Forrester: Virtual Worlds Due for Comeback, Marketers Should Take Note

(MoneyWatch)  The common wisdom is virtual worlds like Second Life were yet another Internet boondoggle. Major companies like IBM, Pepsi, and Intel spent gobs of money setting up virtual presences in these 3D online gatherings, only to watch nobody come at best, or see puerile griefers vandalize their online property at worst (which famously happened to the folks over here at CNET.) Chalk it up as yet another Web fad that goes through the cycle of exposure, overhype, backlash and finally indifference.

According to a new report out from Forrester's Paul Jackson, however, virtual worlds are due to come back in a big way. In his report "The Revival of Consumer Virtual Worlds," Jackson says that a variety of factors will make virtual worlds explode all over again in the coming two years, and marketers would be wise to start watching the space all over again.

While Jackson cites of a number of reasons why this comeback is due, including Google entering the space with Lively, the runaway success of youth-oriented virtual worlds like Club Penguin, and browser-based 3D worlds becoming the norm, one of particular note to marketers is the growth of metrics in these virtual worlds.

One of the main issues with creating marketing within Second Life was there was simply no way to judge ROI. Companies had to be happy with drawing ancillary brand awareness through PR outreach. That is to say, its likely more people saw press about Pepsi's building virtual vending machines in Second Life than actually ever used them.

Jackson suggests that companies can use the metrics of deep engagement, what Forrester dubbed the Four I's --involvement, interaction, intimacy, and influence -- in order set up a more rigorous audit of whether virtual world investments are having real world pay off. How exactly these metrics would be set up from a technical standpoint is left to the reader's imagination, unfortunately.

Virtual worlds do hold some promise, but I'm hesitant to say that they're due for a comeback, or have real value beyond vague branding efforts for most companies. Real, objective metrics are needed, for one. And even Google's Lively, which is about as dumbed-down as a virtual world can get, is still mystifying to any consumer who hasn't spent their youth running around inside 3D games. Marketers, particularly those with an eye towards China, where Jackson says many of the new virtual worlds will spring up, would be smart to watch the space. But they'd be even wiser to keep their money far away from these online playgrounds for at least another year or two.