Does This ValueClick Chart Hint at Recovery in the Web Ad Economy?

(MoneyWatch)  ValueClick (VCLK) said it expects its revenues for Q4 2009 to be $130.161 millon, a 13 percent decline from the year before. By weird coincidence that's the exact number the online ad network provider reported for Q3 2009. Assuming it's not a typo, it suggests that although ValueClick's sales are down on the year before, the company's quarter-to-quarter business may have stabilized. Here's a chart showing the sequential percentage change in ValueClick revenues:

Source: Company disclosures. If the pink line is above 0 percent the business is growing. If it's below, it's shrinking. If we assume ValueClick is a rough proxy for the web ad industry as a whole -- it has a wide variety of clients and a variety of digital ad formats -- we might be tempted to conclude that the web ad economy is poised for recovery. It may even grow next quarter (i.e. right now!).

The depressing news is that web advertising was affected in exactly the same way as digital advertising during the recession, despite the fact that it is cheaper, often reaches more people, and is measurable and trackable in a way that old media is not. What are we to conclude? That the Brave New World of the web behaves a lot like the Old World we so cheerfully abandoned ...

• Related:
• Q2: Online Ads Failed the Recession Test; Was It Because of Dumb Clients?