By

Constantine von Hoffman /

MoneyWatch/ September 21, 2012, 6:45 AM

Unemployment could plague U.S. after jobs return

Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images
(MoneyWatch) America is facing an unemployment problem far more complex than what emerges in government jobless statistics. Changes in who the unemployed are and what has happened to them in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis could mean a starkly different economy even after jobs have returned.

Going just by the numbers. it might appear things are getting better, or at least not getting much worse. The unemployment rate dropped in August to 8.1 percent, from 8.3 percent. Yet the main reason for that decline was that many job-seekers gave up looking for work. A more accurate picture is visible in the four-week average of the number of people applying for unemployment benefits. The Labor Department said today that nearly 378,000 Americans applied for jobless aid last week, the highest level in nearly three months and the fifth-straight week that figure has increased.

It isn't just the number of people out of work that matters; it's also how long they've been out of work. Of the nearly 13.3 million unemployed people in the U.S., 5 million, or 40 percent, have been without a job for more than six months, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of this total, 4 million, or 29 percent, have been jobless for a year or more. This is near the all-time and three times the rate at the start of the Great Recession in 2008. It currently takes an American 39 weeks to find a job after being fired.

Poverty remains level, but incomes fall
What do Americans think of the rich?
Is the U.S. economy healing or coughing blood?

The longer people are out of work, the harder it is for them to eventually make their way back into the labor force. And when they do find a job, it is typically for lower pay than what they previously earned. That doesn't only hurt individual households -- it's problematic for the entire U.S. economy, too, since employees facing lower wages and salaries are likely to reduce their spending, a serious challenge for a country that depends on personal consumption to drive growth.

It's well known that job losses have been lower among more highly educated people. In August, the unemployment rate for those with only a high school diploma was 10.3 percent, while for those with college degree it was 4.3 percent. But that disparity levels out once people lose their job.

An unemployed person with a doctorate has roughly the same chance of being out of work for more than a year as someone who hasn't finished high school, according to Pew Research Center. In fact, an unemployed worker with a PhD is slightly more likely to have trouble finding work again. That's because employers believe that the skills of these so-called knowledge workers decay the longer they are out of work.

Highly educated workers are also at a disadvantage because of the time required to acquire that education. Once older workers lose their job, meanwhile, they are are far more likely to enter the ranks of the long-term unemployed than younger workers are.

People returning to work after a long period almost always earn significantly less than they did before. The larger pool of job candidates, along with huge gains in worker productivity over the last decade, has caused the median income in the U.S. to fall. The median annual household income last year was $50,054, down 1.5 percent from 2010, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. It has now fallen back to the level it was at in 1996. This is shrinking the middle class as an income group and, perhaps even more fundamentally, may even be changing Americans' social identity.

Pew Research Center

Since World War II, most Americans have described themselves as belonging to the middle class. Indeed, the percentage of people who identify themselves as middle class has traditionally far exceeded the statistical definition of this group as measured by distribution of income. But that seems to be changing.

Pew, a nonpartisan think tank, also has found that nearly a third of Americans now describe themselves as belonging to the lower class -- that is up from 25 percent at the start of the recession.

About three-quarters of those who think of themselves as lower class say it's harder to get ahead today than it was 10 years ago. Only half believe hard work brings success, a view expressed by overwhelming majorities of those in the middle (67 percent) and upper classes (71 percent). People in the lower classes are also significantly more likely than middle- or upper-class adults to believe their children will have a worse standard of living than they do, Pew's research shows.

The expectation that each generation will surpass their parents is, of course, central to the American Dream. But with the middle class shrinking and the lower class expanding, that defining social and economic narrative in the U.S. may soon need revision.

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc.. All Rights Reserved.
31 Comments Add a Comment
linkicon reporticon emailicon
Stan Feinberg says:
We read all the jokes and forward the good ones but I
just wonder who will pass this one on. How about you
sending it on and back to me if you got the guts to do
so. I am and just wonder how many I will get back?
AND very happy to be of the 1%.
Someone
please tell me what the HELL's wrong with all the
people that run this country!!!!!!

Both
Republicans & Democrats
We're "broke" & can't help our own Seniors, Veterans, Orphans, Homeless
etc.,???????????

