Survey: More Companies Planning to Hire in Next 6 Months

(MoneyWatch)  The job market outlook is brightening, a key group of economists said this morning. The National Association for Business Economics released a survey showing that 39 percent of companies expect to hire new workers in the next six months. That's the highest percentage the group has turned up since the beginning of 2008.

The NABE said hiring was already up, with almost a third of employers adding to their payrolls in the second quarter of 2010, compared with 22 percent in the first quarter and 6 percent a year ago. But the survey results also suggested its member economists -- who mainly come from companies but also government, think tanks, and academia -- are expecting the recovery to remain anemic through the rest of this year. A few thoughts...

• We aren't there yet. The economists survey was conducted in the last two weeks of June, but hopes for a strengthening recovery have already faded since then. At the end of last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 261 points on a decline in consumer confidence and worries about the sustainability of the recovery. More jobs have to actually show up and real incomes (which have stagnated for 10 years) need to rise before the recovery will feel real and permanent.

• An anemic recovery isn't the same thing as a recession. Slow job and earnings growth is discouraging, especially to new grads, the long-term unemployed, and anyone stuck in a job they need to move beyond. But slow growth is still growth, not contraction. The more evidence of any growth that piles up -- e.g., positive corporate earnings, some new jobs, and the like -- the less likely we are to have a full-fledged double dip recession.

• It's going to be uneven. Not every industry is going to be growing. The NABE suggested that some service companies still see more layoffs in their future, while investments in technology will continue to strengthen. Job seekers would do well to aim at careers that promise big growth, and at companies, like Verizon and Enterprise, that will do the most hiring.

• It's a good time to dust off the resume. It may take a while before great jobs open up in every sector and section of America. But the sweetest plums will get plucked as soon as they ripen by those who are ready. If you've felt stuck in place for a couple of years, there's hope now. So, up your skills, revise your resume, and start networking like crazy. That promising new job could show up soon.

Illustration by Deanmeyers.net.
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