Schlumberger, Oil-Services to Profit from Political Shifts

(MoneyWatch) 

• The Company: Schlumberger, a leading oilfield services company
• The Filing: Form 8-K filed with the SEC on July 18, 2008
• The Finding: Schlumberger said Friday its second-quarter profit rose 13 percent year-on-year to $1.42 billion, as higher oil and natural gas prices led to record spending among customers seeking to renew reserves. I disagree with the industry pundits who opine that directional rig counts and expanding offshore exploration activities by integrated oil majors will drive sustainable growth for Schlumberger and other diversified oilfield service providers.

The Upshot: On the company's second quarter earnings call last Friday, Chairman and Chief Executive Andrew F. Gould said the two most important trends driving growth over the next few years will be higher commodity prices and the corresponding rise in exploration and expansion by energy companies looking to stem reservoir depletion.

In my opinion, production-sharing arrangements between energy exploration companies and national oil and gas companies such as Russia's Gazprom and Aramco, the state-owned national oil company of Saudi Arabia, will soon become as worthless as a rusted 1928 hand-cranked spud rig. Similarly, reserve growth will need retooling as a metric for evaluating the future promise of energy companies, for the playing field is changing.

Political winds are shifting -- consider the recent standoff between BP-TNK and Royal Dutch Shell on one side and Gazprom on the other over control of Russian natural gas assets. A shift of tectonic proportion is underway, with the Western oil companies who hold concessions under production-sharing agreements now under assault.

If one buys into this premise, oil-field service companies such as Schlumberger, Halliburton and Baker Hughes -- which can deliver integrated project-management solutions from drilling experience in challenging environments to seismic activities -- will grow in importance relative to the Pac-Man asset-gobbling tactics of oil majors such as ExxonMobil or British Petroleum.

The Question: Could the shift of oil-wealth management from integrated oil companies to nation states be a big plus for oil-service contract companies?