Comments on: Calif. Resources Strained As Fires Rage

Exhausted Firefighters Still Battling More Than 300 Blazes

[providence_z]

So while it is still impossible to answer the question of "How much time is left", we might be able to use the price of oil and gas as some rough indicators of where we''re at. We''re hovering around $125/barrel and $4/gallon right now and already seeing significant slowdowns in the housing, banking, airline and automotive industries. Shutdowns likely begin around $200/barrel and $8/gallon. At $300/barrel and $12/gallon most everything simply stops.

If prices continue to rise at a pace even roughly resembling the trajectory of the past two years, this gives us 6-to-24 months before total shutdown. From Ken''s Deffeyes'' blog post linked up above

[providence_z]

While nobody can predict with complete precision when "things will get bad", Ken Deffeyes - Princeton professor of geology and author of Hubbert''s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage - recently published an analysis at his blog that gives us some type of rough idea. His conclusion appears to be that oil at $300 a barrel will produce, more or less, a total economic shutdown

[providence_z]

There will be emergency summits, diplomatic initiatives, urgent exploration efforts, but the turmoil will not subside. Thousands of companies will go bankrupt, and millions will be unemployed. "Once affluent cities with street cafis will have queues at soup kitchens and armies of beggars. The crime rate will soar. The earth has always been a dangerous place, but now it will become a tinderbox."

By 2010, predicts Leggett, democracy will be on the run . . . economic hardship will bring out the worst in people. Fascists will rise, feeding on the anger of the newly poor and whipping up support. These new rulers will find the tools of repression -- emergency laws, prison camps, a relaxed attitude toward torture -- already in place, courtesy of the war on terror

[providence_z]

"What does all of this mean for me?"


What all of this means, in short, is that the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. To illustrate: in a July 2006 special report published by the Chicago Tribune, Pullitzer Prize winning journalist Paul Salopek described the consequences of Peak Oil as follows:
. . . the consequences would be unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would tip the world into a generations-long economic depression. Millions would lose their jobs as industry implodes. Farm tractors would be idled for lack of fuel, triggering massive famines. Energy wars would flare. And carless suburbanites would trudge to their nearest big box stores, not to buy Chinese made clothing transported cheaply across the globe, but to scavenge glass and copper wire from abandoned buildings. Source
Journalist Jonathan Gatehouse summarized the conclusions of Oxford trained geologist Jeremy Leggett, author of The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Financial Catastrophe, in a 2006 Macleans article as follows, emphasis added:
. . . when the truth can no longer be obscured, the price will spike, the economy nosedive, and the underpinnings of our civilization will start tumbling like dominos. "The price of houses will collapse. Stock markets will crash. Within a short period, human wealth -- little more than a pile of paper at the best of times, even with the confidence about the future high among traders -- will shrivel."

[providence_z]

In the U.S., up to 20 percent of the country''s fossil fuel consumption goes
into the food chain which points out that fossil fuel use by the food system
in the developed world "often rivals that of automobiles". To feed an
average family of four in the developed world uses up the equivalent
of 930 gallons of gasoline a year - just shy of the 1,070 gallons that
same family would use up each year to power their cars. Source

According to the Organic Trade Association, the production of one pair of regular cotton jeans takes three-quarters of a pound of fertilizers and pesticides. Source

In short, people gobble fossil fuels like two-legged SUVs.

For more information, see:

Why our food is so dependent on oil

Will the end of oil be the end of the end of food?

How will we grow food after Peak Oil?

Hungering for natural gas
"Are all forms of modern technology actually petroleum products?"


Yes.

[providence_z]

"Big deal. If gas prices get high, I%u2019ll just drive less. Why should I give a ***?"


Because petrochemicals are key components to much more than just the gas in your car. As of the year 2002, approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US. Source The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:

Pesticides and agro-chemicals are made from oil;

Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which is also peaking in the near future. Source

Most farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil-derived fuels.

