Don't Count on Health Care Reform to Solve Any Problems

(MoneyWatch)  I switched obstetricians yesterday and suffered a severe case of sticker shock when I saw the bill. Despite having health insurance, the impending birth of my child will set me back several thousand dollars. (Why it's going to cost so much is a story for another time.) As I stared at the fee schedule, I wondered if health care reform will prevent other families from getting hit with such high delivery expenses. My prediction is no.

If the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009 is any indication of what health care reform will look like, Americans shouldn't count on much help with their medical bills. I expect reform to be so disappointing that I doubt it will significantly decrease the number of people who are forced to file for bankruptcy after a major illness. And those of us with insurance could even see our premiums rise.

Here's my prediction for health care reform based on the types of consumer protections put into place with the credit card bill:

• Those without health insurance will have the option to purchase an affordable plan for a couple of hundred dollars a month. These plans, however, will have so many coverage holes that Americans will still end up paying for the majority of their care out of their own pockets. Insurance companies will start selling supplemental plans -- costing another couple of hundred dollars -- to help families get more comprehensive health insurance.

• More small and medium employers will stop offering health insurance since they will be able to make the argument that anyone can purchase a government approved plan on their own.

• Hospitals and doctors will stop offering their patients payment plans since they too will be able to argue that everyone should be able to purchase health insurance. The patients who can't afford their bills will be pushed to finance their treatments with medical credit cards (which charge outrageous interest rates if you can't pay off your balance quickly), a trend that we are already starting to see.

• There will be some good news. Insurance companies will be forced to rewrite their benefits manuals so that anyone with an eighth grade education or higher can understand their coverage. This will make it harder for insurers to hide tricks and traps in the fine print.

• Insurance companies will be required to give members 90 days notice before raising their premiums. (The bad news? Like with credit card interest rates, the premium increases will not be capped by the government.)

• The insurance providers will also receive a slap on their wrists for initially denying claims that are legitimate in the hopes that members won't fight the decision. But it will still be up to the health care consumer to monitor their claims and make sure the insurers don't continue the practice.

Finally, if the credit card bill is anything like what we'll see with health care reform, don't be surprised if we another completely unrelated law protecting our right to carry arms gets thrown in by the gun lobby.

Does this sound realistic to you? What do you think health care reform will look like?

Ambulance image by gwire, CC 2.0.