Will Super Bowl Indicator or John Thain Help Stocks?

(MoneyWatch)  Oh, how I hate old Wall Street chestnuts, like the "January effect", "sell in may and go away" and any other so-called market predictor. But after four consecutive losing weeks for stocks, maybe it's time to embrace the Super Bowl Indicator.


Here's how this one works: if an "original" National Football League team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will rise for the year; if a team that joined the NFL as a result of the merger with the American Football League in 1970, then the bears will dominate the year. Don't laugh--the indicator has an accuracy rate of 79%! The good news is that both the winning New Orleans Saints and the losing Indianapolis Colts are both rooted in the old NFL--the Colts by virtue of the fact that they are the offspring of the Baltimore Colts.

If the Super Bowl Indicator isn't floating your boat, perhaps the news that ex-Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain has landed a new gig (you see, the labor market IS improving!) at beleaguered small business lender CIT. The company came out of bankruptcy protection two months ago and Thain has been out of work since he was forced out of Bank of America after it had acquired ML. Then-CEO Ken Lewis claimed that Thain wasn't forthright about the extent of Merrill's losses and bonuses. Meanwhile, last week, NY AG Andrew Cuomo accused Ken Lewis of fraud in connection with the Merrill acquisition.

Goldman Sachs-The New York Stock Exchange-Merrill Lynch-CIT? Some think that the new job is "beneath" Thain, but I think it's a positive indicator that people are happy to land a job, any job. Thain took a salary cut from CIT--he'll earn to $5.5 million, which is a lot less than his signing bonus of $15 million at Merrill. Maybe Thain's luck is changing and with it, so too will the fortunes of the stock market.

Image by Flickr User RMTip21, CC 2.0