Holiday Shopping Trends: Shop Early, Shop Often, Don't Spend As Much

(MoneyWatch)  With the election now all over but the shouting, predicting holiday sales becomes the new preoccupation. A slew of key indicators will hit this week, including October retail sales reports on Thursday, and Deloitte Consulting released its annual Holiday Survey.

Trees and snowpeople were already on display at the supermarket into which I dashed madly Friday afternoon for Halloween candy, which was being crowded out of the seasonal aisle by candy canes and Santa Clauses. (Meanwhile, the pharmacist was dressed as the Wicked Witch of the West. I want a much more benign character dispensing my medication.)

But it illustrates one popular strategy: get the merch onto the floor, because people are spreading out their holiday purchases, perhaps using cash to avoid a repeat of 2007: 11 percent of us are still paying off last year's holiday shopping.

Capitalizing on this trend, Toys R Us and Target have already dropped toy fliers into Sunday papers.

Retailer Daily summarizes Deloitte's 23rd annual holiday survey: People will cut back on travel and socializing, and buy presents for fewer people. Gift spending will fall 6.5 percent ?€" much less than other categories ?€" and respondents expect to spend about $532 on gifts this year.

Highlights:

• Almost six in 10 consumers (59%) expect to reduce their spending this holiday season, in keeping with sharply lower spending reported last week.
• Value stores, discounters, resale stores, and flea markets will pick up traffic.
• The eminently practical gift card remains a favorite, although Deloitte's Stacy Janiak predicts that more gift cards will be redeemed in January because respondents worry that stores might go out of business before they can spend their Christmas money.