Obama win: What it means for your tax bill

(MoneyWatch) The election is finally over, which means the tax clock is ticking. Congress now has eight weeks until the U.S. economy jumps over the much-dreaded "fiscal cliff," the combination of tax increases and spending cuts that are scheduled to go into effect in January 2013.

Earlier this week, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said that a lame duck Congress "probably shouldn't do big things," but "the best you can hope for is a bridge." That bridge may mean a short-term extension, which would allow  newly-elected lawmakers and President Barack Obama to hash out a deal.

Today, Speaker Boehner was a bit more conciliatory, saying that all sides are "closer than many think" to being able to revise the tax code and come to an agreement and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said "Of course" a deal is possible, adding that he had a "pleasant" conversation with House Speaker John Boehner this morning and a "nice conversation" with President Obama last night about moving forward on fiscal cliff negotiations.

If all of these kind words wear off behind closed doors and no deal occurs, it's estimated that 80 percent of Americans would see some form of tax increase next year. The Tax Policy Center estimated that a typical U.S. household would face an average of a $3,700 jump in taxes.

The reason is that a bunch of tax cuts are set to expire, including:

-- Bush-era tax cuts, which will bring the tax system back to 2001 levels

-- President Obama's 2 percent payroll tax cut holiday

-- A series of other temporary tax cuts, including: The enhanced dependent care credit, the enhanced child credit, the enhanced adoption credit, a portion of the enhanced earned-income credit, the repeal of personal exemption phase-out, the repeal of limit on itemized deductions, the enhanced student loan interest deduction; and the exemption for mortgage debt forgiveness.

-- Additionally, the following tax cuts have already expired, but are up for renewal in 2013: AMT adjustment, deduction for state and local sales taxes, IRA charitable donation provision for taxpayers 701/2 and older and Educator's classroom deduction.

The stakes are high if the economy goes over the fiscal cliff. The Congressional Budget Office said that the U.S. economy would slide into a "significant recession" as a result of the tax increases and spending cuts. The CBO estimates that the economy would shrink by 2.9 percent in the first half of 2013 and by 0.5 percent for the whole year. The Fiscal Cliff would also likely increase the nation's unemployment rate, from the current 7.9 percent to over 9 percent.

• Full coverage of election 2012
• Election results

Here is the effect of the fscal cliff for various earners:

Low-middle wage earners: One of the biggest losses for low to middle wage earners will be the Earned Income Tax Credit, which was a refundable credit (meaning that even if your credit exceeds your tax liability, you don't lose the excess and are entitled to receive any overage as a refund) for married couples filing jointly with 2011 earned income under $49,078 and singles with income under $43,998.

On top of the EIC, the expiration of the "payroll tax holiday," a 2 percent Social Security tax cut on the first $110,000 in wages, will mean a tax hike of $1,000 per year. Add in the old tax rates that will go back into effect after the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, as well as tax and college credits, and you can see how tax bills for middle and lower taxpayers can pile up.

Upper middle wage-earners: In addition to the payroll tax increase, this group faces higher tax brackets. For every dollar above $70,700, the tax rate will be 28 percent, up from 25 percent. Over $142,700, the rate rises to 31 percent from 28 percent. The current capital gains rate of 15 percent will increase to 20 percent, while the 15 percent dividend tax rate will equal income tax rates.

High wage earners (over $200,000 single, $250,000 married): The two top tax brackets are set to rise from 33 and 35 percent to 36 ($217,450-$388,350) and 39.6 percent (over $388,350) respectively. In addition to the capital gain and dividend rates, as of 2013, the new health care reform will levy a new surtax of 3.8 percent on capital gains, pushing up the top capital gains rate to 23.8 percent for high income earners. Finally, the estate tax is also set to increase. Right now, each tax payer is entitled to a tax credit that wipes out the estate tax due on the first $5,120,000 of an estate. The tax rate above the $5 million threshold is 35 percent. When the Bush tax cuts expire, the exemption will drop to $1 million and the tax rate will increase to 55 percent.

What to do before end of the year: Given these potential tax increases, if you are sitting with ample gains in a taxable account, it could make sense to sell the position and lock-in the 15 percent capital gains rate this year. Even if Congress averts jumping off the fiscal cliff, most economists believe that capital gains rates will likely rise over the next five years. Additionally, this could be a great opportunity to re-balance your portfolio with lower cost assets, like no load index funds. Additionally, if you haven't reviewed your estate plan in a few years, it's a good time to dust off the file and make an appointment with your estate attorney.

[GaboonViper28]

Wow 10% to 35% tax-rates. No wonder you guys have such a hard time stabilizing your national debt.

34% is our lower bracket income tax. 52% is the highest, which starts at an income of 54.000 euro (around 60.000 - 70.000 dollar).

I don't know why you guys are so worried that your rich people will leave to other civilized countries. There are none that can beat your tax-rates.

[daliere]

In the US you can have state taxes, county taxes and city taxes as well. They all have their hand in your pocket. The Federal Income Tax is not the whole picture. Of course every state is different. Every county is different. Every city is different. Get the picture?

[anebt]

Everyone is now freaking out because the bill is coming due. Folks, everything government gives for "free" or at a lower cost costs a lot. I will get government-subsidized health insurance at an 80% discount given my current income. That means I will only pay about $150 a month.

I didn't vote for it, though, so maybe Obama's reelection is a blessing in disguise.

[walkthetalk]

Ahem!

[BigMoNATL]

I just want my guberment cheese and Ill be happy..

