Comments on: Obama Opens Up Big Lead In New Poll

Washington Post/ABC News Poll: Economic Fears Give Democrat Clear Nine Point Advantage

[janefondu]

i see achangenow is fabricating a number as is the media to help prop up Obama''s campaign.

[the74blaster]

Regardless, I don''''t have much faith in statistics/polls.

Posted by mcdazz,

I make use of statistics with my job. It does provide a good means of determining if you have true differences with test data. Public opinion polls are another animal.

[achangenow]

It should come as no surprise that Obama is in the lead again. With McCain there''s a 90% chance that the country will be facing more of the same failed policies we''ve had for the last 8 years. Finally, people are seeing through all the distortions the Republicans are trying to feed us. Again, it''s a clear choice as to which candidate has the better ideas to get the country back on track! It''s as simple as that, Jack!

janefondu at 09:46 PM : Sep 24, 2008 wrote:

"I think the debates should start shifting the poll numbers."

I''m inclined to agree with you.

I also think that the current economic situation will also have an effect on voters - one way or the other.

[janefondu]

keep smokin whatever your smokin skyk. thats all I have to say on that.

[the74blaster]

You are very accurate and THAT I believe is the reason for the actions of McCain. He''''s caught with his statement on Monday though... the Foundation of the Economy is Strong. How do you go from THAT to opposing the buy out of AIG, to a Commission to STUDY the situation to things being so bad that the Debate must be called off. That''''s a leap few can or will make I''''m afraid.

Posted by skyk239,

Yeah. To go record and have it blow up in your face like this issue has would make it rather to difficult to debate. Obama will have plenty to work with and the question McCain needs to answer is as follows. I would not want to be in McCains position.

Is it better to just get it over with or take the chance that delaying it will allow things to cool off a bit.

This is a huge gamble by McCain. If the public percieves it as a political move it could backfire and its lights out. The other possibility is he recovers and it stays a close race.

[janefondu]

i agree mcdazz, i''ll wait to see what 11/05/08 brings.

alanrobisch2 at 09:35 PM : Sep 24, 2008 wrote:

"If you look carefully they post the results as being plus or minus 3%"

Actually, it''s 2%:

"the maximum margin of sampling error is 12 percentage points."

Regardless, I don''t have much faith in statistics/polls.

[skyk239]

The poll that suggests a 9 pt advantage to Obama has been proven to be unobjective and biased. When the facts were checked on this poll this is what was found. Blacks were polled in a 3/2 ratio to whites also the geographic area polled is a democratic leaning area. This poll does not show what is going on with the race. The other polls showing 47 to 44 a statistical dead heat is the fact that there is a margin of polling error of +/- 3 points. In effect we are still tied going into October. I think the debates should start shifting the poll numbers.

Posted by janefondu at 09:46 PM : Sep 24, 2008

LOL You don''t need a poll to figure out the kind of trouble McCain is in... you need ONLY to talk to people... Let''s face it the guy is totally LOST on economics and can''t get his story or position straight. NONE of the polls have him leading and I''d guess Obama up 5 to 9 points and that is growing by the minute. This CRISIS has PROVEN to people that the Democrats and Obama are better able to deal with the economy. On that POINT NONE of the Polls differ!

[the74blaster]

Posted by the74blaster at 09:36 PM : Sep 24, 2008
+ report abuse
You may be right but why should a one shot poll be more accurate than an ongoing poll by Gallup. It is as current as yesterday

Posted by alanrobisch2,

Sometimes they will use a rolling average or they do not consider the political make up of the people they question. Gallup is very good source and for the most part it is unbiased.

The interesting point with the ABC poll is the 9 point margin is higher than most. The difference could be that there were more democrats in their sample or ther were more republicans in the gallup sample.

Realistically, the best way to read the polls is to track the results and obtain a trendline. The part that is surprising is how the McCain lead evaporated after the convention bump.

Whats going to happen is anyones guess, but it will be interesting to see if McCain recovers from what appears to be a significant change in his position regarding regulation of investment firms.

I guess all you and I can do is watch.

Hand in there the roller coaster has just left the station!