Has Havas Boss Bollore Hamstrung Himself on Aegis Deal?

(MoneyWatch)  Another shareholder meeting at Havas went by last week and once again there was no news about the long-awaited merger with Aegis. In November, when Aegis lost its CEO, observers expected Havas chief Vincent Bollore to pounce on the company.

Since then, we've seen a whole lot of nothing. Here's what happened at the meeting:

Chairman Vincent Bollore told the group's annual meeting on Wednesday that Havas would seek acquisition opportunities but had no immediate plans for the UK's Aegis Group.

Meanwhile, both companies have reported lower revenues and both companies' stocks are well down from their 52-week highs. Indeed, there's a rationale that merging the two companies will protect them both from the current storm. Dow Jones:

"Small players get hit harder," RBS analyst Justin Diddams said, "because they're more committed to a smaller number of clients."

A Havas-Aegis combo would make the combined entity less dependent on any of its clients.

So if this merger is such a good idea, and if Bollore is so passionate about it, why isn't it going ahead? Here's one theory: Because Bollore owns nearly a third of the shares of both companies, whatever he makes by acquiring Aegis shares at a premium will be offset by the decline in value of his Havas shares.

Bollore owns 32.9 percent of Havas and 29.9 percent of Aegis. Normally, when one company acquires another, the buying company's stock declines as the company uses cash or debt for the acquisition, and the selling company's stock goes up as shareholders only surrender their stocks for more than what they are worth on the open market.

This equation is doubly difficult for Bollore, as both stocks are in decline -- a premium on Aegis might not replace whatever he's lost on those shares so far, and Havas stock is unlikely to recover in an environment where the company is expected to lose 10 percent of its revenue this year.

That raises the notion of a scenario in which Bollore can only lose money if he executes the one deal he's always wanted.

It's speculation, of course ... but it would certainly explain the absence of a deal if it were true.

• See previous BNET coverage of Aegis and Havas:
• Aegis Puts Up Barrier to Havas Takeover Bid; Has Bollore Missed His Chance?
• Aegis Q4: Not Talking to Havas; Deal Price Getting More Expensive; 780 Jobs Cut
• Alloy, Aegis Top BNET's Network Efficiency Ranking; WPP Slips
• Havas Q4: Flat Revenues Hide Rising Salaries Budget
• Havas-Aegis Deal Starts to Take Shape; GfK Will "Take a Look"
• The Havas-Aegis Deal Worst-Case Scenario
• With CEO Out, Wall Street -- and Havas? -- Plot Demise of Aegis