Things The Auto Industry Can Be Thankful For, 2009 Edition

(MoneyWatch)  Here's a short list of items the U.S. auto industry can be thankful for in 2009, since it's the Thanksgiving season.

I came up with a similar list last year. As unlikely as it seemed then, with Chrysler and General Motors seeking a bailout and no guarantee they would get one, there really were some things that the auto industry could be thankful for in 2008 - mostly factors with strictly a long-term payoff, like fuel cells.

This year I decided to narrow it down to a shorter-term list of things to be thankful for. It's also a shorter list than last year, because several long-term items from last year's list still apply:

1. Saab. It's just as well that the proposed deal fell through, for GM to sell Saab to Koenigsegg Group AB. If you look up "postponing the inevitable" in the dictionary, it would have a picture of the Saab-Koenigsegg deal. On Nov. 24, the companies announced the deal was off. Koenigsegg, which hand-builds a handful of exclusive, street-legal race cars, was to buy Saab, a would-be mass producer, with lots of help from the Swedish government. I have a soft spot in my heart for quirky brands, but let's face it, Saab has been toast for years, and the Saab-Koenigegg deal was a gross mismatch. By the way, with the Saab-Koeniggsegg deal off the board, in my opinion, the Fiat-Chrysler deal moves back to the dictionary first definition of "postponing the inevitable." 2. Gasoline. Don't look now, but gas prices are up $1 per gallon since December 2008, according to AAA. The auto industry can be thankful gas prices aren't worse. Not only that, the increase has been fairly gradual. Volatility in gas prices makes consumers uneasy, as much as the price of gas itself. In addition, we now have a fairly precise idea of the point at which there's a mass freakout over gas prices - around $3.75 per gallon, and we're not there yet. Finally, the product lineups for Ford and GM, at least, are somewhat better aligned for greater small-car demand. In fact, they're betting small-car demand will take off again, especially Ford.

3. No post-bankruptcy collapse (yet). Chrysler and GM didn't utterly collapse after declaring bankruptcy, as the car companies themselves fearfully predicted back when there was at least slim hope they could avoid bankruptcy. A year ago, Rick Wagoner was still CEO at GM, steadfastly refusing even to publicly say the b-word, for fear that nobody would buy cars from a car company in bankruptcy. Instead, Chrysler and GM have taken lemons, pardon the expression, and used bankruptcy to make lemonade, shutting down plants this summer to keep stocks of unsold inventory under control and greatly accelerating other measures they've known for years they needed, like shutting plants, terminating excess dealers and cutting jobs. Those actions at Chrysler and GM have taken pressure off Ford and allowed Ford to take many of the same actions, even though Ford avoided bankruptcy.

4. Cash for Clunkers. Cash for Clunkers did what it was supposed to do last summer, stimulating sales by paying out a government bonus for trading in a gas-guzzler for a more fuel-efficient choice. Never mind that some analysts said the program wasn't cost-effective. Not only did Cash for Clunkers juice sales, the let-down following the end of the program wasn't as bad as expected.

5. Survival. Even if it's at a subsistence level, the auto industry should be thankful to survive 2009.