Starting Gate: Hope Or Irrational Exuberance?
Barack Obama opened his campaign with a message of “hope” and “change” and he’s closing it the same way. What’s changed from here to there is not what he’s pitching but the circumstances in which he’s selling it.
Two years ago, Obama opened his argument largely based on his initial opposition to the war in Iraq, targeting a Democratic Party whose opposition to that war had grown exponentially since Howard Dean used it to propel his campaign in 2004. Now, he’s closing it amidst an economic crisis and signs of a deep and lasting economic recession. In both cases, public sentiment has been strongly on his side, but is it real “change” or a case of what Alan Greenspan once called “irrational exuberance?”
Obama and his team have put together an outstanding campaign by any measure and a large part of that has been their attention paid to issues and details. They’ve put together a large-ranging agenda and stuck with it throughout the primaries and general election campaign. The candidate known for his high-flying rhetoric has just as often sounded like a policy wonk at times, combining minute details with his overarching theme.
The focus on the message (amplified by unprecedented media coverage and campaign spending), has put Obama well within reach of the White House. Even as there is some evidence that the race is getting closer heading into the final weekend, even normally pessimistic Democrats are finding it hard not to see the glass half full, if not spilling over.
With the economy overshadowing every other issue, Obama used his 30-minute infomercial last night to focus solely on that. The well-produced piece of political theatre was clearly aimed at connecting Obama to the concerns of everyday Americans struggling with their jobs, health care, retirement and future. For every case, Obama had a fix, some policy point or position that solves the problems voters face.
But, as CBS News’ Wyatt Andrews noted in a Reality Check following last night’s ad, Obama’s plans run up against reality.
“If he closes every loophole as promised, saves every dime from Iraq, raises taxes on the rich and trims the federal budget as he's promised to do ‘line by line,’” Andrews writes, “he still doesn't pay for his list. If he's elected, the first fact hitting his desk will be the figure projecting how much less of a budget he has to work with - thanks to the recession. He gave us a very compelling vision with his ad buy tonight. What he did not give us was any hint of the cold reality he's facing or a sense of how he might prioritize his promises if voters trust him with the White House.”
That observation amplifies the common gap between campaign promises and the hard choices that must be made after the election pomp and circumstances fade. Obama has promised a lot during this campaign, not the least of which is to “change” the country – and the world – in dramatic ways. It’s a message tailor-made for this electorate after six years of war and in the midst of an economic turndown. And voters have just a few more days to decide it what Obama is offering is change they can believe in or a case of irrational exuberance.
Around The Track
A new round of polls from Time and CNN shows Obama with the lead in Colorado (53 percent to 45 percent), Florida (52 percent to 47 percent) and Virginia (53 percent to 44 percent) and McCain up in Georgia (53 percent to 47 percent) and Missouri (50 percent to 48 percent).
CBS News’ Maria Gavrilovic gives an on-scene view of the Obama rally that became part of last night’s 30-minute ad.
Former President Bill Clinton made his first appearance with Obama in Orlando, Florida last night. “Folks, we can't fool with this," Clinton said. "Our country is hanging in the balance. And we have so much promise and so much peril. This man should be our president."
Make sure to grab the election results widgets from CBSNews.com to put on your blog or social networking pages, giving you real-time updates on the Electoral College count and a state-by-state look at election night as is happens.
Two years ago, Obama opened his argument largely based on his initial opposition to the war in Iraq, targeting a Democratic Party whose opposition to that war had grown exponentially since Howard Dean used it to propel his campaign in 2004. Now, he’s closing it amidst an economic crisis and signs of a deep and lasting economic recession. In both cases, public sentiment has been strongly on his side, but is it real “change” or a case of what Alan Greenspan once called “irrational exuberance?”
Obama and his team have put together an outstanding campaign by any measure and a large part of that has been their attention paid to issues and details. They’ve put together a large-ranging agenda and stuck with it throughout the primaries and general election campaign. The candidate known for his high-flying rhetoric has just as often sounded like a policy wonk at times, combining minute details with his overarching theme.
The focus on the message (amplified by unprecedented media coverage and campaign spending), has put Obama well within reach of the White House. Even as there is some evidence that the race is getting closer heading into the final weekend, even normally pessimistic Democrats are finding it hard not to see the glass half full, if not spilling over.
