Starting Gate: Miles To Go

We've seen some big moments on this primary campaign over the past several days but don't let yourself be fooled – the biggest is yet to come. Each day brings some new moment assured to "change the course of the campaign."

An endorsement here, harsh comment or negative ad there, each instance is elevated to great importance. Then, as they have done in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, the voters actually speak. Today Florida votes at moment which should help bring some clarity to the race but only serves to further set the stage for next week's big Super Tuesday blowout.

It looks like the end for Rudy Giuliani, who declared this his must-win state and predicted whoever wins Florida will win the nomination. It appears only a miracle would provide Giuliani the ability to go forward and, while he has publicly said he will join the remaining Republicans in tomorrow's televised debate in California, there are also signals that today might well mark the end of his campaign.

Conventional wisdom appears to be meshing with Giuliani in that there is a lot of talk about Florida being the end-game for the GOP. Whoever wins here between John McCain and Mitt Romney will have the edge heading into next week's Super Tuesday (really, can we get past trying to come up with catchier names and just stick with what works?). Maybe, especially since the winner will walk away with a huge chunk of delegates. But unless there's a blowout one way or another it seems likely to simply set up a two-way battle that might grow even more contentious over the next seven days.

Florida is also playing a lesser role among Democrats. Hillary Clinton is drawing more catcalls and criticism from the Obama campaign and the media for what is being cast as a stunt. Showing up to claim what is probably a meaningless victory does have the scent of a politician wishing to change the subject from losing both the South Carolina and Ted Kennedy primaries.

It may be a political ploy on Clinton's part but it is far more understandable than the adversarial position taken by the national Democratic Party and the Obama camp toward the crucial general election state. Democrats may end up thanking Clinton for insisting that voters in Michigan and Florida both received at least lip-service from someone during the primary process instead of punishment. These are, after all, two fairly important states.

Today is another day in campaign 2008 but it's hardly the last – and there are miles to go before the nominees can get some sleep.


The Dynastic Duo: The endorsements of Ted, Caroline and Patrick Kennedy of Obama yesterday have been treated as much like an actual royal coronation as a political move. So enthralling is the spectacle that it actually dominated the president's State of the Union address last night. There were Senators Obama and Kennedy sitting next to one another like best friends throughout Bush's speech, soaking up the atmosphere and attention. Papers this morning are full of pictures and descriptions of that dynamic – especially the apparent snub of Clinton by Obama when she approached the duo to shake hands.


What Would A Florida Campaign Be Without A Castro Controversy? CBS News' Scott Conroy reports: Mitt Romney’s Florida state chairman Al Cardenas told reporters that Romney supporters reported receiving robo-calls yesterday falsely claiming that the former Massachusetts governor wants to open up U.S. relations with Fidel Castro’s Cuba.

Cardenas said the calls were “obviously a dirty tactic and strategy to rebut the efforts that we make to let the community know our position on the subject.”

Asked if he believed the calls were coming from the McCain campaign, Cardenas said, “I don’t know of other campaigns that have robo-calls going in the Miami area other than John McCain’s campaign, but we’re looking into it before I specifically make that statement.” The McCain camp denied any involvement in the calls.


Around The Track

A new Los Angeles Times/CNN/Politico poll shows big leads for both Clinton and McCain in California one week out. Among likely Republican primary voters, the poll has McCain ahead of Romney 39 percent to 26 percent. Among Democrats, Clinton held a 49 percent to 32 percent lead over Obama. The poll was mostly conducted before the results of Saturday's South Carolina primary or today's Florida vote.

Make sure to brush up on the delegate selection rules before Super Tuesday before declaring any outright favorites in either race.

The question for John Edwards going forward appears to be whether he can add enough of those delegates to his column next week to become a real kingmaker in the nomination fight.

Today's weather forecast for Florida -- highs in the 70s throughout most of the state with chances of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Remind us again why the nomination process doesn't start there?