J.D. Power October Sales Forecast Is Down, But Not So Much

(MoneyWatch)  Here's an answer to the question: "Just how desperate is the U.S. auto industry for some good news?"

The answer comes today from J.D. Power and Associates, which reported that U.S. auto sales in October will be down only 6 percent - "the first single-digit decline since May 2008."

Yee-ha.

The sad part is, that really is good news, considering how low sales have fallen. Year to date through September, U.S. auto sales were down 27.4 percent to about 7.8 million, according to AutoData Corp. That's almost 3 million units fewer than the year-ago period.

J.D. Power said today it expects 2009 sales of 10.3 million units. That would be about 22 percent below 13.2 million in 2008.

Another way that not-so-bad news for October would be good news is that it's a sign that payback from the success of "Cash for Clunkers" in August won't be as bad or as prolonged as some people had feared. The government program created a sales spike in late July and August, which could have created a deeper trough in the fourth quarter.

Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations for J.D. Power, said consumer credit is somewhat improved, and that is helping October sales.

J.D. Power expects a seasonally adjusted annual selling rate for October of about 10.3 million units, versus 10.5 million units a year ago.