Double Dip Recession?

By: Jill Schlesinger
Topics: Financial Decoder

This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

I always get nervous when three or more people who don't study the economy or financial markets say exactly the same thing. This past weekend, it was a teacher, a lawyer and a doctor, all of whom proclaimed: "we're definitely headed for a double-dip recession!"

(AP)

Every time someone says "double dip" I can't help think of a soft serve ice cream cone plunging into that delicious chocolate coating not once, but twice. That said, are fears of a double dip warranted?

One would have to be brain-dead to not consider the possibility of something bad - really bad, derailing the progress that has occurred since the beginning of this fiasco. Here's a just a few ideas to get you started: a commercial real estate collapse could make the residential market look like a walk in the park; unemployment could get much worse; a large multi-national bank bites the bullet; the Fed blows it; and the weekend favorite, this whole recovery is in your head.

Still, when lots of different kinds of people are talking about double-dips, or bubbles for that matter, those events don't usually occur. It's actually the opposite - when these same people are saying "it's different this time," or "we now understand how to better manage risk," or my favorite, "Jill, you're just too much of a bear to see the opportunity," that's when I start to really worry.

There are lots of reasons to expect that we're entering a slow growth economic phase, but I'm waiting for my three pals to tell me that the risk of double dip is nowhere on the horizon before I fully buy into the concept.

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(CBS)

Jill Schlesinger is the Editor-at-Large for CBS MoneyWatch.com. Prior to the launch of MoneyWatch, she was the Chief Investment Officer for an independent investment advisory firm. In her infancy, she was an options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York.

Jill Schlesinger
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Jill Schlesinger, CFP®, is the Editor-at-Large for CBS MoneyWatch. She covers the economy, markets, investing or anything else with a dollar sign. Prior to the launch of MoneyWatch in 2009, Jill was the chief investment officer for an independent investment advisory firm. In her infancy, she was an options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York.
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by girlmiami November 23, 2009 9:16 PM EST: The President claims we are on the way out of the recession with a 17.5 of unemployment released today. Why is the stock market doing so well and the average american is suffering.???? something is not right

The geatest problem with this is that these are not the usual unemployed. There is always a certain percentage of people who are unemployed , people who are not looking for work and people who wouldnt work if there were jobs.

These people going on unemployment now are people who have never been there before. These are the real Americans, working Americans. The backbone of America's work force. How can we be beating a recession with this many people out of work, and more losing their jobs every day?; Reply to this comment