What’s your initial take on these numbers?
We were expecting the number of claims to come down after the
elevated numbers previously when some people were displaced by the winter
storms. We’re seeing job numbers getting closer to a level consistent
with employment gains, although they’re still a little high. We’d
like to see new claims in the 350,000 range to say that labor markets have really
healed and are consistently generating jobs. So the jobless numbers are better,
but they’re still somewhat elevated.
What are you expecting from the full March employment report, which comes
out on April 3?
It’s pretty much a slam dunk we’ll get a
positive employment report for March. Not only will we see 100,000 jobs from
catch-up for people displaced by the weather, but the U.S. Census has begun
hiring and that will add almost as many jobs (the bad news is that many postal
workers left their jobs to take Census jobs, so we’re not getting as
much net job creation as we’d like). So getting between 150,000 and
225,000 gains in jobs in March is pretty likely. It’s encouraging but
nothing to pop champagne corks over.
Are there any other encouraging employment trends you’re seeing?
We are seeing employment generation in manufacturing —
March should be the third straight month of gains there. And we will continue
to see gains in health care employment. The other place we’re looking
for gains is business services. Businesses have been reluctant to hire full
time workers, but they are hiring consultants as a way to deal with moderately
stronger economy without adding benefits. It’s not much, but it’s
something.
What would you need to see to convince you that employment is really
recovering?
We’d need to see unemployment claims closer to
350,000 per week and longer-term unemployment drop significantly. That latter figure
is almost 4.7 million now, and that needs to drop by hundreds of thousands,
instead of tens of thousands.
What’s your overall takeaway from today’s numbers?
This is economy where people still go away hungry —
that’s what so difficult. It’s a recovery consistent with
an economic crisis. We can’t just hit the pedal and go again like we
did in the 80s.
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