United Seems to Be Closer to Buying New Aircraft

(MoneyWatch)  Last week, United (NYSE: UAUA) retired the last of what was nearly a 100-strong fleet of 737s as recently as a little over a year ago. What were they replaced with? Smaller jets flown by regional carriers. But now, it appears that United may be getting closer to actually buying more jets of its own, albeit at the other end of the aircraft spectrum.

The report is that United is looking at replacements for its 747s, 777s, 767s, and 757s. That's a pretty hard group of airplanes to replace with a single solution, but it is believed that United is pitting Boeing vs Airbus - winner take all. According to Leeham News, Airbus is in the lead.

The 747s and 777s need to be replaced with airplanes that have a fair amount of capacity that can go long distances. For Boeing, that means either the 747-8, 777-300ER, or 787 aircraft. According to Leeham, United says it isn't interested in the 747, the 777 is "old technology," and the 787 won't perform the missions they need. Airbus, on the other hand, will only have the A350 to put out there, but with its larger proposed aircraft size, United may be intrigued. And the A350 family could also replace the 767 fleet fairly easily (as could the 787).

But what about that pesky 757? There is no airplane being made today that can do what the 757 does well with that number of seats. United can certainly replace the 757 on routes within the lower 48 states. The A321 can run most of those, though it could use a little range extension for those mid-winter westbound runs across the country into stiff headwinds. The new winglets that are being worked on might work.

But the A321 can't go to Hawai'i or Europe. Granted, United isn't using the 757 to go to Europe right now, but it is the mainstay of the Hawaiian fleet. If they went with Airbus, what could replace it? Nothing. If they go with Airbus, they'll have to keep the 757 fleet, I think. Unless they want to start flying a bunch of widebodies on those routes. I would be surprised if that were the case.

There isn't a perfect solution for United right now, but that doesn't mean they can keep sitting around waiting for perfection. My guess is that if they do indeed place an order, it'll be from the lowest bidder.