February jobs: Another robust report
(MoneyWatch) One month is a fluke, two months is encouraging, but three months makes a trend. The February jobs report showed 227,000 jobs were created in February and the previous two months were revised higher by 61,000. The unemployment rate remained at 8.3 percent, after falling for five consecutive months.
The jobless rate has remained above 8 percent for three years, the longest stretch since monthly records began in 1948. But the flat rate should actually be considered one of the bright spots of the report and there's a convoluted explanation of why that is the case.
One reason why unemployment has dropped since last year is that many out-of-work people got so disgruntled, they stopped looking for jobs. The government only counts you as unemployed if you are actively looking for a job. In econo-speak, this is referred to as the "participation rate" and it is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. Over the last 20 years, it has been around 66-67 percent and it was 66 percent before the economy entered recession in December 2007.
Economy adds 227K jobs, jobless rate unchanged
Last month, the participation rate rose to 63.9 percent, a slight increase from 63.7 percent in January, which was the lowest participation rate since the early 1980s. While some of the decline in the labor force is due to demographics (as boomers near retirement age, the participation rate has naturally slid by one percent), economists say that a sustained rise in the number of people looking for jobs would be a good sign, even if it pushed up the unemployment rate in the short-term.
The bottom line in February: Despite an increase in the number of people looking for jobs during the month, the rate stayed at 8.3 percent and that is a positive.
So how is this jobs recovery going overall? Since employment bottomed in February 2010, the economy has added just under 3.5 million jobs. However, there are still 5.3 million fewer total jobs now than when the recession started.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com
Like the overall economy, progress is good, but we have a long way to go. At the current rate of job creation, it will take approximately four years to return to the pre-recession level of 5 percent. (You can check out this nifty jobs calculator from the Atlanta Fed to see how many jobs are needed to lower the unemployment rate to some target over a certain period.)
Some more sobering facts:
-- Of the 12.8 million Americans currently unemployed, 5.4 million have been unemployed for six months or more, 42.6 percent of the total unemployed. The average duration of unemployment stands at 40.1 weeks.
-- It's still hard to land a job due to competition. There are currently approximately 4 unemployed people for every job opening available and the number of job openings remains below the level when the recession began in December 2007.
-- According to a recent study, just 7 percent of those who were let go during the recession have matched their previous income. A little over half reported taking a pay cut - and of those, 29 percent took a reduction in salary by 30 percent or higher. To top off the bad news, 30 percent of the reemployed took a reduction in benefits.
-- Cuts to state and local government workforces have been particularly damaging for women. Of the net change in total state and local employment between 2007 and 2011, 70 percent of the drop is from female employees. Today, there are about 540,000 fewer women in state and local jobs than in 2007.
-- Recent college graduates have had a hard time landing jobs and those that have jobs, are earning less. The Economic Policy Institute found that the average inflation-adjusted hourly wage for male college graduates aged 23 to 29 dropped 11 percent over the past decade. For female college graduates of the same age, the average wage is down 7.6 percent.
-- Wages are not likely to rise enough to make up for the drubbing Americans took during the Great Recession. According to the Federal Reserve Q4 2011 Flow of Funds report, household net worth peaked at $66.8 trillion in Q2 2007, then plunged $50.4 trillion in Q1 2009 and stood at $58.5 trillion in Q4 2011. So we're about half-way there: up $8.0 trillion from the bottom, but still $8.4 trillion below the peak.
February Jobs Report
-- Jobs Created: +227,000 (January and December revised up by 61,000)
-- Private Sector Jobs Created: +233,000
-- Government: -6,000 (in 2011, government lost an average of 22,000 per month)
-- Unemployment Rate: 8.3 percent
-- Under-Employment Rate (marginally-attached, part-time): 14.9 percent (the first time its been below 15 percent since January 2009-in 2007, the rate was 8 percent)
-- Total Number of Unemployed: 12.8 million (unchanged)
-- Long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks and over): 5.4 million representing 42.6 percent of the total unemployed (down from 5.5 million)
-- Average duration of unemployment: 40 weeks (from 40.1 weeks)
-- Average workweek: 34.5 (unchanged)
-- Average Hourly Earnings: up $0.03 to $23.31 (up 1.9 percent over past 12 months)
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THE BOTTOM LINE: U.S. manufacturing is coming back under President Obama after an ENTIRE DECADE of Republican policies causing the loss of a total of 4.6 million manufacturing jobs!