Food storage systems such as refrigerators are manufactured in oil-powered plants, distributed using oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or coal. Like oil and natural gas, coal too is peaking in the near future. Source

In the US, the average piece of food is transported almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. Source In Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000 miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed. Source

A recent article published by CNN documented just how much fossil fuel energy is used to produce our food.

[providence_z]

Many industry insiders think the decline rate will far higher than Cheney anticipated in 1999. Andrew Gould, CEO of the giant oil services firm Schlumberger, for instance, recently stated that "An accurate average decline rate of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption." Source Some industry analysts are anticipating decline rates as high as 13% per year. Source A 13% yearly decline rate would cause gobal production to drop by 75% in less than 11 years.

If a 5% drop in production caused prices to triple in the 1970s, what do you think a 50% or 75% drop is going to do?

Estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate that this drop in production has already begun. Source The consequences of this are almost unimaginable. As we slide down the downslope slope of the global oil production curve, we may find ourselves slipping into something best described as a "post industrial stone age."

[waqahi]

Just because the messenger is a freak does not mean that the message is totally false. Why disregard the claims that these fires are God''s response to California''s Supreme Court to allowing same *** marriages? The bible told the fate of Sodom and Gomorrah and the Quran mentioned the people of Lut who: "What! do you indeed approach men lustfully rather than women? Nay, you are a people who act ignorantly." Quran 027.055 - AL-NAML; (THE ANT, THE ANTS) Verse 55. The weather forecasters mention of more of the same conditions that are fueling the fire; therefore, I suggest that California rescind its decision on same *** marriages this Sunday and see if the weather conditions, miraculously change in favor of better controlling these fires. After all, allowing men and women to marry of their own *** is twice as bad as what the people of Sodom and Gomorrah used to do; furthermore, and as my new Muslim neighbor puts it: God has not apologized to any one for what he did to Sodom and Gomorrah. He says all this freaky weather is for condoning homosexuality; on the other hand, I say; it is because America targets a people who bow and prostrate for God more than thirty four times a day. Would God allow the super power who targets his worshippers with invasions, occupations, and bloody merciless covert operations get away with it? Or is the God of the Muslims a false one? Is he?

[providence_z]

Fortunately, those price shocks were only temporary.

The coming oil shocks won''t be so short lived. They represent the onset of a new, permanent condition. Once the decline gets under way, production will drop (conservatively) by 3% per year, every year. War, terrorism, extreme weather and other "above ground" geopolitical factors will likely push the effective decline rate past 10% per year, thus cutting the total supply by 50% in 7 years. Source

These estimate comes from numerous sources, not the least of which is Vice President *** Cheney himself. In a 1999 speech he gave while still CEO of Halliburton, Cheney stated:

By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth
in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a
three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That
means by 2010 we will need an additional 50 million barrels per day.Source

Cheney''s assesement is supported by the estimates of numerous non-political, retired, and now disinterested scientists, many of whom believe global oil production will peak and go into terminal decline within the next five years, if it hasn''t already. Source

[providence_z]

The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn''t need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.

In a similar sense, an oil based economy such as ours doesn''t need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10 to 15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.

The effects of even a small drop in production can be devastating. For instance, during the 1970s oil shocks, shortfalls in production as small as 5% caused the price of oil to nearly quadruple. The same thing happened in California a few years ago with natural gas: a production drop of less than 5% caused prices to skyrocket by 400%.

[providence_z]

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, bankers, and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."
Peak Oil is also called "Hubbert''s Peak," named for the Shell geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert. In 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970. Source#1 Source #2 He also predicted global production would peak around the year 2000, which it would have had the politically created oil shocks of the 1970s not delayed it for about 5-10 years.

For more information:

A mere 15% shortfall in oil production will spike oil prices by 550%

Robert Hirsch on CNBC: Gasoline will soon be $12-to-$15 per gallon

[taotxzen]

CHRISTIAN WHO FIND THEMSELVES IN CALIFORNIA, GET OUT! I believe this is a warning of mass destruction forthwith and yet to come. The perversion allowed by your U.S. Supreme has now comdemned it. GET OUT, NOW!!!

