Sanofi's Multaq Unlikely to Be a Blockbuster, Says Analyst

(MoneyWatch)  Before Sanofi-Aventis launched its heart drug Multaq, some analysts estimated revenues would top ?3 billion. But 10 weeks into the launch, Multaq looks like a much more modest affair, according to a note to investors from Jefferies International.

"Initial volumes are below our low-case scenario," the analysts say. "We believe that consensus estimates materially overestimate the potential for Multaq. As a point of interest we note that the sales value for the entire anti-arrhythmics class in the US was just US$324m over the past 12 months according to IMS, in contrast to the consensus 2014E US sales estimates for Multaq of US$795m (US$1.4bn globally).

Jefferies estimates that Multaq won't break the ?200 million revenue barrier until after 2013, making the anti-atrial fibrillation drug a mere "niche" product:

We believe that Multaq only has a niche opportunity with the potential for usage in some amiodarone patients who do not tolerate therapy due to thyroid disorders

This is cold water indeed, compared to the feverish predictions of blockbuster status that we saw prior to launch. Lest we forget, in this Reuters story:

• Sanofi forecast annual sales of more than ?1 billion ($1.32 billion).
• Morgan Stanley estimated ?3 billion.
• Citi estimated ?1.5 billion.
• The consensus was about ?1 billion.
• UBS said ?1.4 billion.

BNET previously noted that Multaq still looks better than recent launches of Eli Lilly's Effient or Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca's Onglyza.

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