In the last years we have provided aid to:
Haiti, Chile , Pakistan, Lybia , Egypt and Turkey , And Japan
Literally, BILLIONS of DOLLARS!!!

Our retired seniors living on a 'fixed income' receive no aid nor do they get any breaks while our government
and religious organizations pour
Hundreds of Billions of $$$$$$'s and Tons of Food to Foreign Countries!

We have hundreds of adoptable
children who are shoved aside to make room for the adoption of foreign orphans.

AMERICA:
a country where we have homeless without shelter, children going to bed hungry, elderly going without 'needed' meds, and mentally ill without treatment - etc,etc.

YET....................... They have a 'Benefit' for the people of Haiti on 12 TV stations, ships and planes lining up with food, water, tents clothes, bedding, doctors and medical supplies.

Imagine if the *GOVERNMENT* gave 'US' the same support they give to other countries.

Sad isn't it?

99% of people won't have the guts to forward this.

I'm one of the 1% --
I Just Did
=


____________________________________________________________Woman is 57 But Looks 27
Mom publishes simple facelift trick that angered doctors...
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
SupportCitizens says:
We would be back to prerecession job numbers if we forced Citizens on unemployment to take reduced benefits and take the jobs our law breaking government and criminal employers have given to illegals and excess legals we let in the country each year without considering our unemployment situation! Americans have to wake up and replace all the Ds and others supporting so many illegals and legals without considering the lack of jobs and the tremendous debt we have!
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
jmn122736 says:
The Bush/Cheney fiasco was a gigantic disaster that President Obama managed to turn from a 2nd great depression, even with 100% obstructionism from republicans, especially the Republican/Ryan house of representatives.

Republicans have been trying to destroy every safety net America has built since WW2. And they finally found the right formula to do just that. Starting with Reagan in 1981 they initiated what Bush2 rightly labeled "VooDoo economics".
They knew that they would not be able to get America to accept the elimination of those safety nets unless the country was at or near bankruptcy.
Their plan was to drastically increase spending while cutting taxes; then to borrow the necessary funds to fool voters into thinking their policies were actually working

No one ever really noticed that the national debt was rapidly expanding under Reagan simply because the debt had never increased even as much as $100 Billion in any single year after WW2, until 1982. It slowed under Bush1 and increased only $18 Billion under Clinton in 2000.

Then Bush/Cheney almost finished the job by increasing the debt from $5.807 Trillion (at the end of the last Clinton fiscal year budget) to $11.9 Trillion (at the end of the last Bush/Cheney fiscal year budget).

They excused their borrowing by loudly claiming that "THE DEBT DOESN"T MATTER". They certainly weren't concerned about YOUR GRAND CHILDREN then.

BTW, I recall reading somewhere that a certain conservative group said, "in order to accomplish our goal we will need another Pearle Harbor" (read 911).
---------
In my opinion, the fact that Obama didn't allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, nor close the many ridiculous tax loopholes that allow the wealthy to pay almost no taxes, is why the debt has continued it's rapid increase.

The economy HAS been slowed and kept from falling all the way into a second great depression and hopefully, in his second term; Obama will be more aggressive and push harder for those changes.
However, I was very disturbed by his recent promise to go even further in compromising with Republicans on the issues because There is NO DOUBT that republicans will NEVER agree to allowing the taxes to expire, close any loopholes, or (especially) to raise ANY taxes.



Now the rest of the story:

The Romney/Ryan ticket has made it abundantly clear that they are going to destroy Social Security and Medicare, and cut taxes even further thereby finishing what republicans have been striving to achieve for at least the past 3 decades.
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
CaptainSmollett says:
How can any intelligent individual not hold Obama accountable for his mismanagement of the economy? Sure, things were bad when he took office, but the jobs situation should be better than this. In fact, the economy is getting worse recently, and the jobs outlook is deteriorating!

Headlines:
"Data point to slowdown in U.S. manufacturing" Bloomberg (17 Sep.)
That means more job losses coming!

"High unemployment claims point to stagnant U.S. labor market" LA Times (20 Sep.) In fact the rolling four-week average of new unemployment claims INCREASED this month!