Posted by mcv57 at 09:49 PM : Jul 05, 2008

There you go interputing God for us all. Get over yourself!

[taotxzen]

CHRISTIAN WHO FIND THEMSELVES IN CALIFORNIA, GET OUT! I believe this is a warning of mass destruction forthwith and yet to come. The perversion allowed by your U.S. Supreme has now comdemned it. GET OUT, NOW!!!

Posted by mcv57 at 09:49 PM : Jul 05, 2008


See how they pass the sodomite new laws I would have to agree with you!

Posted by Providence_Z

If your type of ''Christian'' wants a lift out of California have them call me...

[taotxzen]

CHRISTIAN WHO FIND THEMSELVES IN CALIFORNIA, GET OUT! I believe this is a warning of mass destruction forthwith and yet to come. The perversion allowed by your U.S. Supreme has now comdemned it. GET OUT, NOW!!!

Posted by mcv57 at 09:49 PM : Jul 05, 2008


See how they pass the sodomite new laws I would have to agree with you!


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Posted by Providence_Z

''When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross.''

Sinclair Lewis

[providence_z]

Economy
Why the British Economy Will Plunge Into Depression
By Michael C. Feltham
Jul 2, 2008, 00:15

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Author%u2019s Preface: As the financial world still reels from the effects of sub prime and the real estate meltdowns in the USA and the UK and as government representatives and financiers and commentators all run around like headless chickens looking for some other guy to blame for the fiasco, it is time to put the record straight. Most everyone talks about %u201CSub Prime%u201D and %u201CThe Global Credit Crunch%u201D as if it was a mystery virus which suddenly appeared out of the blue like avian %u2018flu! It wasn%u2019t: the whole thing was totally predicable and certain: there was a huge inevitability that was created by slack regulation, fiscal desperation and the old enemy: greed. It is perhaps worth re-reading the author%u2019s earlier predictions: The Worm in the Big Apple (Jun 6, 2004) and The Parlous Condition of Britain''s Economy! (Jun 30, 2004). - MCF

[providence_z]

Economy
Why the British Economy Will Plunge Into Depression
By Michael C. Feltham
Jul 2, 2008, 00:15

Author%u2019s Preface: As the financial world still reels from the effects of sub prime and the real estate meltdowns in the USA and the UK and as government representatives and financiers and commentators all run around like headless chickens looking for some other guy to blame for the fiasco, it is time to put the record straight. Most everyone talks about %u201CSub Prime%u201D and %u201CThe Global Credit Crunch%u201D as if it was a mystery virus which suddenly appeared out of the blue like avian %u2018flu! It wasn%u2019t: the whole thing was totally predicable and certain: th

[providence_z]

CHRISTIAN WHO FIND THEMSELVES IN CALIFORNIA, GET OUT! I believe this is a warning of mass destruction forthwith and yet to come. The perversion allowed by your U.S. Supreme has now comdemned it. GET OUT, NOW!!!

Posted by mcv57 at 09:49 PM : Jul 05, 2008


See how they pass the sodomite new laws I would have to agree with you!

[mcv57]

CHRISTIAN WHO FIND THEMSELVES IN CALIFORNIA, GET OUT! I believe this is a warning of mass destruction forthwith and yet to come. The perversion allowed by your U.S. Supreme has now comdemned it. GET OUT, NOW!!!

[wardoglrs]

So in other word''s we cant fight fire But we can have wars?....

[naucoming4u]

Our USA resources as a defense against nature''''s fury have been strained ever since the idiot-in-chief started a war over non-existent WMDs.

Posted by cbsblogger at 09:21 PM : Jul 05, 2008
............

True, it will take a massive "Army" of firefighters now and in the near future to effectively fight the rapidly increasing wildfire outbreaks across the whole nation!