As the graph in the story above indicates, the bush/cheney Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the deepest and longest economic downturn since the 1930's Great Depression. The first bush recession in 2001 was much milder, yet job losses continued until the last quarter in 2003, despite the recession being over in Nov. 2001 -- almost 2 years later and 2 bush tax cuts for "jobs and growth" being enacted by the republicans.
The worst job losses in the bush/cheney Great Recession occurred around the beginning of 2009, and steadily improved after the 2009 ARRA throughout the year, as job losses decreased and job creation became positive about 1 year later, and increased ever since.
I just love this graph by the BLS here:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
thechooch1: "proffessrG sorry, but you aren't going to be able to spin good news into bad."
Yep, the fox/rush parrots are out in force every month that we have decent private-sector job creation numbers, and can only 'try' to spin the good news into bad news for political gain among the haters.
FACT: The average private-sector job creation numbers over the past 3 months is 245,000 per month -- the best in SIX YEARS!
FACT: During bushworld, only ONCE did any 3-month stretch EVER match the past 3-months of private-sector job creation, which was Jan/Feb/Mar of 2006 -- from the housing boom and illegal alien scourge!
FACT: One more good month of 200K+ job creation under President Obama will set a record dating back to the 1990's under Bill Clinton of private-sector job creation, since dubya's record of job creation was anemic at best, proving again that "supply-side economic insanity" creates NO JOBS and only transfers wealth to the top 1% of Americans!
The facts and figures are right here from the BLS:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
Nice BLS graph on that page for the slow learners or the uneducated!
And what exactly were the fox/rush parrots saying in December?
They were saying, "these jobs are only temporary seasonal jobs."
Now with the revisions in both Dec. and Jan., we've seen an additional 61,000 jobs, and the best 3 months of job creation in 6 years.
No wonder the fox political network buried this story!
The Republican game plan is to destroy the economy blame the Democrats and President Obama. This is their strategy to obtain the White House and the Senate in the 2012 elections. If you think the Republicans are death on average Americans, working-class and middle-class people now. Just think of how much more damage they could do to this country if they had the house,the Senate and the presidency to consolidate power to do whatever they want. They would then have free reign to turn America into the Third World country that they want for their corporate overlords.
They've already shown their hand by not approving extended unemployment benefits for people and anything else that would help the average American. Then they took America to the brink of default with the debt ceiling crisis. A crisis in which they created. Republicans on the supreme court ruling corporations are people and therefore can give unlimited funding to politicians. Republicans fighting for tax cuts for corporations, big oil and the wealthy while advocating cutting social security, medicare and medicaid. For those reasons and more I can't imagine any thinking working-class poor or middle-class person voting to support Republicans after all the damage they've done to this country. Americans must reject republicans at town hall meetings and the polls for their anti American unpatriotic strategy and tactics. The only difference between Timothy McVie and the republicans is he used explosives and they used their congressional positions.
The phony debt ceiling debate and agreement is another part of the republican game plan to take back the senate and white house. They create artificial crisis to stall (run out the clock on President Obama's term) and cripple him and the economy to prevent JOBS from being discussed or created. They are counting on voters blaming the president for the bad economy even though they the republicans are sabotaging every step of the way. Even a blind man can see republicans couldn't care less for average Americans. Just imagine what they would do if they controlled the house, senate and presidency. Americans cannot let that happen. Because it is crystal clear by the behavior of republicans they do not want America to progress and will hold it hostage to prevent it.
Republicans are screwing up government to prove their mantra " government doesn't work". This is designed to frustrate and turn off non supporters from voting thus paving the way for their depraved zealots to vote republican. Americans need to punish republicans at town halls and the polls. They cannot be allowed to get away with sabotaging our great nation. Americans need to recognize that republicans have no intention or incentive to do anything to bring America out of its economic woes.
After all, they think they can also get elected by blaming President Obama and Democrats. Time will tell if voters will fall for this again. Prevent abuse of struggling Americans and America. Just say no to voting for republicans.
Tell that to the MILLIONS of American auto related manufacturing jobs...smarty pants.
How is the economy on the wrong track? Given the fact that globalization is here to stay and middle class jobs continue experience a decline in remuneration as a result, exactly what is your solution?
I am not ranting against globalization. It is a fact and cannot be reversed. What needs to be done is for the United States to determine how to deal with a declining middle class and growing lower and upper classes. Since, at least for the past 60 years, the middle class has been the engine which drove our economy the problem we have to address is what form our socio-economic structure will take given the increasing disparity of income necessitated by globalization.