With the economy overshadowing every other issue, Obama used his 30-minute infomercial last night to focus solely on that. The well-produced piece of political theatre was clearly aimed at connecting Obama to the concerns of everyday Americans struggling with their jobs, health care, retirement and future. For every case, Obama had a fix, some policy point or position that solves the problems voters face.
But, as CBS News’ Wyatt Andrews noted in a Reality Check following last night’s ad, Obama’s plans run up against reality.
“If he closes every loophole as promised, saves every dime from Iraq, raises taxes on the rich and trims the federal budget as he's promised to do ‘line by line,’” Andrews writes, “he still doesn't pay for his list. If he's elected, the first fact hitting his desk will be the figure projecting how much less of a budget he has to work with - thanks to the recession. He gave us a very compelling vision with his ad buy tonight. What he did not give us was any hint of the cold reality he's facing or a sense of how he might prioritize his promises if voters trust him with the White House.”
That observation amplifies the common gap between campaign promises and the hard choices that must be made after the election pomp and circumstances fade. Obama has promised a lot during this campaign, not the least of which is to “change” the country – and the world – in dramatic ways. It’s a message tailor-made for this electorate after six years of war and in the midst of an economic turndown. And voters have just a few more days to decide it what Obama is offering is change they can believe in or a case of irrational exuberance.
Around The Track
The facts you mental midgets fail to comprehend is we don''t expect miracles from Mr Obama, We want someone that will truely work to return the American Dream to the Working Class of America. That means first he has fix everthing the Republican party has screwed up......
If one mentions reality--it''s seen as partisan warfare.
Reality is a valid when talking about Obama''s plan, but doesn''t apply to McCain?
I''ve yet to hear a "reality" criticism of McCain continuing the Iraq War, beyond two years--he never has to answer that call. McCain doesn%u2019t have to explain how he creates that 10 billion dollar a month outflow. Its interesting how when one comes up with a domestic agenda to spend money, money is an issue.
Damage to everyone%u2019s 401K plan isn%u2019t reality but just a consequence of the market.
Likewise, reality doesn%u2019t factor into criticism for either McCain%u2019s health care or social security plan.
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Posted by ordisi1 at 09:46 AM : Oct 30, 2008
Guess it alluded Geroge Bush
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Posted by ordisi1 at 09:46 AM : Oct 30, 2008
Guess it alluded Geroge Bush
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Posted by rickwar at 10:24 AM : Oct 30, 2008
Lets try that again, eluded, George Bush.
Bad, bad ,keyboard on previous post
What Barack Obama said: %u201CThat%u2019s why my health plan includes improving information technology, requires coverage for preventive care and pre-existing conditions and lowers health care costs for the typical family by $2,500 a year.%u201D
The facts: His plan does not lower premiums by $2,500, or any set amount. Obama hopes that by spending $50 billion over five years on electronic medical records and by improving access to proven disease management programs, among other steps, consumers will end up saving money. He uses an optimistic analysis to suggest cost reductions in national health care spending could amount to the equivalent of $2,500 for a family of four. Even if those savings are achieved, there%u2019s no guarantee that every dollar would be passed on to consumers in the form of lower premiums. Associated Press
Posted by ordisi1 at 11:04 AM : Oct 30, 2008
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Are you talking about Palin?
- VOTE FOR CHANGE - 2008
Posted by mycommentspg at 11:05 AM : Oct 30, 2008
If we only got half of the promised goods, thats still 100% more than we are getting right now.
Performance is where Barack Obama has nothing to show for his political career, either in Illinois or in Washington.
Policies that he proposes under the banner of "change" are almost all policies that have been tried repeatedly in other countries-- and failed repeatedly in other countries.
Politicians telling businesses how to operate? That''s been tried in countries around the world, especially during the second half of the 20th century. It has failed so often and so badly that even socialist and communist governments were freeing up their markets by the end of the century.
POLLS ARE TIED. DON''''T LET THE UNINFORMED PEOPLE OR THE MEDIA FOOL YOU ...AGAIN.
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by Confidential416
October 31, 2008 3:56 PM EDT
- The only way McCain/Palin can win is to steal the election - it is not beyond the republicans to steal elections (2000) - This time they play a very dangerous game because I believe fraud and suppression on their part will cause an outcry of the American people that this country has not witnessed since it''s independence. . I am very worried about what the republicans will do this time. McCain/Palin have no honor and are untrustworthy - they continue to lower the bar in political campaign ethics - there is nothing they won''t do to win - including trying to steal the election.
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