Partying Like It's 1999: Why Big Pharma's Latest "Me Too" Drug Launches Are Doomed

(MoneyWatch)  Everyone knows the era of me-too drugs is over. There's no longer money to be made from copycat compounds as the exclusive patent rights on many of these drugs will run out over the next couple of years, flooding the market with cheap generics, right?

Wrong! say Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK) and Bayer (BAY). In hopes of partying like it's 1999, those three companies have a statin drug for high cholesterol, a sleeping pill and a new erectile dysfunction drug, respectively, either about to launch or in development:

• Bayer's Staxyn: It's an ED drug, but rather than being a pill you swallow, it dissolves on your tongue. Brings new meaning to, "It melts in your mouth, not in your hand." It will compete with Pfizer (PFE)'s Viagra, Lilly's Cialis and Bayer's own Levitra. Viagra goes generic in 2012, according to the USPTO (although Pfizer says it has patents that last through 2019). Vivus (VVUS) is also bringing a new ED drug to market.
• Merck's MK-4305: It's a dual orexin receptor antagonist that's "significantly" more effective than placebo! Don't get too excited, it only improves "sleep efficiency" 12.2 percent over eight hours. It will compete against generic Ambien, Ambien CR, Klonopin, Halcion, and Restoril, in addition to on-patent Lunesta, Rozerem, Sonata, and Silenor. Spot the gap in the market!
• Eli Lilly's Livalo: A new statin launched this month in partnership with Kowa Co. of Japan. Lilly claims it doesn't interact with other drugs as much. It will compete with on-patent Lipitor, Crestor, Vytorin, TriLipix, Niaspan and TriCor, and generic Zocor. In 2011, it goes up against generic Lipitor, the world's best-selling drug.

Analysts are skeptical about Lilly's Livalo, but Derek Lowe reminds us:

Warner-Lambert nearly killed Lipitor along the way because they felt that the statin market was too crowded.

Merck's sleeping pill missed the classic Lunesta v. Ambien battle three years ago, and will probably be an also-ran. The most recent insomnia launch was Somaxon's Silenor last quarter, and that company didn't recognize any revenues from it. Not a surprise, but ask yourself this: Do you know anyone who takes it? What about Ambien? Precisely.

As for Bayer's Staxyn, well, just look how well Levitra is performing. It sold just ?86 million in Q1 2010.

Related:

• Mylan's Revenge: New Suit Threatens to Double Patent Defense Costs for Big Pharma
• Lilly's Plan to Launch "Branded Generic" Drugs: A Blueprint for Lower Profits

Image of the photocopier on Air Force One by Flickr user maralinga, CC.