Comments on: Myanmar Holds Referendum Amidst Aid Crisis

Junta Tries To Cement Hold On Power, Turns Cyclone Relief Efforts Into Propaganda For Military

[nyeinc]

In ideal world, the Burmese people might have voted NO overwhelmingly. But in the real world they live in, the Burmese people are going to vote YES. The draft constitution will be approved with 65% yes-votes approximately.
The Burmese people are NOT going to vote against the draft constitution NOT because they don%u2019t normally respect (Daw) Aung San Suu Kyi BUT because she and her followers cannot bring a change in political climate. The paths to democracy the regime opponents put forward %u2013 regime change by people%u2019s power revolution, regime change by UN Security Council%u2019s binding and punitive resolutions %u2013 are high cost, high risk though possibly high return.

[beehive21-2009]

Let us go take that country,they need help and may have some value.The current situation look helpless and the kings needed tightening.Heard they have Tigers.

[nyeinc]

In ideal world, the Burmese people might have voted NO overwhelmingly. But in the real world they live in, the Burmese people are going to vote YES. The draft constitution will be approved with 65% yes-votes approximately.
The Burmese people are NOT going to vote against the draft constitution NOT because they don%u2019t normally respect (Daw) Aung San Suu Kyi BUT because she and her followers cannot bring a change in political climate. The paths to democracy the regime opponents put forward %u2013 regime change by people%u2019s power revolution, regime change by UN Security Council%u2019s binding and punitive resolutions %u2013 are high cost, high risk though possibly high return.

[nyeinc]

In ideal world, the Burmese people might have voted NO overwhelmingly. But in the real world they live in, the Burmese people are going to vote YES. The draft constitution will be approved with 65% yes-votes approximately.
The Burmese people are NOT going to vote against the draft constitution NOT because they don%u2019t normally respect (Daw) Aung San Suu Kyi BUT because she and her followers cannot bring a change in political climate. The paths to democracy the regime opponents put forward %u2013 regime change by people%u2019s power revolution, regime change by UN Security Council%u2019s binding and punitive resolutions %u2013 are high cost, high risk though possibly high return.

[nyeinc]

As for the free and fairness of the referendum, one should remember 1990 elections? Before the elections were held, the regime opponents and their state/non-state supporters and sympathetic media called the 1990 elections as unfree and unfair. (Please read your own newspapers and media again) After the elections were held and when the regime opponents won, the regime opponents and their state/non-state supporters and sympathetic media called the 1990 elections FREE and FAIR.

So, their judgment on the free and fairness of 1990 elections (and thus the ongoing constitutional referendum) will depend on the outcomes whether their sympathizers win or lose.

On the other hand, the regime opponents and their state/non-state supporters and sympathetic media might not have a chance to make their embarrassing spin in this referendum. Good for them, isn%u2019t it?

[nyeinc]

We will have to see the true attitude of the Burmese people towards the military and their appreciation of its relief efforts when the referendum poll results from the worst-hit areas are released in the future.

Can the Burmese military win back %u2013 as it did win until the mid 1980%u2019s %u2013 the hearts and minds of its people in addition to winning the referendum?

[nyeinc]

The darker side of the story is that the Burmese military government might be wrong in thinking that the natural disaster and its efforts might be in its favor, resulting in the approval of the constitutional draft.

The usual scenario of the aftermath of natural disasters is that the soldiers %u2013 usually national guards in U.S %u2013 marched into the disaster hit areas, cleaned up the mess, do the difficult tasks and embraced the people%u2019s favor. I believe that the Burmese soldiers did so and should also regain its people%u2019s favor.

However, the oversea Burmese Opposition is getting one step ahead and maligning the Burmese military, wrongly alleging in the Burmese-language radio programs that the military fail to adequately respond the natural disaster of such magnitude; that they don%u2019t see soldiers in the streets although there were soldiers cleaning up the main roads (think snow routes) essential for resuming the trade and essential government services. You can look at the wire news photos with the soldiers cleaning up the debris from the fallen trees on the main roads.

One such tactics is to fault the military for not helping the people enough, placing the words in the mouth of the anti-regime trishaw driver and the First Lady of U.S.

[nyeinc]

Why doesn%u2019t the Burmese government %u2013 or the Referendum Commission in particular %u2013 want to postpone the referendum in the entire country?

One possible reason is that the Cyclone hit very badly only in several regions of the country and the referendum could go on as scheduled in the rest of the country. If a hurricane, May GOD forbid, hit the NY-NJ-PA tri-state area a few days earlier, would US postpone its presidential elections scheduled on Nov 4, 2008?

Even in the five regions declared as natural disaster zone, approximately 47 townships were ravaged. So, the referendum could be held as scheduled in the rest of the country. The latest news is that the government postponed the referendum in the severely-hit areas, 40 out of 45 townships in Yangon province and 7 in Irrawaddy.

If the referendum is held on May 10 as scheduled in the country except the 47 most-severely-hit townships, the government %u2013 less concerned about another attempt at people%u2019s power revolution in the presence of international aid workers %u2013 might be able to allow more international aid teams into the country, especially for the longer-term reconstruction and rebuilding.

The international teams wouldn%u2019t %u2013 and shouldn%u2019t plan to %u2013stay on in Burma for the next two or three years until after the general elections scheduled in 2010.