Oil spike: Why speculators need a hug

COMMENTARY Oil and gas prices are on the move, with the current national average for a gallon of regular gas at $3.61, up from $3.19 a year ago, according to AAA's fuel gauge report. Before getting into the why, here's a recent breakdown of where the money goes in pumping $1 of gas, according to the Energy Information Administration:

Crude oil is the largest contributor to the price at the pump, which means the $30 spike in a barrel of crude since October is the main cause of our gas woes today. What has moved the markets so dramatically? Don't blame consumers for this one, because Americans' gas consumption is at 11-year lows (perhaps the only positive outcome from the recession).

Speaking from Miami, Fla., President Obama pointed out some of the culprits for the recent oil and gas spike, including a general pick-up in the economy; rising demand from China and India; and anxiety over Iran. But at the end of the day, the rise has more to do with speculation in the markets than anything else -- and that's not necessarily as bad as it sounds.

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Last year, when the price of crude oil surged above $114 a barrel and the average cost for a gallon of regular gas nearly pierced $4, there were hoots and hollers about evil speculators, as if commodities futures traders were part of some illegal syndicate that's rigging the game against consumers. That's not exactly how the markets work. (Full disclosure: My first job on Wall Street was as a commodities options trader on the floor of the COMEX.)

The oil sector, like any other market, is made of up of lots of players, including speculators. In the oil market, there are usually two types of speculators -- end-users like airlines, which use the market to protect against future price fluctuation, and investors who bet on the direction of oil. These investors aren't monolithic -- they include pensions, mutual and hedge funds, even that neighbor of yours who's into exchange traded funds -- they're betting on the same price fluctuation.

Right now, end-users in Europe and Asia are gobbling up oil because they fear that access to Iranian oil will be shut down or a more serious conflict could cut off the shipment of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. These actions seem less nefarious and more practical than anything else. Are there pure-play speculators who are piling into the market now? Sure, just like they did at the top of the market last year, only to see their short-term paper profits vaporize into realized losses.

If we don't like speculation in the oil markets, there is a very easy fix: The oil market regulator, Commodities Futures Trading Commission can impose what's called position limits, which limits the size of the bets that speculators can make and/or change margin requirements.

But let's hope that the president doesn't once again tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is meant for emergency supply disruptions. Last June, Obama resorted to what in retrospect looks more like a public relations stunt, especially when in comparison to the two previous SPR requests over the past two decades, the Gulf War of 1991 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

We discussed oil prices on this week's "Ask the Experts":

[nfission]

Just remember when you hug a snake, that it's a snake.

[NosferMarki]

If you guys wouldn't mind, could you sign my petition for congress to repeal the Commodity Futures Modernization Act? It can be found by searching for it on Change.org. I just really want to make a difference!

[Osprey4]

Amazing how people think the President has some control over a global commodity. Sure, raising taxes is really going to drive prices down!

Be serious.

[rayward73446]

nFission, I couldn' have said it better myself!

[sjc_1]

If peak oil did occur in 2006, then we are seeing what others have known for a while. Supply is flat and demand is increasing, fundamental economics says prices go up. There is still oil, there are still refined oil products, it is just that others are willing to pay more, welcome to globalization and the decline of the dollar due to a decade of trade deficits due to rising oil prices.

[gruven13777100]

And by the way $3.60 is nothing.
Regular here is $3.95
Premium is $4.25

[gruven13777100]

This is all total crap. There is no oil shortage. There has never been an oil shortage, EVER...and there never will be a shortage in the near future.

This is speculators, oil producers, and gas stations stealing from the general public...while Obama and Congress turn a blind eye.

[toro_1963]

These idiots (speculators) are squeeezing the life out of the economy for crying out loud... and they need a hug??????. Why do I call them idiots? Because they don't realize that the short-term profits for their investors are creating generalized havoc in the economy. At this pace RICH PEOPLE WILL BE DRIVING THEIR LUXURY VEHICLES AROUND DILAPITED CITIES. WILL THEY BE HAPPY THEN?

[betterusa]

Jill: your husband, boyfriend or both must be in the speculator or oil business. Why else would you applaud rising prices? Obama should tap the Reserve; especially since the US now exports more oil than it imports. We can replace the oil (when necessary) we took to help the average US worker. Isn't helping the 99% what a president should be doing? Frankly, we should remove oil and energy in general from the commodities market so these crooks can only bid on precious metals and food.

[rbi149]

The president's "public relations stunt" drove oil prices back down and sent a message to speculators that if they get too greedy, similar action might be taken in the future. This time all he might have to do is threaten releasing the oil reserves to drive prices down. He can't win. If he does nothing, gas prices are his fault and if he is proactive, it is a "public relations stunt".