[walkthetalk]

It is more blessed to to recieve than to work.

[walkthetalk]

Well if you caught someone stealing from your piggie bank a little too often i'll bet it wouldn't take you very long to do something about it.

[cherrybrown]

I have just read every comment here and boy are they sad! Tthis is the one comment that makes sense.

"Is it possible to move forward this time without blaming the past, but actually working together to repair some of the damage that BOTH parties contributed too?"

It is not rocket science. It is not hard. BOTH parties need to stop with all this division. I would love to see actual concrete ideas in these posts instead of the ignorant juvenile jabs.

Why not make the tax breaks permanent and increase taxes on the highest income levels? As a middle income person I am prepared for the tax increases-don't like it but I am prepared.

I still live in the greatest Country in the World and I am thankful to be here. I will do my part as I always have.

[Uneed2BWeened]

If all sounds great until you through a minority under the bus... "increase taxes on the highest income levels" - a small percent of the population. How can you say that? It sure is easy to pick on someone who doesn't have the votes, very American of you.

[Kodamats]

i make just barely enough to be considered low middle income earner so im easily not the highest income. but taxing the rich for what they've earned through their own work is called legalized plunder and its unamerican. "why work 10% harder and get taxed 13% more?" it removes incentive to work harder. these people will just stop hiring and producing to remain at lower income brackets. tax everyone equally, spend less and reward those who work and contribute. let those who dont work and dont contribute feel the pressure and be compelled to work and produce. if people get what they work for with their own hands they will produce that much more because thats american exceptionalism and human nature.

[Joseph_42]

I've been 28 years under the Communist Ideology and what I see today in America is very close to what I saw in the past. Wake up Americans !

[Fed-Up_Patriot]

I too see this threat you speak of.. I wish immigrants that fled these countries and legally immigrated here would speak up about the "EVILS" of communism.

That being said - there are other problems going on here just as pervasive. If somebody on the left points out problems in private industry - such as many cases of outrageous fraud, cooking the books, or market rigging, people on the right are quick to say that's just leftist - communist propaganda. But what about the wide-spread, BLATANT, UNDENIABLE FRAUD. I never knew that people that from the business community that should truly believe in competitive capitalism that is honest and follows the rule of law ( such as I do ) would ever consider pointing out fraud - or corruption as a "communist" act. Since when is criminal behavior in our society acceptable? Every time I see this - I start to wonder how deeply in-grained the fraud and corruption have really become. Wall Street should be working its tail off rooting out the fraud amongst its ranks instead of trying to conceal it and protect it. Their image with the American people is tarnished now for very good reason... They need to do everything possible to root out fraud - so that America can have faith once again in its capitalist system and financial institutions. Since this is not happening - HARDLY AT ALL - I get a sense that many people have given up hope for that - that we can't get back to where we where before. Many folks are proposing ideas and solutions now that - are FAR FAR worse. I don't know what's wrong with trying to fix what's bad broken with what we got. It has brought us great success up to this point. It is not the honest, successful hard working business people that I want to condemn - I admire them BUT it IS the WIDE-SPREAD FRAUD and criminal behavior that goes unpunished daily that I want to CONDEMN. I'm puzzled why the business community is not right here along side me on this.

While I agree there are huge systemic problems being pointed out - by both sides... I'm not seeing anybody addressing the problems head-on, directly or correctly. Instead - I only see alternative solutions being offered now that will only make everything worse by both candidates and both parties. And All the time this is happening - the average person is having less and less control of their own destiny...and we are being fleeced at every possible turn. I guess the election was all about the lesser of 2 evils doctrine at play here - eating away at us.. That only slows down the damage - things still become more evil over time. Let's face it BOTH candidates in this election were cr*p choices that only really offered the American people solutions that amounted to collective suicide.

So now where are we- now that half the electorate just swallowed the poison pill of "Big Government - and just print more money ".... We'll have to all suffer the consequences - of this decision.. Not that I think Romney's ideas wouldn't also have had just as bad of consequences. They'd be just as bad - but the negative effects would've been different.

[abbe91]

Income tax history ... low/high bracket rates

Year

1964 16% 77%
1965 14% 70%
1981 14% 70%
1982 12% 50%
1987 11% 38.5%
1988 15% 28%
1991 15% 31%
1993 15% 39.6%
2003 10% 35%
2011 10% 35%

Hint : compare to 1964, for example.
So I guess that "Taxmageddon" already happened !!!
And, no, tax cuts don't create jobs. Demand for more production does.

[helloterran]

We probably didn't have 47% voters without any tax liabilities back then. Most people could afford the tax in the 60's, because most of the money are used to improve their own lives, instead of some other group whose name is not PC to mention here.

[cc1973]

HELLOTERRAN; You are correct. Tax Liabilities were drastically lower than 2012 liabilities.


ABBES91:
A simple economic truth: If the government would spend less and reduce taxes = more money in PEOPLE'S wallets to spend on consumer goods, facilitating private enterprise hiring to meet increased demand.

Talk to any small business person. They are terrified to hire additional people with increased regulations and taxes continually emanating from Washington due to the anti-business policies of the current administration AND THE 'FREE STUFF' MENTALITY OF THE ELECTORATE. Nothing is free. Sooner or later yoy run out of other people's money.

[walkthetalk]

If i were rich i would vacate this Sherwood Forest so fast a F 16 couldn't catch me!

[For-A-Reason]

Why do you have to be rich? Please leave if you don't want to be here. I feel certain the people that know you will ante-up to get you to leave!