Study: Aeropostale, Buckle, Ross Will Enjoy Comparable Store Gains, Hot Topic Not

(MoneyWatch)  Youth-oriented shops and off-price retailers, those that handle close out goods from other stores, are most likely to see comparable store sales advances over the next 75 days, says a study from Prosper Technologies and BIGresearch.

Consumers still are reluctant to spend, but the ForecastIQ study indicated that a handful of retailers look to enjoy gains in their comparable store sales, those in locations open for at least a year. Most likely are Aeropostale and Buckle among the retailers serving young people and Ross among the off pricers. Also likely to see increases are off-pricer TJX and two bargain retailers Cato and Fred's.

Likely to see declines are American Eagle, Children's Place and Stage and almost certain to suffer comp slides, according to the study, are Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap, Banana Republic, BJ's, Neiman Marcus, Bonton, Nordstrom, Costco, Saks, Dillard's and Wet Seal. Hot Top has lately slid from almost certain to see comparable store sales gains to almost certain to see a decline, but its core teen customer always has been tough to predict and, if it does indeed tumble, that may be more indicative of a fashion miss or a turn in what's trendy among young people as an operational or economic issue.

Of course, Aeropostale, Buckle and Ross all have been strong performers of late. In the first quarter, Aeropostale's comparable store sales gained 11 percent while those at Buckle increased 17.7 percent and those at Ross advanced by three percent.

Profits at each of the retailers increased as well, evidence that they didn't give product away to boost their comps and have made gains based on product and operations, which stands them in good stead as consumers today seem to need a reason for a good spend.