When have we had enough of Obama's failure? When are we going to hold him accountable?
reply
jmn122736 replies:
linkicon reporticon emailicon
Typical republican tactic: Start a forest fire in a wind storm and blame democrats for the burned trees.
linkicon reporticon emailicon
omega39-2009 says:
The longer people are out of work, the harder it is for them to eventually make their way back into the labor force. And when they do find a job, it is typically for lower pay than what they previously earned.

Using nothing more than a vote for Republican or Republican Light, I will now turn a $20/hour manufacturing job with benefits into a part time $6/hour service sector job without benefits **Presto Change-o***
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
randysanders says:
The easiest solution is for the wealthiest among us to stop using taxpayer dollars to create fewer and fewer jobs and a weaker middle class. The wealthiest among us should be using their own legitimate profits to create better and better jobs and leave the taxpayers money out of their considerations for doing so. If the wealthiest among us could only understand that the collected tax payers money is to support our local, state, and federal governments and to improve our communities. If the wealthiest were true philanthropists, they would even donate funds to their pet projects in America.

Unfortunately, the wealthiest have expanded their global infrastructure solely for their own profit and their "trickle down theory" doesn't really work. If they truly had a "great society" in mind, they sure haven't accomplished it yet.

If the wealthiest have ever read the Federalist Papers, James Madison Federalist #10 must be their favorite because they've been sitting on their reserves for sometime now and not investing in America. What are the wealthiest real motivations afterall?

I don't want to offend the wealthiest, but I'm sticking with Obama Biden 2012.
reply
askagain replies:
linkicon reporticon emailicon
If I felt your arguments were valid and factual, I'd join you in voting for Obama. Instead, I'm voting for Romney.
linkicon reporticon emailicon
ThomasSense says:
Here's an example of how the rich get rich. When my IRA, Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund, lost 33% of it's value in 2008, the rich bought. In 2009, it went up 28%, then in 2010, it went up another 12%. They just pay capital gains tax on it. Great "job creation!" Yeah, cut their taxes some more. Over 3 years time, my IRA still isn't back to the value it had. It was the rich on Wall Street that gambled America into this mess. It was the deregulation of the banking industry that allowed. Yeah, we need to create a more friendly environment for business. Ha, ha. The trickle-down economy feels like something other than money. There is class warfare going on, and the rich are winning big time.
reply
David_Tampa replies:
linkicon reporticon emailicon
It is our fault as long as we continue to vote with emotion instead of voting our wallets. The wealthy love it!
INSTEPPE replies:
linkicon reporticon emailicon
You will be glad to know that I just heard a commercial for a wonderful low interest ARM(Adjustable Rate Mortgage).
I couldn't believe that we are going to start all of this
again.
People will take these and get eat up in a few years when the interest goes up, up, up....
More Foreclosures, more bankruptcy, and more ruined credit.
linkicon reporticon emailicon
David_Tampa says:
@ ad_iudicium Everybody pays taxes. 47% pay no income tax but they pay a disproporationate amount of sales tax, property tax through rent, and taxes on utilities. Lighten up there a bit.
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
David_Tampa says:
@Shallow_LibsAre_Cretins

Identify yourself what do you do.... what have you done.... what will you do? I thought so another silly troll.
reply
linkicon reporticon emailicon
David_Tampa says:
Who said JOBS ARE GOING TO RETURN??? No they are not going to return. We have voted and not voted ourselves into this mess. We fantasize that some day we are going to be rich. Well guess what.... no we are not! Our manufacturing jobs are gone and they continue to leave.

We are permitting this by voting for a party that runs men like Romney. We vote for these people for a myriad of reasons. Religion, abortion, gun ownership, silly rumors, the lack of cable in the rural areas so all we see is FOX. We are certifiable.

40 percent of us pine for a shooting revolution. The same 40% believe that such a war would be glorious. We are certifiable.

I grew up in Ohio. 35% of the citizens in that state do not believe that we went to the moon at all, let alone 6 times. We are certifiable. The same citizens see conspiracy everywhere. They do not believe that the state of Hawaii produced the president's birth certificate. The government which they hate is made of 22 million conservative employees who have socialized medicine for health care called Medicare. We are most definitely certifiable.

Continue to vote or stay home for the top 2% while they enslave you and laugh at you by proxy. (wonder what the poor people are doing tonight?) ever hear or say that? Well now you know, or soon will find out! I am an old man, 66 in a few days. I am lovineveryminutofit!
reply
See all 31 Comments