Republicans Successfully Create Climate Legislation Catch-22

(MoneyWatch)  The Republican Party, as amply noted elsewhere, has been having a tough time uniting against President Obama's policies. The arguments they make are often as not feeble or marred by internal arguing. But GOP efforts are starting to show on one part of the Obama's platform, his energy policies. A pattern has emerged in their opposition to the Waxman-Markey climate change bill that seeks to lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Here's the basic thrust: Republicans have been saying all along that emissions targets should be kept low, because they believe high targets will badly damage the US economy. These complaints have so far succeeded in trimming the carbon cap-and-trade plan's intended 100 percent auctioning of credits to 15 percent, with the rest going to various industries, with Republicans cheering on every concession.

But as a recent HSBC report argues, covered in the WSJ, giving away most of the credits will keep prices for them low and give the US only a 3 percent reduction below 1990 emission levels by 2020, so developing countries like China and India will feel little incentive to act. For years, strong action from the US has been regarded as necessary to get the developing world to pitch in.

Therein lies the genius of the Republican's campaigning. If China and India fail to pass their own strong standards at talks this December, as they are expected to, the US will be left in a vulnerable position, with carbon taxes at home and none at its major manufacturing competitors. Crying unfair has been a good strategy for the Republicans in the past; their blue-collar base already has a history of anger at China, at the least.

The GOP will have trouble messing this one up. Any overtures toward stricter standards will trigger the economic damage argument; if the Democrats acquiesce and lower their standards,then the Republicans simply cry foul over the developing countries.