, in contrast, celebrated Maine voters' rejection of a law that would have allowed gay couples to wed, depicting it as a warning shot that should deter politicians in other states from pushing for same-sex marriage. ...

"Gay activists were frustrated that Obama, who insists he staunchly supports their overall civil rights agenda, didn't speak out forcefully in defense of Maine's marriage law before Tuesday's referendum."

"State legislatures had been viewed as new allies in the fight for same-sex marriage after lawmakers in Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire approved such bills this year," adds the New York Times' Abby Goodnough. "But now, with Maine voters dealing a rebuke to their Legislature, it is far from clear whether elected officials — including the president — will risk political capital on gay rights.

"Tuesday’s defeat is also likely to further splinter a movement that has been debating the best tactics for success. Some prominent gay politicians last month skipped a gay rights march in Washington, questioning its purpose, which emboldened some of the younger advocates at the march to call for a new generation of leaders."

CLIMATE BILL: The Washington Post's David A. Farenthold, " Even before a Senate committee could begin marking up the 'Kerry-Boxer' climate bill, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) announced Wednesday a separate track of negotiations over climate policy that makes his original bill look somewhat irrelevant.

"Kerry said he, Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) would work with business groups and the White House and seek a compromise that could get 60 votes in the Senate.

"The three said these negotiations would be separate from the work that Senate committees are doing on climate legislation -- including the markup that the Environment and Public Works Committee was supposed to begin Tuesday."

PRESIDENT OBAMA TODAY: Per a White House press release: "In the morning, the President will deliver opening remarks and participate in an interactive discussion with tribal leaders at the White House Tribal Nations Conference at the Department of the Interior. He will also deliver closing remarks in the afternoon.

"As part of President Obama’s sustained outreach to the American people, this conference will provide leaders from the 564 federally recognized tribes the opportunity to interact directly with the President and representatives from the highest levels of his Administration. Each federally recognized tribe has been invited to send one representative to the conference. ...

"The President will receive the Presidential Daily Briefing and meet with Senior Advisors in the Oval office. ... Later, the President and the Vice President will have lunch in the Private Dining Room. ...

"In the afternoon, the President will have separate meetings with Treasury Secretary Geithner, Secretary of State Clinton, and representatives of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus; Congressman Xavier Becerra, Congressman Charlie Gonzalez, Congresswoman Lucille Roybal-Allard and Congresswoman Nydia Velazquez ... [and] President Ian Khama of Botswana in the Oval Office."

ALSO:

Washington Post's Keith B. Richburg, "Obama half brother steps into spotlight to tell his own story"

The Sunday New York Times Magazine's Michael Sokolove profiles former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Tex., "Dick Armey Is Back on the Attack"