Drones: A big industry waiting to be born

HoverFlow

(MoneyWatch) Once the Federal Aviation Administration sorts out the rules governing unmanned civilian aircraft, the market for commercial drones will soar, according to a new report by a pair of aerospace analysts.

Darryl Jenkins, a long time airline analyst, and Bijan Vasigh, a professor of economics at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Fla., prepared the report for the Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, an industry trade group.

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Drones on the horizon

They say the market for commercial and non-military drones will top $13.5 billion within three years, and will grow to more than $80 billion between 2015 and 2025, during which more than 100,000 well-paying jobs will be created. They predict national tax revenue of $482 million by 2025.

The analysts describe a "transformative technology" in fields ranging from farming, oil and gas exploration, law enforcement and even freight transport that is waiting for regulatory clearance.

"The main inhibitor of commercial and civil development of the (unmanned aircraft sector) is the lack of a regulatory structure," they wrote. "Every year integration is delayed, the United States loses more than $10 billion in potential economic impact."

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The authors used interviews, comparable sales in other countries and studies of the rates of adoption of other new technologies, among other techniques, to arrive at their predictions. They cite several assumptions that must occur before the industry really takes off: In addition to new regulations from the FAA that would provide sufficient certainty, they assume a GDP growth of 3 percent a year, the ability to get insurance, sufficient capital available to small companies and purchasers, and that the number of jobs lost in traditional sectors requiring pilots in the air will be made up in the new industry.

The possibilities, as the authors see it, are tantalizing: A farmer saves money and uses less pesticide because drones provide precision application, creating environmental and economic benefits.

In what might come as no surprise to those in the aerospace industry, the new jobs will be most heavily concentrated in states that already have a large aerospace presence: California comes in first, then Washington, Texas, Florida and Arizona.

[johnlockesghost]

I would say that for those who own automatic, or semi-automatic weapons, drones would be fair game.

[johnlockesghost]

"They say the market for commercial and non-military drones will top $13.5 billion within three years, and will grow to more than $80 billion between 2015 and 2025, during which more than 100,000 well-paying jobs will be created. They predict national tax revenue of $482 million by 2025."---Immaterial! It is an invasion of our privacy not to mention the trampling of our constitutional rights. Freedom and Liberty are not free and today the apparent cost is preventing the use of drones against American citizens.

[webgone]

No Worry, they put up traffic signs, drone free air space for 5 miles ahead.

[StephenNelsonCross]

Drones are great in a combat zone. They allow our troops to see their opponents without risking themselves. Foot soldiers can easily carry one in a backpack and the controller is as easy as a video game to use.

Unfortunatley it has been shown that any extra surveillance power a government has, it will overuse. Either orders from the top or overzealous operators will push the boundaries by invading the privacy of "innocent" civilians. If there are broad definitions of "business use" then I expect neighbors and competitors to also be using them to spy or "gain an edge". I think they should be tightly restricted to industial areas, farm land treatment, and utility photo inspection. Any residential area use should be subject to use only with search warrants.

[johnlockesghost]

If their use could be abusive, it will be abusive!

[mjlewis6]

It is not the government that is the greatest resource of this country. It is the people. We must become better educated as well as better armed and organized than our leadership which is consequential at best.

As long as we cannot change the government nor direct its policy or objectives, we become the lowest level of funtionaries of its own purpose and our rights are words with no meaning. Waco and Ruby Ridge are examples of government intrusion (well before drones) to protect us from crazy people who break the law on their own property. What will armed drones do?

When government takes our personal wealth for its own policies, violates our privacy and property rights 'to protect us,' and lastly insures our health and education with mediocre instruction and resources, we become like the Indian we displaced to the reservation with promises that our land will be ours "as long as the eagle flies and the grass grows...."

I guess if you can swallow it....you can believe it.

Cameras and armed drones will be on the landscape very soon for a profit to the larger corporations and by your state & city government.

[Scimajor]

Paranoia aside (taking off my tin foil hat for a moment), I have no more trouble with domestic drone usage than I have with police helicopter usage.

Also, there are already plenty of laws currently in place that already restrict drone usage (e.g. FAA regulations about where and how high remote controlled planes can fly).

The drone incident last week where a drone was in Class B airspace (near a major airport) is a great example. It is already against the law to fly anything into Class B airspace without first getting permission from flight controllers.

Lastly, I find it amusing that the people who are whining the loudest about drones are almost all from the political party that also would like everyone to have as many firearms as possible. I'd rather have 20 drones flying over my house than have 1 neighbor with an automatic weapon.

[mtbque]

Not to worry full automatic weapons are very rare. As for semi-auto, I'll you have neighbors who own them.

[mtbque]

Not to worry full automatic weapons are very rare. As for semi-auto, I'll you have neighbors who own them.

[hypnotoad72]

Nice spin.

Sure, help sellout your fellow countrymen.

Since the next thing the companies will say is that "nobody is educated, we'll go offshore", while colleges offer nothing, much less every other excuse...

Just remember,
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/security/does-microsofts-sharing-of-source-code-with-china-and-russia-pose-a-security-risk/6789


http://www.c-span.org/Events/Senate-Investigates-Counterfeit-Parts-in-Military-Equipment/10737425339/

Wanting it both ways is just lose-lose in the end. :(

[skephart]

Cleverly invented to counter growing terrorism, drones usage offers no controls nor checks and balances to prevent them from being used for politically nefarious purposes.

Imagine what Richard Nixon would have done if he'd had such peremptory or discretionary presidential authority? Any of his antagonists, like Daniel Ellsberg, would have monitored by domestic drones... and then Ellsberg would have been picked up and held for providing "material support" to the enemy in a time of war.

There are currently no discernible safeguards to prevent a paranoid and power hungry President (think Johnson, Nixon, or Obama), or his/her national security team, from using drone technology as a threat and/or punishment to political enemies, particularly given the exigencies of war or a domestic emergency like 9/11.

For national security purposes, Americans are already subject to warrantless wiretaps of calls and emails, the warrantless GPS "tagging" of their vehicles, the domestic use of Predators or other spy-in-the-sky drones, and the Department of Homeland Security's monitoring of all our behavior through "data fusion centers."

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/03/ff_nsadatacenter/

Given this toxic mashup of losses of privacy, if the road to hell is paved with good intentions, then domestic drones are a superhighway to an Orwellian panoptic gulag.

America's promise has always been the power of the many to rule, instead of the one. Ungoverned drone usage, particularly domestically, gives power to the one.

Domestic drone usage is ill-conceived, elitist, and end-runs our inherent Constitutional protections.

Here are two (2) different videos that anchor my points:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssoOASanKao

http://vimeo.com/59689349

[hypnotoad72]

Nixon, a man whose record is more liberal than (, yes,) Obama's... Nixon, the man who illegally wiretaped others for competitive gain in an election...

Orwell and Mussolini are applauding the West right now.